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To: arthurus
As Alan Blinder of the Federal Reserve Board noted on CNBC earlier this week, it's perfectly conceivable that the American economy could feature price deflation alongside a depreciating currency. Imports/Exports only comprise some 10% of the U.S. economy - with only about 5-6% once parsing out nations (such as China) which peg their currency to the dollar or energy imports which are globally priced in dollars. In short, the absolute size of the U.S. economy is such that only extreme global economic pressures are likely to have a meaningful impact on domestic inflation/deflation.
22 posted on 05/25/2003 7:29:23 PM PDT by AntiGuv (™)
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To: AntiGuv
It's perfectly conceivable that the American economy could feature price deflation alongside a depreciating currency.

Count on price inflation (in education, health care, other things that aren't imported from China), price deflation (on imports and industries with over capacity), gold inflation (the ultimate store of value now that paper is going out and "things" are coming in), money supply inflation (a 90 year trend likely to continue until we have the will to stop it), and continuing devaluation of the dollar against other major currencies (a long-term 30 year trend that would have been a 60 year trend, but for Bretton Woods).

Primary trend for next 10 years = Inflation or depression. There is no other way out

38 posted on 05/25/2003 8:52:21 PM PDT by Deuce
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To: AntiGuv
The term price deflation is confusing and should not be used. Inflation and deflation are monetary terms referring to the amount of liquidity in the system, the amount of money relative to that amount required to keep the unit of currency stable.

In an inflation some prices fall. The general rise is an average and is not a uniform rise of everything and some prices rise sooner and/or faster than others. Inflation makes for uncertainty which causes people to change their buying habits to try to minimize their losses to the evanescing dollar.

As imports become more expensive fewer dollars are spent for them and more dollars are spent on the available domestic goods which will drive domestic prices up. The devaluation is an injection of inordinate amounts of dollars into the system that ultimately must be spent in the American economy and will drive up the cost of everything. These things don't change in an instant. Producers delay raising their prices as their profits decline in real terms because they are afraid of losing customers, especially if they are the first to raise. Manufacturers switch to lower cost materials that might be of lesser quality and that increase in nominal price, too. That repression of inflation's effects will end at some point and prices will make up for lost ground in a visible inflation that seems radical because prices are making up in a short time for the nominal cost increases that have been moving right along.

The inflation initiated now will bite hard in a year or two, in time to trash Bush's 2nd term, a time when we should be consolidating large across-the-board political and Constitutional gains.

Consider also that the decrease in the price of oil due to expanded production and expectations of greatly expanded production will mask inflation by reducing real costs of everything that has to be transported. With stable money the oil price drop would result a wide decrease in the price level, not deflation because the resources not going to obtain oil are available as capital for the rest of the economy. Price decreases due to deflation reflect a decrease in the available money to purchase assets and there is no excess available as capital.

63 posted on 05/26/2003 6:38:14 AM PDT by arthurus
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