Posted on 05/21/2003 10:34:00 AM PDT by prairiebreeze
This year, Canada can't win for losing. Another exotic disease strikes our country, this time imperilling not our health but our economy. And once again, Ottawa is in the unenviable position of having to balance between the twin dangers of underreaction and panic.
Jean Chrétien faces an exquisitely difficult balancing act in the days and weeks ahead, one he has shown himself ill-equipped to handle in the past. But handle it he must. Because the consequences of inaction or misdirection are vast.
There is no underestimating the short-term impact of the discovery that mad-cow disease was diagnosed in an Alberta cow. Everyone knows the devastating effects of the disease, which can be transmitted to humans with fatal consequences, on the European beef industry.
At the moment, the value of Canada's beef stock is essentially nil. Subtracting imports, 54 per cent of our production (cattle and beef) has been exported, with just over 72 per cent of that going to the United States. For now, that market has vanished.
But the news is not all bad. Unlike severe acute respiratory syndrome, a new disease that was much feared but little understood, mad-cow disease has been extensively studied. Unlike West Nile virus, creeping inexorably across the country, this incident can and, God willing, will be contained.
But even a short-term crisis will have a serious impact. Beef is like hard liquor, less fashionable in recent years as people move to chicken breasts and white wine. This latest scare won't help.
And the stigma of being added to the lists of countries where mad-cow disease has struck will not be easily erased. Even a brief export ban will put farmers out of business, change restaurant menus and damage the fast-food industry.
How the federal government handles the challenge is crucial. During the recent SARS scare, Ottawa came under intense criticism (although not all of it was justified) for failing to move quickly enough to contain the outbreak, especially through screening at airports. And the fact that Mr. Chrétien spent the early days of the crisis golfing in the Caribbean did little to bolster confidence.
Now, Ottawa's ability and willingness to respond is once again being tested, except the epicentre of the crisis is not Liberal-friendly Toronto, but the West.
If there is an archetypal angry, alienated Westerner, it must surely be an Alberta beef farmer.
The difficult thing will be not to overreact or underreact. Public fear, exacerbated by the inevitable media frenzy, will tempt both federal and provincial governments to take extreme measures, which themselves could stoke fear. On the other hand, the slightest hint that our governments are devoting less than 100 per cent of their attention to the issue will prompt a crisis of confidence, abroad as well as at home.
Much of it, of course, will turn out to be luck. Was this animal imported? Was it fed from some unique source that brought it into contact with the disease, a source to which other animals would not likely have been exposed? If more than one animal is involved, can the outbreak be contained by culling the necessary herds?
Down the road will come questions of compensation for farmers already hit by last year's drought and now sitting on potentially worthless stocks.
And there will be the necessary advertising campaigns to restore confidence.
(The Americans will surely be mystified by all the Canadian ads they are about to be hit with: "Toronto is safe!" "Canadian beef is safe!" "And our mosquitoes won't kill you!")
In the nearer term, much will depend on communication and optics: on regular and comprehensive news briefings with details of the investigation fully disclosed. And Mr. Chrétien is going to have to consider how much of the two-week European tour he is scheduled to embark on next Tuesday should be cancelled.
Of course, none of this should be political at all. But we are political animals, and nothing this big can go for long without being interpreted politically. Mr. Chrétien certainly knows that he must handle this crisis well, or face even more pressure to step down sooner rather than later.
Prairie
or Ashley Banfield....
Prairie
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