Posted on 05/14/2003 9:56:33 PM PDT by NormsRevenge
On June 24, 2002 President George Bush presented his vision of the Middle East in which he saw two states, Israel and Palestine, and emphasized how necessary it is for the new state to be viable.
Since then, in almost every speech about the region, Bush has emphasized this need for viability. After all, a state that from the outset lacks the conditions for viability will only bring trouble on itself and its neighbors. Earlier this week Secretary of State Colin Powell visited Israel and in a surprising and original statement, said settlements detract from the viability of this future state.
Let us assume that for the sake of realizing Bush's vision Israel will uproot the settlements and withdraw to the June 4, 1967 lines. The area of the Palestinian state would then be some 5,500 square kilometers - 5,210 sq.km. in Judea and Samaria and 380 in the Gaza Strip. In that small area there are about 3.2 million people. That's just over 580 people per sq.km.
It is impossible to live with such overcrowding, unless the infrastructure - especially in comparison to Gaza and Hebron - are highly developed, the education and health services are advanced, and the population has a particularly high income and can rely on well developed state and municipal governments. In short, it has to be Hong Kong or Singapore.
In the Gaza Strip, for example, there are now 1.25 million people living in 376 sq.km. or 3,300 per sq.km. The natural increase in Gaza, according to statistics compiled by the World Bank, is the highest in the world - about 7 children per family. The population of the strip, according to those same statistics, will double in another 17 years. This means that in 2020 this piece of land, which is smaller than some ranches in Texas, Wyoming or North Dakota, will be home to 2.5 million people, or 6,600 persons per sq.km.
Who will be able to provide housing, health, education or sewage - never mind jobs - for these overcrowded, unemployed, hungry and frustrated millions? Can Gaza, Mr. President, be part of a "viable" state?
In 2020 Judea and Samaria will have more than 3 million inhabitants, or 600 per square kilometer - not including those who will arrive under the right of return. And if one adds other factors to this impossible crowding, such as a severe shortage of water, collapsed sewage systems - despite the generous grants from the European Union (EU) - problematic health services and the inability to control a population living in abject poverty, it is doubtful whether Bush's lofty vision will be realized even by the end of days.
Many have said that demography is not an exact science. Perhaps this applies to a prediction extending 60 to 70 years. But in another 17 years, the period within which the population of Gaza will double, only minor changes can occur, if any. When close to 75 percent of Gaza's population and about 70 percent of the population of Judea and Samaria are under the age of 20, and they are the ones who will be giving birth to the next generation, no one has to be a demographer to predict the future.
A few years ago, during a meeting between settlers and members of the Palestinian Authority, the Palestinians were asked: Egypt covers over a million sq.km. and has a population density of less than 70 persons per sq.km. Why don't you demand - after recruiting the assistance of the Americans, the Europeans and the Arab states - that Egypt give you, for example, 20,000 sq.km. (out of about 90,000 sq.km. in the Sinai, which is almost totally unpopulated?
Jordan is 20 times the size of the area in which you are demanding to set up a state. Are the Jordanians under no obligation to donate some living space to your cause? After all, you used to be part of Jordan.
One of the Palestinian delegates, who is now a senior member of Abu Mazen's government, said Egypt would never give up any of Sinai, "even if we were suffocating." You may also forget the "Jordan is Palestine" line.
If that's so, concluded one of the Israelis, we are left with 20,500 square kilometers within the Green Line and a large Arab minority that wants autonomy. After you get the territories, you will come to us, because you won't be able to live there, and will demand more land from us. The Palestinians denied this.
There is no doubt that the Palestinians, and not just so that their state will be viable, will not and cannot make do with a tiny area of 5,500 square kilometers. If they are not given additional land, such as in Sinai or on the other side of the Jordan river, they will target their frustration on Israel. Even after a full withdrawal from Judea, Samaria and Gaza, it will continue to control 80 percent of the land the Palestinians view as their homeland. Then, with the status of a state in the full sense of international law, they will renew their bloody war. That is the outcome we may expect from the American president's vision.
The continued progression of matters in their current direction will therefore turn that vision, even if Israel withdraws to the 1967 lines, into a delusion. If, however, Bush delegates some of the responsibility for the viability, particularly with respect to the land problem, to both Jordan and Egypt, there is a chance for his vision. The sooner Egypt and Jordan are made aware of this, the better.
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