SARS Epidemic Is Over in Most of World

Washington Post ^ | Sunday, May 18, 2003 | Rob Stein

[InShanghai]

By Rob Stein
Washington Post Staff Writers
Sunday, May 18, 2003; Page A12

The SARS epidemic appears to be coming to an end everywhere there has been an outbreak except China and Taiwan, scientists concluded at the close of an international assessment yesterday.

Aggressive measures to identify and isolate victims early have brought outbreaks under control in Hanoi, Toronto, Singapore and Hong Kong, experts announced at the end of a 11/2-day World Health Organization meeting.

WHO brought together more than 40 leading epidemiologists from 16 countries to assess the state of the epidemic and what is known about the new lung disease, which has struck at least 7,761 people and killed at least 623 in 28 nations.

"I think the message coming out of this meeting is certainly one of great hope, it's one of celebration that the measures are working, but also a call to action because we've got a lot more to do yet before we end this problem," said Michael J. Ryan, coordinator of WHO's Global Alert and Response program at a briefing at the conclusion of the meeting.

The researchers agreed that most of WHO's previous conclusions about severe acute respiratory syndrome held true, including the fact that it has a 10-day incubation period and an overall mortality rate of 14 percent to 15 percent.

Outbreaks of the disease have followed a strikingly similar pattern around the world, noted Margaret Chan, director of Hong Kong's health department.

The primary mode of transmission is through droplets expelled when victims cough or sneeze, although the disease may spread in some instances through feces, the scientists said.

The chain of transmission can be broken by identifying patients quickly, isolating them and tracking down all their close contacts to make sure none infects anyone else, the experts said.

Although the epidemic is much larger in China than elsewhere, the same approach should be able to work there as well, and Chinese authorities appear to be rapidly improving their implementation of those measures, the scientists said.

"The experience across the range of countries involved has been that the control measures that we have designed have managed to break the cycle of transmission through the simple implementation of case finding, contact tracing and isolation practices in hospitals," Ryan said. "This has been the key factor, and we've seen the number of secondary cases per case dropping systematically in all the countries to a point now where we believe, in the majority of cases, we are now seeing the epidemics coming to an end."

[InShanghai]

Researchers have not identified any animals that can be infected with the virus. If none exist, then there would be nowhere for the virus to hide if it were eliminated from humans.

I Hope this is truly the beginning of the end for SARS...

[InShanghai]

Ping.

[alloysteel]

Duck and cover. This is more likely a supreme effort at disinformation, and a clandestine way of allowing people to drop their guard, in preparation for an even more deadly assault by mutated forms of a similar infection.

Xenophobia may not always be the right thing. There are times when this same xenophobia is the only sane response.

[Judith Anne]

Thanks for posting. This epidemic is most certainly not over.

[EternalHope]

I think we'll be getting a lot of headlines like this one. We've known SARS was beaten or in retreat in most of the world for quite a while.

We also know that SARS is NOT beaten or in retreat in Taiwan and China. If we do not eliminate it in China, it will inevitably spread.

If you read the article carefully, you will see that no one actually said China was beating SARS. What they said was that China COULD beat SARS if they did what everyone else is doing. So far, they most certainly are not.

[Dog Gone]

This is certainly reassuring. The epidemic is over except in an area where 25% of the planet's population lives, and there it is out of control.

I feel so much better.

[dc-zoo]

Looks like the WHO is giving themselves credit for stopping sars in most of the world (patting themselves on the back). They should have waited until this fall before making such a statement giving people what may be a false sense of security.

[Judith Anne]

Your posts are exactly what I'm thinking.

[CathyRyan]

There is an old Elizabethan tale that goes....

There once was a thief that got caught and was taken before the king. The king ordered the man to be executed. The thief spoke up and said your majesty I can teach your favorite horse to talk. The king intrigued said OK I will give you one year to teach my horse to talk and then let the thief go. The thief's friend said are you crazy, you can't teach a horse to talk. And the thief replied of course not. But within a year's time, I might die, the king might die, the horse might die, or well the horse might talk.