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To: AntiGuv
First of all, there's every plausibility that life is common but that technological civilizations do not arise fairly frequently. Out of millions and millions of species on Earth, only one has developed a technological civilization. Moreover, that particular evolutionary tree took some 600 million years in order to accomplish the task..

Exactly! That's what the Fermi Paradox argument says - there are no other civilizations in the galaxy.

Secondly, you again assume not only that other species would have personality characteristics conducive to interstellar expansion, but also that interstellar travel, migration, colonization, and communication are all relatively plausible, effortless, and attractive.

I'm not assuming anything, I'm trying to reason it out. Read my post #32, penultimate paragraph, again for why I think your argument about other technological civilizations not colonizing the galaxy is wrong.

Secondly, you're lumping things together to make it sound more impressive, but in reality interstellar travel implies migration, colonization and communication. There's really only one bone of contention - is interstellar travel possible?

I never said they were plausible, effortless or attractive. The only one of those three conditions we can comment on with any certainty is "effortless" - certainly, it won't be!

47 posted on 06/04/2003 3:19:47 PM PDT by alnitak ("That kid's about as sharp as a pound of wet liver" - Foghorn Leghorn)
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To: alnitak
Within 10 years, an Earth-size planet -- the size that scientists consider the most likely to contain oceans and therefore life -- is expected to turn up in searches by two scheduled NASA probes. Astronomers hope to be able to detect life, or rule it out, in such places within 20 years.

They said earth size, earth like planet. They didn't say with people and freeways. A planet with life, and even civilizations is very possible. Just because we here on the tiny planet earth have not yet discovered it, does not mean it isn't so.

Exactly! That's what the Fermi Paradox argument says - there are no other civilizations in the galaxy.

I don't care what some guy on tiny planet earth says, he like everyone else, has not a clue if life actually exists in our galaxy or beyond. Not a clue. No one on this planet knows this. They can speculate, but that is all they are doing.

48 posted on 06/04/2003 3:28:32 PM PDT by Joe Hadenuf
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To: alnitak
That's what the Fermi Paradox argument says - there are no other civilizations in the galaxy

Actually, it doesn't say that. It asks why we don't see them here [on earth] now. There ought to be a lot of traffic, coming and going, it would be obvious. It also implies that we don't know what to look for.

53 posted on 06/04/2003 3:41:03 PM PDT by RightWhale (gazing at shadows)
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To: alnitak
Exactly! That's what the Fermi Paradox argument says - there are no other civilizations in the galaxy.

I am arguing that there may be currently few, not that there have been none, ever.

I'm not assuming anything, I'm trying to reason it out. Read my post #32, penultimate paragraph, again for why I think your argument about other technological civilizations not colonizing the galaxy is wrong.

Read my responses for why I think that your argument (the Fermi Paradox) is a reductive fallacy.

Secondly, you're lumping things together to make it sound more impressive, but in reality interstellar travel implies migration, colonization and communication. There's really only one bone of contention - is interstellar travel possible?

The Fermi Paradox reduces the variables to nothing more than:

If other civilizations arise, then at least one is likely to initiate exponential expansion. We do not see evidence of exponential expansion, therefore other civilizations do not arise.

To be clearer, the Fermi Paradox makes several problematic statements:

1) Once primitive life has emerged on a planet, it is likely to evolve into lifeforms with technological society.

2) If a civilization reaches a level of technological advancement equivalent to our own, it is likely to develop interstellar flight.

3) When it develops interstellar flight, a low-cost colonization process will be practical.

4) When interstellar colonization becomes practical, there is significant probability that the civilization will choose to do so.

5) If such a colonization wave crossed or had crossed the path of Earth, we would notice.

I never said they were plausible, effortless or attractive. The only one of those three conditions we can comment on with any certainty is "effortless" - certainly, it won't be!

In that case, so far as I can interpret, your conclusion - there are no other civilizations in the galaxy - does not follow from your premises. Well, it doesn't follow, in any event, because of inherent problems with the Fermi Paradox (itself a declaration of faith, not of rational judgment). Your premises just make it all the less likely that it follows..

57 posted on 06/04/2003 3:56:08 PM PDT by AntiGuv (™)
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To: alnitak
One minor modification.. Any particular conclusion from the Fermi Paradox is a declaration of faith, not the Fermi Paradox itself..
61 posted on 06/04/2003 4:32:15 PM PDT by AntiGuv (™)
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To: alnitak
There's really only one bone of contention - is interstellar travel possible?

It's possible with the technology we have now.

102 posted on 06/04/2003 11:24:43 PM PDT by donh (/)
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