Posted on 05/05/2003 12:29:07 PM PDT by Enemy Of The State
In sharp contrast with his past practices, Dr. Kim states that he is speaking for North Korea: he is relaying North Korea's official message to the Bush administration. During the last meeting of North Korean and American officials in Beijing, the North Korea's chief delegate told his American counterpart that North Korea had at least one nuke. The US CIA estimates that North 'may have one or two crude nuclear devices.'
Dr. Kim states that the nukes were built in the 1980's before North Korea signed the Agreed Framework in 1994. It is likely that the US CIA knew about North Korea's nuclear capability but decided to cover it up with its persistent "North Korea may have 1-2 crude devices." It should be recalled that the US CIA failed to predict the Korean War of 1950 and also the intervention of Chinese forces. The failure was due to not any lack of intelligence but incorrect analysis of the mountain of intelligence.
Dr. Kim stated that North Korea's technical capacity of delivering nuclear weapons on missiles was proven by Pakistan's nuclear tests and missile test-fires. Pakistan claims that it has developed its nukes and missiles on its own. The bottom-line is that neither North nor Pakistan has violated any international agreements.
US Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld believes North Korea does not have the capability to strike American cities and North Korea is bluffing. Dr. Kim believes that North Korea will demonstrate its capacity to strike America: it may conduct a series of nuclear explosions and test-fire an ICBM over the US homeland. The US CIA claims that North Korea's ICBM, Taepodong II, failed in its maiden test and that North Korea's ICBM test site was destroyed in a failed engine test. Recently, the warhead of North Korea's 'failed' ICBM was discovered in Alaska.
The US hawks led by Rumsfeld believe that Kim Jong Il and Saddam Hussein are cut from the same cloth and that Kim will go the way of Saddam. It should be noted that when the chips were down, Saddam's 'supporters' deserted his sinking ship and few Iraqis opted to die for him. The fact of the matter is that the great majority of Saddam's supporters were opportunists and sycophants out to make a fast buck using Saddam's name. Rumsfeld is convinced that few of Kim's supporters will die for him and that shake Kim's regime a little and he will be gone.
Dr. Kim asserts that Kim Jong Il is no Saddam and that North Korea's military and people will fight to the end and die for Kim; and that unlike Iraq, North Korea does have the military capability and the will to inflict fatal blows not only to the US bases in Japan, Okinawa, and Guam, but also the US homeland. According to Dr. Kim, North Korea will demonstrate its military capability to hit the US homeland in the very near future.
They arranged funding of two reactors in exchange for a halt to plutonium extraction, which had been going on before Clinton took office. During the 1980's NK built their plutonium extraction capabilities, and refused IAEA inspections despite signing on to the NPT. The U.S. did nothing, though in the early 1990's Bush Sr. began negotiations that led to the 1994 framework.
On the LEFT coast ? Is there any other kind ?
Paul, in the abstract i quite agree with you. The situation that you are speaking of is quite a difference in degree from such units as an Abrams, Bradley or any Fighter Jet.
If an Abrams gets "killed", at the most one tank crew dies. (btw, we lost three Abrams tanks in Iraq this time, no deaths thank God!), if an F-16C goes down, one man is lost. We will make modification as needed, and the discovered problems will be eliminated.
The Theatre Missle Defense system is currently undergoing testing, as your graphic stated. If that system fails to intercept one time an entire city is incinerated, or a large portion therof, not to mention colateral deaths due to shock wave and fallout.
Due to the nature of an ICBM, you only get one shot at it. They travel at Mach 13, faster than any SAM can move. In point of fact, the SAM can explode right beside the ICBM, and the fragments of the blast cannot catch up with the missle. The only viable options are to place the debris "cone" of the exploded SAM in the path of the ICBM at a certain time, or achieve a "skin-to-skin" kill. There are a great many variables involved under ideal conditions. i think that we both know that in those circumstances, conditions will be a great deal less than ideal.
Do not think that i am going "gloom and doom" on you. There is always an alternative. The nice thing about ICBM's is that the people who develop them are not stupid! The warheads do not arm until they are over target. The reason for this is simple, no one wants to incinerate their own country, and if the missle goes bad that would be the result. The DPRK has done enough testing that we can locate the missles and destroy them before they ever launch.
A better solution would be to take out the command and control ability. The DPRK communications systems are primitive. A high altitude nuclear blast kills it with EMP, and doesn't destroy anything else. Cruise missle strikes on key facilities disrupts them sufficiently that they cannot control their military. The order of battle for the DPRK allows for no initative in subordinate commanders, their military is impotent at that point.
(1) We do not (now) have the capacity to shoot down ICBMs. You may thank Mr. Clinton for that.
(2) It is far more likely--IF he has nukes--that they will be delivered by freighter, concealed in a container.
(3) Some may already be in place.
