Posted on 05/24/2003 7:09:49 PM PDT by DTA
George Soros: A chance for soft power in the Balkans
By George Soros
Published: May 22 2003 20:43 | Last Updated: May 22 2003 20:43
Yet the Balkans are a vital part of Europe. The US has made clear its intention to diminish its involvement in the region, so the European Union must take the lead. In the past, the EU has responded to negative developments; now it must articulate a positive vision.
Fighting in the Balkans has subsided but future peace is far from assured. Kosovo remains unresolved; the union between Serbia and Montenegro is tenuous at best; the Ohrid agreement between Macedonia's Slavic majority and Albanian minority is under attack from defeated politicians who are now trying to divide the country; and the Dayton peace agreement, which ended the fighting in Bosnia, is far too complicated.
The EU summit on June 21 in Thessaloniki offers an ideal opportunity to carve out a meaningful agenda for the Balkans. The summit bridges the presidencies of Greece and Italy, both of which have a critical interest in the region. Thereafter, the EU will be too preoccupied with its own constitutional problems and the accession of 10 new members to have time to deal with the Balkans in a coherent fashion.
The EU has so far tried to defer the problem of Kosovo by preserving a non-existent status quo. That was why a new union between Serbia and Montenegro was imposed. These policies have retarded recovery. The EU should now spell out how to resolve the outstanding issues to remove obstacles to democratic development.
It should endorse eventual independence for Kosovo, subject to safeguards for Serbian and other minorities. The United Nations should transfer power to the Kosovars with the clear aim of preparing Kosovo for independence. The union between Serbia and Montenegro should remain, but the EU should not oppose its dissolution when the three-year term expires. Bosnia and Herzegovina should be encouraged to revise the Dayton constitution that created a state too expensive and inefficient to function.
After these modifications, the EU conference should reaffirm the territorial integrity of all political units in south-east Europe within existing borders. This would help allay fears - particularly for Macedonia - that Kosovo independence means the further fracturing of Balkan states. It would also be helpful if the EU finally settled the controversy over the name Macedonia.
The EU will then need to rethink its main policy instruments: stabilisation and association agreements with individual countries; a network of bilateral, free-trade agreements; and financial assistance through the European Commission's Cards programme. These are working, but should be supplemented.
The stabilisation agreements have helped to create a framework for co-operation with the EU, but the process has been too slow to have much impact. An optimistic timescale for EU membership is 2007 for Croatia, 2010 for Serbia, Montenegro, Macedonia and Albania, and perhaps 2015 for Bosnia and Kosovo. The EU should provide a roadmap for membership. Otherwise, the countries of the region will lose motivation to persist with painful but necessary reforms.
The stability pact countries - the five western Balkan states, Romania, Bulgaria and Moldova - have signed 21 bilateral free trade agreements. The EU has extended trade preferences to the five western Balkan countries, but that does not create a free trade zone within the region because the various bilateral agreements require different certificates of origin for imported goods. The EU should take the lead in harmonising customs procedures and upgrading them to an acceptable level.
The Cards programme was front-loaded and declines until the EU budget cycle ends in 2006. Future funding is uncertain, and threatens a serious economic crisis for Bosnia and Kosovo. As part of its roadmap, the EU should offer new forms of assistance. The unspent portion of the pre-accession funds for new members could be redirected to the western Balkans.
Because of their budgetary difficulties, Germany and other member states are likely to resist these proposals. As a result, prospects for a coherent Balkan policy at the Thessaloniki summit could be lost. That would be a pity. The EU ought to show that it can foster democratic development in south-east Europe. This would pose an attractive alternative to building democracy by military force.
The writer is chairman of Soros Fund Management and founder of the Open Society Institute
Anyone interested in investing in Quantum?
This might be payback time for those burned by Soros and his shysters.
world-known philantropist and respected investor who respect and supports American values sounds more appropriate.
and here I thought it was Saudi money that bought out those cheap hookers Lantos and Hyde. My apologies to the Saudi scum.
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