I'm sure Rove has stated basically, "You won the war in Iraq, you fight for lower taxes (not very successfully), and you wear a cowboy hat. The right wing will be pissed at you, but they'll still vote for you anyway. Where else are they gonna go?" Some will vote for a 3rd Party loser, but many will just chose not to vote - for President, at least - at all.
I see Mulder already answered you (in post #14).