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I had read, don't remember where, that the T's were planning an offensive, possibly hoping to push all the way into Tajikistan. They figured that without Massoud, the Northern Alliance would shatter into its constituent parts. Without us, it very well might have.

It is plain to me that OBL did not expect an effective response from us. Of course, he may not have expected his own attack to be as successful as it was, an airliner into a building should have been very dramatic, great television, it would have attracted a lot of followers and a lot of bady needed donations, but I question if he knew the buildings would collapse the way they did? They were, after all, designed to withstand an airliner impact. Supposedly.

An attack on the US seems counter-productive if you are on the edge of successfully conquering Central Asia, he had rebellions going on all over the region, and until GW we had looked the other way or even supported them. Attacking us was insane. But thats the thing about being guru to your own cult, sometimes you start to believe your own sermons.

And, its just possible, that one of his donors was another megalomaniac with a taste for payback, living in Baghdad, who wanted something dramatic and was willing to pay for it, as long as his own fingerprints were not too evident.

That I can understand. But otherwise the attack on the US was irrational, completely counterproductive in terms of his other insurgencies.

Here's the article. LATimes link still good, better print it out though if you want to keep it.

Officials Reveal Bin Laden Plan: Terror leader hoped to create Islamic empire 3/18/02

Plans are often criticized as unreal because they seem "dumb" in retrospect. But that doesn't mean they were plans.

Osama was blinded by his need for the large gesture, belief in American weakness, that congress would have been wiped out to and who knows what else. Plus he was a terrorist, not a military strategist. The T-Ban offensive was a failure in the Panshir valley. Then he worried that Pakistan might be a problem.

I forget when Johnny Taliban was positioned in the north...but many were before 9/11 - aimed at an easterly attack north of the Hindu Kush, and maybe at Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.