Andy Grove: Tech is our power; Intel is an American Company; China May Overtake USA in 20 Years

PBS ^ | June 2, 2003 | Charlie Rose/Andrew Grove

[risk]

Article origin: http://www.nybooks.com/authors/277 Note: this article serves as a place holder since Charlie Rose's Andy Grove interview transcript isn't available yet. The two of them discussed Paul Kennedy's "Rise and Fall" at one point.

Paul Kennedy

Paul Kennedy, the J. Richardson Dilworth Professor of History and Director of International Security Studies at Yale is the author and editor of fifteen books, including The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers and Preparing for the Twenty-First Century. (November 2002)

November 7, 2002: The Modern Machiavelli

The Tragedy of Great Power Politics by John J. Mearsheimer

No Virtue Like Necessity: Realist Thought in International Relations Since Machiavelli by Jonathan Haslam

The Shield of Achilles: War, Peace, and the Course of History by Philip Bobbitt

August 12, 1999: In the Shadow of the Great War

The First World War by John Keegan

The Pity of War by Niall Ferguson

September 19, 1996: Doomsterism

The Ends of the Earth: A Journey at the Dawn of the 21st Century by Robert D. Kaplan

March 4, 1993: The American Prospect

February 11, 1993: AN APPEAL

February 11, 1993: Preparing for the 21st Century: Winners and Losers

October 11, 1990: IS THE US DECLINING?

June 28, 1990: Fin-de-Siècle America

The Myth of America's Decline: Leading the World Economy into the 1990s by Henry R. Nau

America's Economic Resurgence: A Bold New Strategy by Richard Rosecrance

Peril and Promise: A Commentary on America by John Chancellor

Bound to Lead: The Changing Nature of American Power by Joseph S. Nye Jr.

June 15, 1989: WHAT TO DO ABOUT DECLINE?

March 16, 1989: Can the US Remain Number One?

The Weary Titan: Britain and the Experience of Relative Decline, 1895–1905 by Aaron L. Friedberg

The Future of American Strategy by David C. Hendrickson

Thinking About America: The United States in the 1990s edited by Annelise Anderson, edited by Dennis L. Bark

Preventing World War III: A Realistic Grand Strategy by David M. Abshire

May 12, 1988: Not So Grand Strategy

Discriminate Deterrence: Report of the Commission on Integrated Long-Term Strategy co-chaired by Fred C. Iklé, by Albert Wohlstetter

March 14, 1985: The Reasons Why

The Origins of the First World War by James Joll

Bibliography^*

Preparing for the Twenty-First Century (1993)
The Rise and Fall of British Naval Mastery (1991)
The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Onflict from 1500 to 2000 (1989)
The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Onflict from 1500 to 2000 (1988)
The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Onflict from 1500 to 2000 (1987)
The Rise and Fall of British Naval Mastery (1986)
Strategy and Diplomacy 1870-1945: Eight Studies (1984)
The Rise and Fall of British Naval Mastery (1983)
Strategy and Diplomacy, 1870-1945: Eight Studies (1983)
The Realities Behind Diplomacy: Background Influences on British Xternal Policy, 1865-1980 (1981)
The Realities Behind Diplomacy: Background Influences on British Xternal Policy, 1865-1980 (1981)
The Rise of the Anglo-German Antagonism, 1860-1914 (1980)
The Rise and Fall of British Naval Mastery (1976)
The Rise and Fall of British Naval Mastery (1976)
The Samoan Tangle: A Study in Anglo-German-American Relations, 1878 1900 (1974)

^* The links above point to Barnes & Noble, and may not always work, as a given book or edition may now be out of print or listed under a different ISBN. If you experience problems, try searching the Barnes & Noble catalog by author and title. If you discover errors, you can help us fix them by sending the bad links, and the correct ISBNs for each, to web@nybooks.com. This bibliography is provided as a service to readers; The New York Review of Books does not profit from the purchase of any of the books above.

[risk]

I found this interview fascinating. I would like to write more about it now, but the interview isn't finished and the transcripts aren't available yet.

In short, this is what immigrant Andrew Grove had to say to Charlie about America's zenith. He survived the Nazi invasion of Hungary as a child, and then escaped the communists 16 years later.

1. Technology and economy comprise most of America's power. Really? How about our legal documents and our passion for freedom?
2. America may be at its zenith now, able to spend $100 billion on a war. All powers decline, and so will America.
3. Our decline is foreshadowed by the lessening of interest in engineering/science among our university students (5% he argues).
4. China is likely to overtake us, maybe in 20 years. China is a 5,000 year-old civilization which has most often dominated human progress.

Grove cites Paul Kennedy's writings in support of his thesis. It was a provocative interview with simple ideas. Grove wants to be clear that he supports America through Intel. I'm looking forward to the next interview.

[risk]

Strategic education/technology/firmness/resolve ping.

[LarryM]

When has Paul Kennedy ever been right about anything?

[risk]

I haven't read anything by him yet... What sort of problems have you seen with his pieces?

The idea that America could face a threat from China right now seems realistic on more than one level. And we have acheived power through our technology and economic capacity. It's clear that China is moving toward a kind of statist capitalism (i.e. national socialism) simultaneously to massive technological investment.

We need to get our kids into college studying technology and science.

