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CENTRAL TEXAS HOUSING SUPPLY SETS RECORD
The Austin American-Statesman ^ | 29 April 2003 | Doug Wong

Posted on 04/29/2003 10:39:13 AM PDT by MeneMeneTekelUpharsin

Buyers might find bargains among the more than 9,000 homes for sale in Central Texas,

A record number of houses were on the market in Central Texas in March as sellers trying to catch an ebbing home market added nearly 3,400 houses to a growing inventory. A total of 9,219 houses were for sale, up 34 percent from a year ago. "I think we are beginning to see the effects of the cooling of the booming housing market we have seen over the past few years," said Jack Harris, a research economist at the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University. "That inventory buildup is a significant thing. It's mainly significant for prices."

The swelling inventory is due to several factors. In a slowing market, homes are taking longer to sell: 71 days on average, compared with 60 a year ago. Layoffs have forced some people to sell their houses. Low interest rates have allowed others to trade up to bigger houses. Harris expects home sales statewide to decrease 5 percent to 10 percent this year, with the Austin market being at the higher end of that estimate. That could mean some bargains for buyers. For sellers, the trend will have an obvious effect: "It may not sell as fast as you thought and not at the price that you want," he said.

Amye Martin and her husband, who are moving to Houston, put their Southwest Austin house on the market three weeks ago. There are five houses for sale within a few blocks. Martin said she realizes that there is more competition than when they bought the house three years ago, at the peak of the tech boom. "Things have changed dramatically," she said. "In 2000, when we bought the house, three of the houses we looked at already had contracts on them by the time we got back to the Realtor's office." Just the same, she said, she's not worried. "We've had a lot of people coming in with a lot more (houses) to look at," she said.

At the current sales rate, there is a nearly seven-month supply of houses for sale, compared with as little as two months in 2000. "We have gone from a market with short supply to one with ample supply," Harris said. He said the high inventory should help keep prices in check. For the past three years, the housing market has been defying gravity, thanks largely to record low interest rates that have lured first-time buyers and allowed others to move into bigger, better houses. Though sales have slowed, the median price remained high. It hit a peak of $162,700 in June.

In March, the median price was $157,500, down just $500 from March 2002. According to the Austin Board of Realtors, 1,383 houses were sold in March, up 25 percent from February but down 2.9 percent from March 2002. For the first three months of this year, sales were down 8.3 percent compared with the same time in 2002. Activity dropped over the winter as uncertainty over the economy and the looming war with Iraq tempered buyers' enthusiasm. Now with the war's conclusion and signs that the economy will avoid another recession, home buyers might be coming out of their winter hibernation. But Harris said that without a new influx of buyers, the market might have played out. "I would be almost assured to say April will be better than March, but it doesn't look like it will be better than last April," he said.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: centraltexas; falling; housing; prices
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As I have previously told all of you (to no avail), the housing market is very close to having a down season. Too many houses for sale and no buyers. There are NOT going to be a lot of buyers. However, some on here like to flame me for my comments which I do not appreciate and have not forgotten.
1 posted on 04/29/2003 10:39:14 AM PDT by MeneMeneTekelUpharsin
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To: MeneMeneTekelUpharsin
Austin had this problem back in 1986 - part of the cycle of overbuilding in response to a housing boom.
2 posted on 04/29/2003 10:40:20 AM PDT by dirtboy (Tagline under construction, fines doubled for speeding)
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To: dirtboy
We were having a bit of an oil bust at the time as well. Hit Houston even harder than Austin and ruined a lot of neighborhoods that had been nice until the riff-raff moved in.
3 posted on 04/29/2003 10:42:06 AM PDT by johnb838 (Understand the root causes of American Anger)
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To: johnb838
We were having a bit of an oil bust at the time as well. Hit Houston even harder than Austin

All the development money in Texas converged on Austin after the oil bust hit the rest of the state. Everyone thought Austin was immune with its high-tech employment until they all found out that high tech was just as stinkin' cyclical as oil. I had the fun to be working for the Austin builder's association in 1985 and 1986 and got to witness the development crash from inside the industry...

4 posted on 04/29/2003 10:44:16 AM PDT by dirtboy (Tagline under construction, fines doubled for speeding)
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To: dirtboy
"Austin had this problem back in 1986 - part of the cycle of overbuilding in response to a housing boom."

No shirt, Sherlock. I lived there then, and I bought a house that had originally been built on spec. The builder put all kinds of stuff into it - central vac, 2 huge decks, top-line doors, expensive woodwork, 12-zone sprinkler system (yard), pretty much the works. And it sat on the market for 12 months. When we finally bought it, the price had slipped to 30,000 LESS than it cost the developer to build it. Lotsa pipple got burned back then.

Michael

5 posted on 04/29/2003 10:45:56 AM PDT by Wright is right! (Have a profitable day!)
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To: Wright is right!
Who was the builder? I worked for the Builders Association at the time and knew a lot of 'em personally.
6 posted on 04/29/2003 10:47:21 AM PDT by dirtboy (PaleoNeoCon - a neocon who was neocon before neocon was cool...)
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To: dirtboy
Austin is not the only place having this problem. The real estate agents are desperately trying to cover up what is happening. In Argentina, real estate agents are losing their jobs. You see, a fellow I know bought a house down there for $40,000. Then, it was worth $150,000 just 2-3 years ago. Now, he can't sell it at ALL. However, none of this will EVER happen here. No, not here. When we as a nation move toward an economy built on air instead of products we PRODUCE, we can NOT have an economy.

