3 local leaders may eye Senate (Foley, Hastings, WELDON)

The Tribune (TCPalm.com) ^ | May 25, 2003 | Joel Eskovitz

[JohnnyZ]

Treasure Coast's political face will be hugely affected if Reps. Mark Foley, Alcee Hastings and Dave Weldon all decide to run

By Joel Eskovitz staff writer May 25, 2003

WASHINGTON -- Sen. Bob Graham's decision to seek the presidency could have huge ramifications along the Treasure Coast, where three area congressmen are contemplating replacing him.

Their choices could set off a chain reaction, affecting everything from who sits in any number of elected offices to federal funding for local projects.

If Reps. Mark Foley, Alcee Hastings and Dave Weldon all decide to seek the Senate seat in 2004, the region may be in for a completely fresh slate of congressmen, albeit without the experience or influence of their predecessors.

"That's always a consideration, is that you lose that 1-2-3 punch that the area has in Washington," said Susan MacManus, a political science professor at the University of South Florida in Tampa. "You lose those contacts and that network a bit. That certainly would put a scare into local people who are used to having that clout and three people who are used to working with each other."

Foley and Weldon serve on the two most influential committees in the House -- Ways & Means and Appropriations, respectively. Neither committee features a freshman member.

Losing an advocate for local projects in those committees could affect the level of federal dollars sent south, said Kevin Hill, associate professor of political science at Florida International University in Miami.

"It would be particularly acute for Weldon's district because there's so much federal money in Brevard at NASA," Hill said. "When you have a lot of federal money in your district and you have a rookie congressman, you risk losing out."

Making the decision

MacManus notes it took Bill McBride one year and millions of dollars to become a household name as the Democratic candidate for governor in 2002, and he lost.

Earning name recognition in what could be a crowded field behooves candidates to declare their intentions early, although Graham's decision will play the biggest factor in who enters. The state's senior senator has refused to close the door on a Senate race, declaring only that he is seeking the presidency.

If Graham doesn't run, Foley and former Longwood Rep. Bill McCollum are in on the Republican side, and Reps. Peter Deutsch of Hollywood and Allen Boyd of Monticello, Miami-Dade Mayor Alex Penelas and University of South Florida President Betty Castor are likely candidates for the Democratic nomination.

While the two Republicans would probably stay in the race if Graham runs, the declared Democratic candidates would almost assuredly defer to the incumbent Graham.

Hastings, who ran for Senate in 1969, wouldn't take on Graham but is considering seeking the seat if it remains open. The Miramar Democrat has been consulting "all the people you'd expect him to talk to," but has yet to set a deadline on a decision, said his spokesman, Fred Turner.

Weldon also is mulling over his options and will likely not reach a decision until after his return from a congressional trip to Uganda at the end of the month.

Tom Lockwood, head of the Indian River County Republican Party, said "the odds are very strong" that Weldon will run, adding that the Melbourne Republican's biggest concerns are making sure he has enough sources of funding and the support of his constituents.

Florida law dictates federal candidates have to declare their candidacy by May 7, 2004, although a bill in the Florida Legislature could push that up two months to March. Candidates, including Graham, cannot seek two different federal offices at the same time.

The domino effect

Weldon first floated the idea he was considering a run for the Senate on May 7. It didn't take long for phone lines around his district to start lighting up.

"Literally within hours, the dominoes had started to line up," said Charlie Sembler, a former state legislator and current Indian County tax collector. "I had not even read the paper, and I had people calling me."

At least five people contacted him about jumping up to higher seats, a scenario that has been playing out along the Treasure Coast. Graham's White House aspirations have led everyone from U.S. House members to state House and Senate members to county commissioners and other locally elected officials to consider raising their profile.

[JohnnyZ]

Go Dave Go! US Rep. Dave Weldon is an ideal conservative, a pro-life doctor and a veteran who can win in November!

[Princeliberty]

Weldon is the man for Florida for sure!

[JohnnyZ]

Tom Lockwood, head of the Indian River County Republican Party, said "the odds are very strong" that Weldon will run for the US Senate in Florida

PING!!! for the real candidate we've been waiting for!

[JohnnyZ]

Weldon is the man for Florida for sure!

You do know he's Mike Foster's cousin, right?

Ha ha that was a joke.

[Joe Boucher]

Foley is my congress critter and he has done a good job. Supports vets. and doesn't waste my money.
We'll seeeeee.

[Dan from Michigan]

Weldon would be my first choice.

