Posted on 05/22/2003 10:44:17 PM PDT by LdSentinal
Former Gov. Christie Whitman's departure from the Bush administration adds a new element of political intrigue in New Jersey.
Could she be the candidate behind whom a splintered and out-of-power state Republican Party coalesces in a future statewide election?
Or have the bridges that Whitman burned in her party - and the savaging of her gubernatorial record by the Democrats - made a political comeback unlikely?
Whitman, 56, said yesterday that she would leave her job as administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency to spend more time with her family, and she has given no indication that a return to politics is in her plans.
Those who have been closest to Whitman tend to believe her.
"I'd be willing to bet the house that elective office is not in her future," said Tom Wilson, a Republican consultant and Whitman's campaign manager in 1997.
Citing Whitman's withdrawal from the 2000 U.S. Senate campaign, Wilson added, "I don't get the sense that somebody who passed up a golden opportunity to run for an open seat would be interested in seeking elective office ever again."
But with a gaping power vacuum in the New Jersey GOP, few are willing to rule out Whitman's return.
"Christie Whitman may have made a few enemies, but the Republicans in New Jersey don't have many first-string players," said David Rebovich, a political scientist at Rider University in Lawrenceville, N.J.
"She's a moderate female Republican who showed she can win statewide races," he added. "I wouldn't be surprised if Republicans approached her in future years."
If so, Whitman would have to overcome smoldering resentment among some Republicans angered by what they view as her dismissive treatment of the GOP's legislative leaders when she was governor.
Critics say she failed to build the party during her tenure, which began after her 1993 election and ended when she took the EPA job with a year left in her second term, and that she nominated state Supreme Court justices out of sync with the party.
"For a party out of power, we'd be doing great if it wasn't for Peter Verniero and Debbie Poritz," said William Palatucci, finance chairman for the state GOP.
He was referring to two Whitman-appointed Supreme Court justices who delivered rulings that favored the Democrats in two politically critical cases. The first allowed a redistricting plan that helped the Democrats assume control of the Assembly last year, and the second permitted Frank Lautenberg to replace Robert Torricelli on last year's U.S. Senate ballot.
Whitman's abortion-rights stance and generally moderate-to-liberal views also make her anathema to the GOP's conservative wing.
The most likely scenario for a Whitman return would be a run for the U.S. Senate in 2006. Whitman would be a natural to challenge Democrat Jon S. Corzine's reelection bid, said Lawrence Weitzner, a Princeton-based GOP consultant.
Whitman, he said, would bring "instant credibility, high name I.D., and instant access to money" to the race.
"She has her detractors," Weitzner said, "but she's run successfully for governor two times, and that speaks volumes."
The 2006 Senate nomination, in fact, could be Whitman's for the asking since no other top-tier candidate may want it. Few are willing to compete with Corzine's immense fortune; he outspent Republican Robert Franks in the 2000 campaign by roughly 10-1.
The next opening would come in 2008, when Lautenberg's term is up.
Few seriously consider the possibility that Whitman will run for governor in 2005 against Gov. McGreevey, who is embroiled in several controversies that threaten his reelection.
For one thing, she would face a serious challenge from one or more Republicans preparing to seek the nomination. And a return to the Statehouse would probably hold little interest to Whitman, who is not inclined to look back.
What's more, Whitman's record in Trenton on state spending and deficits has taken a pounding since she left office, and her low popularity ratings in polls rival those of former Gov. Jim Florio at his political low-water mark.
Indeed, an enduring paradox of Whitman's career is that her popularity at home has never kept up with the national appeal she enjoys among many Republicans.
Still, Whitman did veto a partial-birth abortion bill in 1997 and her appointments to the New Jersey Supreme Court cost Douglas Forrester from becoming senator last year along with the court's decision on legislative redistricting this year that hurt Republicans.
Nothing major. Back in 2000, the media released a picture of her frisking a African-American suspect. She was allowed to do so by the police. Governor DiFransesco, who replaced Whitman when she stepped down to join the Bush adminstration, had ethical problems, which forced him to abandon the Republican primary for governor in 2001.
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