Is SARS a precursor to pandemic?

The Star.com ^ | May 26, 2003 | Raywat Deonandan

[Judith Anne]

FYI

[Judith Anne]

It will be important to see how far the latest breakout goes before drawing a lot of conclusions...this doctor talks as though it's over...

[doom n gloom]

We're all going to die!!

[Judith Anne]

Good morning newbie. What are you doing here?

[doom n gloom]

Heh! I just couldn't resist since the thread seemed so apropos to my new moniker.. Sorry for trying to make a joke!

[doom n gloom]

On a more serious note, it's yet quite unclear (as you seek to imply) that SARS is anywhere close to having run its course. Whereas SARS appears at least somewhat less virulent than influenza, its mortality rate is in fact substantially higher than was that of the Spanish Flu. By all accounts, SARS entered widespread transmission well toward the end of the 02-03 cold/flu season.

It yet remains to be seen how easily contained it will prove (the recent outbreak in Toronto is not promising) or how extensive its impact once it runs a full cold season course. Moreover, it's an open question how devastating SARS may prove once it enters African or South Asian or even Latino populations that are both much more open than the East Asian outbreak regions and have far inferior medical services.

I'm not predicting anything in particular, just suggesting that no one really knows...yet.

[Judith Anne]

I certainly do not seek to imply that the outbreak is anywhere near over. I am greatly concerned that the US will see several serious outbreaks this fall.

You might want to check out some of the SARS threads, to learn more about my position on SARS.

[MeneMeneTekelUpharsin]

A true pandemic will quickly overcome extant resources. Any given city will not be able to draw additional resources from provincial or federal sources, since all areas will be affected simultaneously.

What an astute observation. Respirators (ventilators) will be in EXTREME demand. Food for thought.

[Judith Anne]

I read somewhere on these threads that Tommy Thompson ordered 3000 new respirators/ventilators for distribution around the US "soon." Frankly, I wonder if that will be enough.

[doom n gloom]

No - I meant that you seek to imply that SARS has not run its course (contrary to the article's implication); I misplaced the parenthetical. We aren't getting off to a promising start - let's start over! Hi, Judith, I'm doom'n'gloom & I'm new around here.. Nice to meet ya! ;)

[harpseal]

With a death rate of around 6 per cent, this translates to 12,000 lives having been saved by effective epidemic containment practices.

I note the good doctor has mistated the death rate from SARS.

[Judith Anne]

Hiya, d&g. Welcome aboard. ;-D

[MeneMeneTekelUpharsin]

I read somewhere on these threads that Tommy Thompson ordered 3000 new respirators/ventilators for distribution around the US "soon." Frankly, I wonder if that will be enough.

Difficult to tell. Asia needs hundreds more already, particularly in China. If it begins to spread here, the demand will be outrageous. As a nurse, you know that 10-12% of SARS patients require mechanical support to breath. In spite of the sorrow of this disease, wise individuals take lemons and make lemonaide. Or, like the Chinese character for crisis...must be formed by using the character for opportunity. Perhaps we understand each other better now.

[Judith Anne]

Exactly, and so far, those lives may still be at risk...

[Judith Anne]

Actually, I thought the figure was 20% needing mechanical support...but I could be wrong...

[joesnuffy]

Disarray brought on by the epidemic also caused the staff of another hospital to store a friend's terminally ill and bedridden father in the morgue while he awaited transportation to his home.

Disarray?....sounds french How did "Dissaray" cause the staff to store a living human being..terminally ill and bedridden in "the morgue"...

Socialized medicine having lead to the hiring of complete -callous -incompetants maybe...

Hillary care strikes again

[Judith Anne]

I know what you mean. That is so bizarre...if Toronto is so well-equipped and so on top of this "outbreak" then where did all that "disarray" come from? /sarc

[Judith Anne]

bump

[aristeides]

This reads as though it was written before the reemergence of SARS in Toronto.

[Judith Anne]

Now that you mention it, it does...