Economic conditions too tough for Japan to conduct manned space missions

The dream of a Japanese manned space mission is unlikely to get off the ground in the foreseeable future because the prolonged economic slump is limiting Japan's space activities, the newly-appointed head of the nation's revamped space agency said Friday.

"Manned flights will naturally be part of our discussions" in drawing up the strategies of the new body, the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, or JAXA, said Shuichiro Yamanouchi, currently president of the National Space Development Agency of Japan (NASDA). "But considering Japan's economy at the moment and the size of the space exploration budget, it has to be said we are in such a severe situation that we cannot say it (a manned space journey) is a matter of course," he said.

NASDA is due to merge with two other institutions -- the Institute of Space and Astronautical Science (ISAS) and the National Aerospace Laboratory of Japan -- to create JAXA on October 1 as part of the government's rationalisation efforts. The new body's name and logo were unveiled Friday at a press conference following Yamanouchi's appointment on Tuesday as JAXA chief. "I think Japan has just caught up with the world in space development ... our biggest task is to find out the area where we can develop a technology that could become a world beater," he said.

NASDA has sent up five of Japan's domestically-developed H-2A large rockets, the fifth generation of its mainstay space launch vehicles, with the latest blast-off in March carrying Japan's first spy satellites. Japan's hopes of eventually gaining a slice of the commercial satellite launch market are riding on it establishing a record of successes.

ISAS, affiliated with the education and science ministry, launched a mid-size M-5 rocket on May 9 in an ambitious, four-year project to bring asteroid samples back to Earth for the first time. The National Aerospace Laboratory has focussed its efforts on the development of next-generation space and aeronautical technologies.

The combined budgets of the three bodies were 185.6 billion yenbillion dollars) in the financial year to March, roughly one tenth of the 15.5 billion dollars proposed for NASA's budget this year by US President George W. Bush in February. The budget for the new organisation is subject to negotiation with the government.

Yamanouchi, 69, spent his career at Japanese National Railways and then East Japan Railway after the state-run company's privatisation in 1987. He has served as NASDA president since July 2002. He confessed stress made him ill two years ago ahead of the first launch of the H-2A. "My condition is better now that we have had five successful launches, but it may worsen again" due to the pressures arising from the establishment of the new agency, he quipped.

Japan might consider large-scale space resource development as the permanent solution to their resource scarcity problem. They might consider asteroid mining. If Japan continues to let their lack of natural resources be their limit and doesn't boldly develop their space program, they will remain forever under these constraints. The plums go to the bold.

Maybe the US will learn from Japan, that an imperial government run space program is a loosing proposition when the country's economy is in a long term decline. Hopefully both countries will wake up and realize that the commercial sector is where the growth will come from, if they will only let it bloom instead of treating it as a bonzi tree.

Japan could be bold. They certainly have the capability to move suddenly with vigor and surprise. Without a doubt, if the top decision-makers see this has a decent probability of success they will decide. Of course, they have incomplete information up there at the highest levels, but the new PM is trying to remedy that. Oops, got to go. One of the garden rocks seems to have shifted out of position. Later.

4 posted on 05/25/2003 12:05:02 PM PDT by RightWhale (Theorems link concepts; proofs establish links)

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