I think part of what we're seeing, though, has nothing to do with race and everything to do with the Baby Boom causing colleges to be overbuilt. With the reduced demand now that the rabbit has gone through the python (the Baby Boomlet of the offspring of the Boomers just didn't produce the same kind of numbers) colleges below the first rank are out touting for customers.
My daughter is a freshman in high school who scored very well on her PSAT and the Duke Talent Search/SAT. Every week the mail brings a new glossy color brochure from some college or other, inviting her to summer school, pre-college courses for credit, etc. The colleges are on a serious campaign to rope student prospects in early. (It won't work with my girl. She prefers to spend summers rock climbing, kayaking, and hiking the AT. She just got hired as an instructor for her high school's "Discovery" program - sort of Outward Bound for Everybody culminating in a five day backpack trip.)
Don't take the glossy brochure and the like from the collges seriously. My daughter, graduating from high school next month, got the same thing in bales. She was also solicited by at least a hundred to two hundred colleges. Most of which she wouldn't even think of considering. The fact is, if you have a bright child with good grades, test scores and some sports or extra curriculars, there are only about 350 colleges and universities that are on the radar screen. Of those, you will self-eliminate all but 50 or so pretty quickly. Then you'll compare your daughter's interests and profile with the schools strengths and profiles and come up with a short list of maybe 15-20 that you'll be looking at fairly seriously by junior year, perhaps visiting most of them, but at least spending real time on their web sites and with their viewbooks. By senior year, you'll have a list of 5-10 that she'll apply to, and you may find one or two unexpected possiblities that come up in unusual ways.
Chances are [unless your daughter has an "ivy only" mentality and doesn't have the qualifications (i.e. not only the grades and scores, but a serious sport or legacy status)] she'll be accepted at at least 2-3 on her list and have a choice of colleges at which she will be very happy.