[Pubbie]

Let's see who we have that's running so far:

Jim Demint in South Carolina
Richard Burr in North Carolina
Mac Collins in Georgia
Jack Ryan in Illinois (Rove said that Ryan was his second choice to run after Jim Edgar)

For the Probably will run category we have:

Dave Weldon in Florida
Jim Gibbons in Nevada
Asa Hutchinson in Arkansas (He said it would be hard for him to say no if the White House asked him to run against Blanche Lincoln.)
John Thune in South Dakota.

Overall we look good.

Here are the Wild cards:

Indiana: if Bayh decides to retire this is an easy pickup but I don't think he will unless there are major retirements like Hollings.

Lousiana: Tossup if Breaux retires but I don't think he will.

North Dakota: A good chance if Ed Schafer runs, he hasn't definitvely stated he won't challenge Dorgan.

California: Our only hope is Arnold Schwarzenneger, every other candidate except Condi Rice (who won't run) is too light weight to defeat the Mercilious Campaigner Boxer. Unfortunately Ahnold seems set to run as Governor in '06, However he did meet with Sen George Allen, which raises the possibility he is looking at a Senate run. Arnold may be a RINO but he's still a GOP Superstar, and even a Chaffee is infinitely preferable to Boxer.

[Princeliberty]

Why would Hastings run? He give up his seat
and have no chance of winning.
And he got into general election he would
make McBride look like a powerhouse
candidate by comparision.

I think he should go for it, but he
really been hitting the Drugs big time
if he thinks there could Senator Hastings.

[ijcr]

Ditto. Foley is popular here in FP and PSL.

[Pubbie]

Oh and we have an excellent chance at taking down Feingold, IF we can find a candidate to run against him. So far, the GOP hasn't had any luck, but there are 4 people that have said no, who are capable of taking out Feingold. They are:

Tommy Thompson
Mark Neuman
Paul Ryan
Mark Green

All have said no, but I've got to believe we change one of their minds to battle Feingold.

[ForOurFuture]

Good news. Weldon would bring The Liberty Committee to the Senate.

[dwills]

rumors are circulating on o'reilly etc. that foley is gay but afraid to come out of the closet

[fieldmarshaldj]

I'd love to see Weldon in the Senate, BUT, I think he may be too Conservative to win statewide in FL (more so than McCollum was). Personally, I'd love to see Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart take a run (NOT his brother Lincoln, who is borderline RINO).

[fieldmarshaldj]

Oh, if he isn't gay, I'll eat my lavender pillow. If he doesn't want to come out of the closet, that's his business. My beef with him is that we ought to have someone a tad more Conservative for the Senate seat.

[Kuksool]

Go Dr. Weldon! I hope the GOP primary will not be nasty. If Foley loses to Weldon, the media shall complain about the GOP being a haven for hateful bigots (Not voting for a gay candidate is homophobic). Foley supporters may well vote for the RAT candidate just to stick it to the "fundies". On the other hand, if Foley wins the primary, the "religious right" may refuse to vote for Foley just to stick it to the "Godless RINOS". Also, consider the fact that the FL primaries are held in September. This means the primary winner has little time to raise money and introduce himself to the general public. These are factors everyone should consider in the FL Senate race.

[votelife]

I hope Rove and Jeb intervene and clear the primary for a conservative, my first choice being Weldon.

Mel Martinez as a possible #2, but I don't know enough about him.

I think the gay issue will hurt Foley, so I'd rather see Foley stay where he is.

[LdSentinal]

Hastings! LMAO. Sadly, El Impeacho is probably the most ethical Democrat in Florida apart from Boyd.

[JohnnyZ]

BUT, I think he may be too Conservative to win statewide in FL

Oh, what you you know about politics anyway? ;)

I think Alcee Hastings would have a great shot at the Rat nomination, especially if it's a 4- or 5-way affair (Panelas, Deutsch, thateducationwoman, Boyd). He'd almost certainly be the only black candidate and is a hero to liberal blacks.

[Coop]

I hope Rove and Jeb intervene and clear the primary

I hope the White House keeps its nose out of the primary cycles... for a change.

But I'm not holding my breath.

[KQQL]

Foley or McCollum will lose to a RAT...

WHy you ask...

FOley is too moderate for many conservative voters.......and
McCollum is not liked by Cuban Americans.........due to some immigration stuff he passed,,,which hurt cubans..

So, Weldon what be a better choice....................for RRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR or DDDDDDDD will win