This Economy's Worst Sin Is That It's So Dull (Wonderland)

The Wall Street Journal ^ | Friday, May 16, 2003 | DANIEL HENNINGER

[WaveThatFlag]

The biggest problem with the U.S. economy right now is that it is so utterly boring.

Animal spirits? Yeah, if the animal is a tree sloth. Nothing out there moves. The stock market is said to be in its "trading range." So are the New York Mets. You begin to feel like the fat, sweaty guy that Orson Welles played in some desolate border town, suit soaked through, mopping off the intense heat in a day going nowhere. We gotta get out of this place.

[sarasota]

Here's the deal: there are highs; there are lows; there are periods of stagnation and periods of growth. The only thing you can change is your attitude.

[HatSteel]

These guys don't like this market because it's a real market -- the kind that makes you have to do your homework to make money. Before, in the Clinton Bubble era, with everything inflated 100 to 1000 times reality, they could just close their eyes, drop their finger, pick out a company and it would increase. Falsely increase, but nonetheless increase.

Bubble era brokers were lazy and spoiled and willing to believe they were investment geniuses. But,real markets call for real work. And real markets are the norm. And real geniuses get id'd by real results.

[kinghorse]

This was all predicted by a future thinker 3 or 4 years ago. The genome boom had run it's course along with the PC and networking boom. No innovation, no growth. Deflation.

If innovation is not possible then wait for a war. Send some of the work force overseas to stay busy under the aegis of the public economy. Break stuff. Rebuild it. That's the only other way out of a deflationary death spiral.

[Teacher317]

I'm talking about the pure, simple, social fun of a real economy -- teams of people dreaming up ways to do things that have never been done before.

That elusive mistress Innovation does seem to have taken a longer vacation than usual... but then again, a war, numerous terrorsist attacks (including those that hit home), a significant number of former allies turning their backs, and the ever-higher plateau of entertainment-value that it takes to grab our excitable parts... all these factors would tend to scare her away for a while.

Or then again, maybe the truly inventive minds in America are Shrugging.

Or then again, maybe we don't educate young minds for that anymore, and shouldn't be surprised when we have fewer innovative minds left.

[sarasota]

Interesting. I've always heard that wars benefit the economy but I've never understood the mechanics. Thanks.

[the gillman@blacklagoon.com]

A factor that some might consider is the number of people (former achievers) who've had their businesses or careers legislated out of existence for the second or third time.

It will take some time before they commit to something new, if they can think of something new.

[Jackie]

Re your post #3.

Very well stated!

[HatSteel]

Thank you. The spoiled, Clinton Bubble brokers get under my skin. They still haven't admitted the truth to themselves.

It's going to be the same with mortgage brokers when interest rates go back up. Many are congratulating themselves on their great "expertise" at mortgage sales and on their commission checks. Obviously, the lowest mortgage rates in recent history are driving that market.

When those disappear we'll see who the real salesmen are.

[Lou L]

My diversified portfolio has already earned 7-9% YTD. It's not a glamorous return, but for the first time in a while, it appears to be a more honest one in terms of market alignment. If we continue on a slow and steady pace throughout the rest of the year, I'll be happy with it.

[Lou L]

...teams of people dreaming up ways to do things that have never been done before.

Oh please. It's clear to see that the only thing many of those dot-com "teams" thought of were ways to hyphenate with a small "i" or "e" next to some alleged business, build a slick website, hype their company through a "hot" -sounding IPO, and then cash in their shares. You can count the profitable (and remaining) ones on two hands.

[Jackie]

I hope you become a prolific poster here!

[RipSawyer]

"Or then again, maybe we don't educate young minds for that anymore, and shouldn't be surprised when we have fewer innovative minds left."

I have a certain amount of contact with young people in their early twenties and I have begun to wonder what ever happened to youthful exuberance. I see little or no evidence that it exists in the new millenium.

[HatSteel]

That is kind of you. Thank you.

[Grampa Dave]

When I read articles like this one, I wish that we had some truth in labeling so called business/economic writers.

I would like to know their politics. Are they conservatives, tax and spend rats or independent gold bugs?

This un exciting market has been very good to all of our mutual funds which invest in companies, starting in late March/early April.

If the double taxing of dividends stays in place, it will even be better.

I miss the 90's like a person who got a cure from a deadly disease.

This writer is probably one of Al Hunt's Blair Baby Hires.

[CyberSpartacus]

I'm one of them. Why bust my ass building another company when the Hitlerys sactomoniously proclaim "Our profits your losses."

[q_an_a]

Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton everyone gets to be a millionaire and people say repubicans are obsessed with money.

[WaveThatFlag]

This writer is probably one of Al Hunt's Blair Baby Hires.

Dan Henninger is the deputy editor of the Wall Street Journal. He is very partiotic, and very conservative. The point of the column is not so much a desire for a return ti "irrational exuberance" as it is a lament that the psychological withdrawl has been so severe.

[Moonman62]

When I read articles like this one, I wish that we had some truth in labeling so called business/economic writers.

Since he didn't put any blame on the president whatsoever, I'd say he's a 100% butt kissing Republican.