[AuH2ORepublican]

Actually, Simon only lost by like 5%.

I think Bush will carry CA in 2004 because (i) he'll increase his support among Hispanics to over 40% and (ii) because of national security and terrorism concerns, the GOP in general and Bush in particular will carry suburban areas that had swung sharply to the RATs (due to abortion and gun control) after the Cold War ended and social issues came into the forefront.

The only states Bush won't carry are Massachusetts, Rhode Island, DC, Vermont (maybe), Hawaii (maybe) and New York (maybe).

[republicanwizard]

I agree. I think Bush will win everything, the two toss-ups being MA and RI.