--Boris
What most people are responding to on this issue are the ravings of Pyongyang Pete ( Dr. Kim Myong Chul from Japan )
With Seoul being only 40 miles from the DMZ you take out quite a bit more.
First off, i doubt that their missles are deployed near the DMZ, but you still bring up a valid point.
The North Korean communications system is primitive, they throw nothing away. They still have T-34 tanks! The South Korean commo systems are modern and probably shielded against EMP. At any rate their military net is, and that is what is important. The entire DPRK would be taken down, except for old vacuum tube units, which are immune to EMP, but must communicate in the open.
With their command and control crippled, the DPRK isn't going to be in a position to fight anyone, or to launch anything, though i still wouldn't want to be the ground commander with orders to invade the DPRK, that could be a little intense.
I doubt if all the civilian stuff is.
i have never served in Korea. i do know something about their nation. If the DPRK comes south this time, they are going to have a very difficult time of it. If "the balloon goes up", i don't think that they will be bitching too much about their civillian commo systems. They will be too busy welcoming US reinforcements, Japaneese reinforcements, and Austrailian reinforcements, preparing to "kick ass and take names".
i honestly think that they would rather have their commo disrupted than have Seoul disrupted by a nuke, or a bunch of chemical warheads.
A properly layered Reagan SDI defense would get many shots at the danged thing. From Boost-Phase, to Mid-course to Tertiary Phase. Boost phase is the obviously best place to catch these things while they are still blazing away and EXTREMELY vulnerable. Move the ships in close, and you can catch these suckers in boost phase. Perhaps with an assist from the Airborne Laser 747s we are fielding. And we are already well along at midcourse intercept with the Standard Mark 3, the Aegis has already demonstrated 6-for-6 reliability. Now of course, if the stuff is launched from Russia, or deep inside China....Aegis would only get a crack at the Midcourse portion of the trajectory. Hence a need to widen the SDI interceptor capability to include Brilliant Pebbles and have an orbital component. Supplemental space-based lasers would not hurt either.
Going after a C3-I pre-empt such as you describe would be necessarily only with the acquiescence of China and Russia. Without those, I don't think you will see an American President gamble on this.
WOULDA, SHOULDA, COULDA, Fact is, we don't have it, and this is a serious problem. The system described should have been built and deployed in the 80's, agreed. i would get down on my knees and pray that future generations would laugh at our foolishness for deploying such a system for the simple reason that one has to be sucking down breathable air to laugh.
The alternative does not bear contemplation. Right now we face the alternative, because that system does not exist.
The original "brilliant Pebbles/High Frontier" system was designed with the idea of a massive launch ala the Soviet Union, PRC in mind. It was not neccessary for it to be perfect, only to allow our nation to survive. With rogue states such as the DPRK, Pakistan, Iran, etc., we need a system that is perfect, because our concern is not retaliation -we can do that at our leisure-, rather protecting the American People. i support deployment of a layered system. After all, the defense of our people is arguably the only Constitutional expendature that our Government makes.
What i have been trying to do is to bring this thread back to present realities. The fact of the matter is that We do not have a proven, working system, and we have to take steps right now to defend our nation.
i am all for taking this nut bar and his megadeath toys out. This is absolutely sufficient motivation for a just war. We've had reasons to take this nut bar and demonic father out for decades, at least since the mid 70's. George XLIII finished the work of his father. Perhaps somebody should finish Ike's work.
Have you noticed that the developement is along the Armor routs in the Uijiimbu (i have no prayer of spelling that location properly, assistance would be appreciated!)corridor? Whe Col. Hackworth went to visit in 94 (during the time that Kim Il Song died), the intelligence officials of the ROK assured him that these buildings were delibertly placed in order for them to be destroyed, and the rubble to stop DPRK armoured collums from proceeding to Seoul. Just visualise all of that exposed, bunched DPRK armour, and ALL those ROK A-10 Warthogs...pretty picture eh?
Although the North has no love for the Japanese or the US, I think their desire to re-unite with ( take-over ) the South would keep them from using any nukes or chemicals there.
i know that there is a great emnity between the Japanese and the Koreans of both north and south from WWII, and before. Know that the Japanese are very nervous about the Nut Bar in the North, nervous enough to have their "Self-Defense" forces on alert. i don't think the ROK will b!tc# too much about the help if the balloon goes up, and the Japs could probably put an entire corps there over night.
i wouldn't be too certain about Chemical weapons though, Kim Jong Il has quite a few people to feed, and he wants that technology intact. Chemical weapons don't kill technology, just living stuff.
We just fought an unneccessary war in Iraq (Saddam could have waited), and now our army is out of position to deal with this nut bar, (sigh). Sometimes i despare of political control of the military, but fear the alternative. We should be hitting this guy Hard, Fast, and Repeatedly, until we take care of the problem. Unfortunately, this isn't going to be a low casualty cakewalk.
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