Posted on 05/11/2003 7:24:49 PM PDT by Mike_Flats
NEW DELHI: Officials and ministers are putting on a brave face, but the government feels let down by US deputy secretary of state Richard Armitage's visit last week.
Last May-June, Armitage was part of a torrent of high-level visits- British foreign secretary Jack Straw, US secretary of state Colin Powell and secretary of defence Donald Rumsfeld- aimed at persuading the Vajpayee government to call off a military attack on Pakistan.
The message was similar: Musharraf had given them assurances that Pakistan would end infiltration across the Line of Control (LoC) permanently. President Bush underscored this while speaking to reporters after a cabinet meeting on May 30, 2002. Musharraf, he declared, must stop incursions across the Line of Control. "He must do so. He said he would do so. We and others are making it clear to him that he must live up to his word."
New Delhi called off the attack and redeployed its forces. But there has been no let-up in infiltration and violence, a fact that even the US acknowledges. But having succeeded in preventing Indian retribution, and getting the Indian Army back to its barracks, Armitage's message this time around was that it was not his job to give assurances. It was up to India to decide what it wanted to make of Musharraf's promises.
The Vajpayee government has no one but itself to blame for having been taken for a ride by the US. The Anglo-American officials, who came in last year, had their own military plans, but they concerned Iraq and not Pakistan. With Iraq under their belt and Indian forces back in their barracks, their focus has shifted to resolving the Israel-Palestine dispute.
There is a positive flipside to this and New Delhi can read Armitage's message another way: We are too busy elsewhere, you should not depend on us to deal with Pakistan.
Prime Minister Vajpayee is set on that course, but he has one problem. Pakistan has not abjured the military/terrorist option, and the Army is putting forward the Jamali pawn to deal with the Vajpayee diplomatic offensive.
As the Vajpayee strategy of calibrated engagement unfolds, it will find that its greatest weakness lies in the incapacity of its security forces. Unless India is able to show Pakistan that its support for terrorism will not be cost-free, there will be no movement on the negotiating table.
The problem is that despite spending Rs 70,000 crore a year on defence, Indian forces are not adequately structured to deal with this immediate military problem.
It is not a matter of political will or bravery, but of the lack of adequate instruments.
The government began a process of reforming the armed forces, but the efforts have come unstuck because of bureaucratic back-sliding and lack of adequate political leadership.
Defence minister George Fernandes and Deputy PM L K Advani have the right instincts about security, but they lack the executive capabilities to translate their words into deeds.
India needs to realize that America is primarily concerned about America's interests. If America's interests demand that they go soft on dictator Musharraf, America will do just that regardless of Musharraf's actions that continue to hurt India.
India must take care of India's interests and not look to America to stop Musharraf's nefarious activities.
It's difficult to understand why India does not take the battle right into Pakistan by extending full moral and material support to the Sindhis and the Balochis, the Mohajirs and the Balwaristanis, and perhaps the Pushtuns, to gain independence from the Punjabi-dominated military dictatorship.
The time is ripe as the Sindhis, the Balochis and the other ethnic groups seeking independence from Pakisan are getting active in the United States trying to build a constituency of support in Congress.
One of these days (God willing), I'll revisit India. It's been about thirty years.
Tell me if I'm wrong, but I take Armitage's message to be a "green light". We needed India to back off when we needed Musharraf. We no longer need him, or rather, he is not able to deliver any more than he has already delivered. Our main point of leverage with Musharraf was our ability to protect him from India; Mush can't or won't go farther than he has already gone, and we are removing the shield.
Now its just a question of how far India wants to push it, but we aren't going to go and beg them to stop. Just give us a heads up so we can go in and grab the nukes.
I suspect India also backed down because Pakistan may actually be in a stronger position vis-a-vis their ability to deliver nukes on target. India flies Russian junk. Pakistan has F-16's. Pakistan is getting help on it's missiles from China and North Korea. India is going it alone on the missile development front (and having difficulties it seems).
India's edge on the ground and at sea may be outmatched on the nuke front.
You're one of the few people to say that the SU 30MKI, equipped with Israeli,Indian,French / avionics,radar,weapon systems, is junk. Esp when it is ranged against the "export model" F16-A's flown by the Pakistanis. IMO, even the Indian MiG-29's or Mirage 2000's (yes, its French, I know) can out-perform the Pakistani F16-A's , as they have western radar and weapons systems.
I would not be so sure about the Mig29. It may have better maneuverability but it has not the swiftness of a central low moment of inertia single engine configuration of the F16. The single engine Mirage may be an exact match to the F16 in many ways, although it is much more expensive and not exactly more maneuverable or faster either, although that inverted delta does wonders. So in terms of $$s per, the F16 is better than its equivalent Mirage.
There is a sin factor with Pakistani Islamic bomb and India conversely overreacting given the erratic behavior of its neighbors.
Nuke war is way overdue in this world.
Also, pilot training is critical. It is very difficult for us in India to get news about our forces, esp about the 1965 and '71 wars, that is not put out by the govt. What I've heard is that in each of the two wars, Pakistan lost aircraft to vastly inferior Indian planes - in 1965 an IAF Ouragan shot down a PAF Sabre and in 1971, of couse, IAF Ajeets ( Gnats) shot down a few PAF F-104's.
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