Posted on 06/03/2003 12:18:38 PM PDT by jerseygirl
Time running out for North Korea solution-Perry
By Linda Sieg
TOKYO, June 3 Washington and its allies have months, not years, to prevent North Korea from becoming a serious nuclear power and sparking an atomic arms race in East Asia, former U.S. Defense Secretary William Perry said on Tuesday.
''The worst-case scenario I see is a major nuclear arms race unfolding in the Pacific. That's not a forecast, that's a logical train of events,'' Perry -- the architect of engagement with North Korea in the Clinton administration -- told Reuters.
''We have maybe half a year; the first month or two are more important than the last month or two in that half-year period,'' he said. ''We loose leverage each month that we delay.''
Perry, defence secretary during a similar crisis with North Korea a decade ago, also said Washington risked sending the wrong signals with its talk of realigning U.S. forces in Asia.
Those proposals, including changes in frontline forces on the North-South Korean border, are part of a broader look at U.S. forces worldwide aimed at creating a more mobile military capable of dealing with unpredictable threats.
''A few years ago, I thought we were on a resolution of our principle problem with North Korea, which is its nuclear weapons programme...Had that trend continued, I think a major realignment of our military forces would have been in order,'' Perry said.
''Now we are in a new nuclear crisis, and I myself would be reluctant to do anything that could be considered to be weakening our deterrence at this time,'' he added.
The latest crisis on the Korean peninsula erupted last year after U.S. officials said Pyongyang had admitted pursuing a secret nuclear arms programme in violation of a 1994 agreement.
Earlier on Tuesday, U.S. Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz -- winding up a six-day tour of Asia -- said plans to realign American military forces in Asia should not be delayed because of regional unease over North Korea's nuclear ambitions.
MONTHS, NOT YEARS Perry said Washington and its allies should designate the completion of reprocessing of spent nuclear fuel by North Korea as a ''red line'' that could warrant the use of force.
''Once the reprocessing is completed, our options of how to deal with the problem are considerably narrowed and considerably more unattractive,'' Perry said.
North Korean state media have issued conflicting statements on the country's nuclear status, at times accusing U.S. officials of lying about Pyongyang's declarations while also suggesting the North has already reprocessed plutonium for bombs.
Perry also said the United States should engage in direct negotiations with North Korea if Pyongyang agreed to freeze its nuclear programme, holding out the possibility of ''benefits'' if it agreed to abandon its atomic ambitions. ''That is the condition we made in 1994 and that is the condition we should make today -- freeze while talking,'' he said.
Wolfowitz said a speedy resolution to the North Korean crisis was impossible and that patience was essential.
In contrast, Perry said that once reprocessing was completed, ''we're looking at the prospect of half a dozen nuclear bombs by the end of the year.''
North Korea's decision to reopen its nuclear reactor at Yongbyon means it will be able to move to serial production of nuclear bombs, Perry said.
''What is pretty clear is that we will be faced with the spectre of another nuclear power which can use their weapons to threaten South Korea, to threaten Japan...with every prospect that they will sell some of that plutonium and nuclear bombs to the highest bidder so they might end up in American cities as well,'' he said.
Perry said putting pressure on North Korea through economic sanctions -- a move Washington and Tokyo are willing to consider if Pyongyang escalates the crisis -- was unlikely to succeed.
''The thought that we could head off this problem with economic pressure is optimistic to the point of being naive,'' he said. ''This is the country that has had people starving for years and still proceeded with this programme.''
I am tired of these Clintonistas offering oh-so-helpful comments after they had their turn at bat and soundly struck out.
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