[the gillman@blacklagoon.com]

And what will they do when they graduate? Move to India for work?

[nypokerface]

This is the same nonsense that they said about Japan back in the 80's.

[LS]

You are exactly right---I would add, faith in Jehovah God---and the reason Grove can be partially right too is that our LAWS and our FREEDOM will always encourage the best to immigrate here. We could, as of tomorrow, change our immigration to allow in only engineers or scientists (as does Australia). The problem with that selective immigration is that free markets and technical innovation depend on surprise, the unexpected, and the (often) uneducated. The guy who invented the LED was just here on campus: education? High school.

It is precisely our freedom that will keep us technologically advanced, not the technology that keeps us free.

[LS]

I encourage my students to go into sciences and technology---and it appears (just my experience) that a few more are.

China "appears" to be a threat today the same way we were utterly panicked about Japan 20 years ago. China, overall, is NOT FREE, and an unfree society has limits as to its progress. It can make some good tanks, for a while, and steal a few things, but over 20-30 years, it cannot sustain growth.

The info I've seen on studies of China say that ALL of its GDP growth from 1990-2000 was the result of "labor inputs," basically adding more workers. That is not PRODUCTIVITY increase, and does not equal wealth expansion.

[Pietro]

"It is precisely our freedom that will keep us technologically advanced, not the technology that keeps us free."

An absolutely stellar statement.

[GWB00]

China, overall, is NOT FREE, and an unfree society has limits as to its progress

You are absolutely correct about freedom being the main ingredient to a nation that sustains economic viability

Also, your point about allowing immigration from all points of life is valid (as long as it is legal). The owner of our company, who recently passed away was a German immigrant, who came to the United States when he was 26 years old. He went to school until he was 13 years old. He founded two extremely successful companies, both of which are market leaders and one that is now being screwed up by a Fortune 500 Company to whom he sold it. (not the one I work for).

At his memorial service, the man who gave his eulogy recounted all of his successes and attributed them to his drive and this FREEDOM that the country provided him

Show me a person in China who has remotely accomplished his success?

He became a very wealthy man and everytime I hear that the wealthy do not deserve a tax cut, I think about his life.

[Pearls Before Swine]

We need to get our kids into college studying technology and science.

Yes, but they need to think they'll be rewarded for doing so. If you look at the rewards society provides, it makes sense for the individual to consider law or business and leave at least the low and moderate tech jobs for immigrants or offshore labor. I don't like it, and I think its bad for us as a country, but that's the way it is. As a consequence, science is attractive to those that really like it far above all else, but those that can go in other directions often do.

[Zathras]

Dr Grove is one of those rare Silicon Valley CEO's who is not driven by the need for money, power or recognition.
For years he drove a 10 year old Mercedes to work and no one knew anything about where he lived or his past history in Hungary.

Even though he was hard to work for, I had great respect for him.

I'm sorry to say Craig Barrett is NOT the same man.

[eddiespaghetti]

When has Paul Kennedy ever been right about anything?


HE PUBLICLY AMENDED HIS STATEMENT ABOUT "IMPERIAL OVERREACH" A FEW MONTHS AGO, WHEN (SO HE SAID) HE REALIZED THAT THE US WAS SPENDING MUCH LESS OF ITS GDP ON DEFENSE THAN THE OTHER PREVIOUS "DECLINING" POWERS HAD DONE IN THEIR HISTORY.

[LS]

My grandfather came to the U.S. from Germany at a young age. He was never "wealthy," but he had a successful farm/ranch, and his sons became moderately wealthy.

My concern is that the natural inclination is to say, "let's only admit the 'best and the brightest,'" yet it is the nature of capitalism and success that the best and brightest may usually succeed, but are often not the titans of industry or those who make the breakthroughs.

As long as we remain free, we are a beacon to the world for every aspiring person. Yes, we will get the bad with the good---those who want to cheat the welfare system or criminals (1850s New York was no different).

We must police our borders and insist that NO MORE than the # we arrive at can come in; but within that number, we should admit whoever, with an equal % from every nation.

[duckln]

Bump

Good show. Grove is going to be on again tonight to finnish up.

[Frumious Bandersnatch]

China is a hollow shell. A parasite if you will. The only way that they are going to have a chance against the U.S. is to become a constitutional republic. And that, boys and girls, is going to be one painful proposition.

[risk]

I would add, faith in Jehovah God...

I'm not the believing type, but I do think that our commitment to religious freedom has allowed us to pursue spirituality in a way that has strengthened the fiber of our nation without oppressing others. One could argue that the Pilgrims were a bit uptight, but we've continued to move up and forward in our tolerance.

One interesting take on this is the idea that the Gunpowder Plot had a relationship to the tumult over religious tolerance among the Puritans in England, which led to the Mayflower and the landing at Plymouth Rock. The Gunpowder Plot involved an insurrection over the state mandate for a national religion imposed by the king for his own convenience, and the Catholic rejection of it. As it had been a component of the Puritan rejection of the English Church, the American founding fathers also decided to prevent such a calamity in our government.

So freedom to practice religion (and freedom from others' practices) has been an essential part of our government's underpinnings, and continues to make us great today. I think one of the most importand freedoms we hold dear is the freedom to follow one's own conscience, so long as it doesn't harm other people.

[optik_b]

What is Craig Barrett like?