I am about fed up with arguing with adults who are supposed to know better, teenagers who think they know it all, and Freepers who back both of them up. Go ahead...flame me. One of these days I am going to answer with incredible details. So, carry on.

7 posted on 04/29/2003 10:47:30 AM PDT by MeneMeneTekelUpharsin
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To: MeneMeneTekelUpharsin
That's part of the problem - a house appreciates in value, but it's still the exact same house it was before. The only way to cash in on that equity is to sell it and move somewhere housing is cheaper, or to take out a home equity loan on the increased equity - but then you've increased your debt load and now have a secured loan hanging over your head. I think it's gonna take a couple more years for the bubbles to work their way out of the economic system and quit causing a monetary case of the bends...
8 posted on 04/29/2003 10:52:15 AM PDT by dirtboy (PaleoNeoCon - a neocon who was neocon before neocon was cool...)
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To: MeneMeneTekelUpharsin
Too many Carnacs.
A lot of people have been predicting the bust of the housing market for a long time. It seems if someone says, over a long period of time, that there will be a down season on anything, eventually they'll be right.
9 posted on 04/29/2003 10:52:27 AM PDT by stylin19a (2 wrongs don't make a right.....but 3 rights make a left)
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To: Beelzebubba
Ping
10 posted on 04/29/2003 11:01:47 AM PDT by Henrietta
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To: MeneMeneTekelUpharsin
It's hard to awake people to the truth; they'll scratch and fight to keep their own reality. Expect flames.
11 posted on 04/29/2003 11:05:56 AM PDT by disclaimer
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To: dirtboy
"Who was the builder? I worked for the Builders Association at the time and knew a lot of 'em personally."

Darned if I can recall. He was some indie who built just a few houses in the neighborhood. The address was 6300 Amberly Place - you could probably look it up in the property records. Actually never met th' guy. But I do know that he had to bring a really big check to closing - just to get out of it.

For those of you in other states - frequently a real estate closing in TX will occur without both parties ever meeting. First, the seller closes, then the buyer ambles in and does HIS thing. Of the four houses I bought over the years in TX, I never met any of the sellers personally.

Michael

12 posted on 04/29/2003 11:38:58 AM PDT by Wright is right! (Have a profitable day!)
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To: Wright is right!
He was some indie who built just a few houses in the neighborhood.

Those are the guys who got skinned in the down market.

13 posted on 04/29/2003 11:41:05 AM PDT by dirtboy (PaleoNeoCon - a neocon who was neocon before neocon was cool...)
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To: stylin19a
Thanks for your documentable reply. I don't predict things over a long period of time. You'll find that to be true if you'll go back and research my posts. However, tell you what, you buy a house within the next three months and then tell me a year from now if you got a good deal. Put your money where your mouth is. That's what I do.
14 posted on 04/29/2003 2:01:48 PM PDT by MeneMeneTekelUpharsin
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To: MeneMeneTekelUpharsin
Documented ? Like you using an article about a slowing Central Texas housing market, to document your previous "warning"?( whenever that was )

I'll be glad to document it. How far back do you want the stories from the links to go?

How about a 1999 Morgan-Stanley flier about being prepared for a housing bust "right around the corner"?

Looks like, at least today, you are now on record as saying the bust will happen within the next year ? Talk about going out on a limb, considering the longer the boom, the sooner the bust.

I don't need a house. I will track what my house is worth today and what it is worth a year from today. If it's less, I tip my hat to you. If it's not less, I tip my hat to me.

I'll stand by my original comment. Only now, Carnac was better.
15 posted on 04/29/2003 4:24:56 PM PDT by stylin19a (2 wrongs don't make a right.....but 3 rights make a left)
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To: MeneMeneTekelUpharsin
As I have previously told all of you (to no avail), the housing market is very close to having a down season. Too many houses for sale and no buyers.

Huh? LOL! Here in California, there is a very low inventory of homes for sale, and there are 1000 people for every home....LOL! The ones that do go on the market, are gone in a week, some with multiple offers....

There are not making anymore prime realestate in Southern Cal and the prices reflects it......Supply and demand.

Good luck to you in Texas with those 9000 homes.....

16 posted on 04/29/2003 4:30:36 PM PDT by Joe Hadenuf (i)
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To: stylin19a
LOL.....
17 posted on 04/29/2003 4:33:03 PM PDT by Joe Hadenuf (i)
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To: stylin19a
Keep talking and mocking and laughing. El que rie ultimo, rie el mejor. No problem.
18 posted on 05/01/2003 3:57:31 AM PDT by MeneMeneTekelUpharsin
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To: stylin19a
I don't need a house.

Oh, forgot to mention. I don't either. Will give no details about my housing at this time. If you knew the things I've had to deal with from talking with real estate agents in two states and the stuff they've tried to pull, you would understand some of my invective. What they have done is unforgiveable. I'm out. ;-D

19 posted on 05/01/2003 4:01:48 AM PDT by MeneMeneTekelUpharsin
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To: stylin19a
I'll be glad to document it.

Thanks. Please get started. First, I'll start to document the leading causes of what is going to happen:

Click here.

Or, try this one:

Click here.

20 posted on 05/01/2003 4:16:00 AM PDT by MeneMeneTekelUpharsin
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