Posted on 04/28/2003 3:57:25 PM PDT by Ford Fairlane
OPINION -- It's November 2004. The returns are coming in. President Bush is winning and this time there will be no recount - John Kerry did not prove to be the foe his democratic party thought he would.
The returns from South Dakota also look promising John Thune has a slight lead with 97% of the precincts reporting. But in the midst of the President's gains and some setbacks this night - control for the Senate looks like it will be determined by the race in Illinois for the former seat of Senator Peter Fitzgerald.
Melodramatic? Maybe...or not.
Since Senator Fitzgerald has announced he will not run again - suddenly the dynamic of the entire Senate has been put into question. Democrats had already targeted Fitzgerald as the seat "they'd most like to gain." Given only a handful of votes that the Senator cast that the President needed, his re-election might have been a tougher task than he or the President would like to have seen.
Now the administration faces the dilemma. Who do they get behind in Illinois? It's plain to see that they want to retain the seat, so the thinking must be "whoever has the best chance at victory in November." And early on it appears as the old "network" solution was about to be rolled into play, and still yet may be.
Illinois Former Governor Jim Edgar had popular numbers when he was governor and continues to enjoy positive numbers now.
But Edgar was from another time. He was governor while George Ryan's shenanigans were going on in the Secretary of State's office. When Edgar was governor, nobody had heard of "license for bribes" or "the Willis children." The point is corruption was not THE issue of the day in the state of Illinois as it is now.
Eventually it was Edgar's health, not his job performance, that caused him to step away from politics. But that connection to the old guard in Illinois remains and in this state's awareness in the post- George Ryan era - "Edgar for Senate" might not be the knockout punch that the White House needs.
Campaigning for this seat will be exhaustive, if the candidate is serious. The winning candidate will be working 5 am to 12 midnight everyday for almost a year to get the message out.
Campaigning for this seat will be expensive. Political analysts that I've spoken with on both sides of the aisle usually put the beginning price tag at around $20 million to win it. Fitzgerald tapped into his own resources last time to over $11 million.
But besides the time and money, the Democrats have trigger they can pull -- if they so choose -- that would pose a formidable threat in the post-George Ryan, scandal-plagued era. His name is Glenn Poshard.
Poshard ran against then-Secretary of State George Ryan in 1998 and nearly beat him. Poshard is from downstate Illinois, thus making him more friendly to folks who care about the issue of guns. Poshard is unabashedly conservative on many of the social issues that grassroots Republican voters care about passionately. And since Edgar is pro-choice, pro-special rights for gays, etc., etc., what an Edgar vs. Poshard race for Senate would set-up could be disastrous for the GOP.
There would be an "establishment vs. conservative democrat" memory lingering in people's minds when nearly every voter who voted against Poshard last time wishes they hadn't.
As I have talked about this potential match-up with GOP and Democratic politicos in Illinois a Poshard vs. Edgar race would be a nightmare for the Bush administration and very well could swing the control of the Senate back to Democratic hands.
So what must the GOP do to win and retain the seat now held by Senator Fitzgerald?
Find a candidate who has no connection to the GOP scandal-plagued history. In other words, find a candidate who is about the historic principles of the party, not its recent pragmatism. They must also find someone who is as conservative as Poshard or more so.
Look, if the Democratic candidate is liberal, then a moderate GOP candidate (Edgar) might win. But if the Democratic candidate is conservative and the best that the GOP can put forward is a moderate, the base responds one of two ways. They say to themselves - "why get out and vote for the candidate I don't believe in" or even more devastating for the President, "I should have voted for Poshard last time, I won't make that same mistake twice."
Either way, the Democrats win easy in a Poshard vs. Edgar race.
However, if the GOP candidate is a fiscal as well as social conservative, this will excite the base, bring them out in big numbers, and in essence give them no reason to vote for the other side regardless of whether or not the Dems run a conservative or a liberal.
And with the hard-line Democratic liberals already declared, a candidate running against a GOP conservative only motivates GOP voters to get out and make sure that their vote counts. Either way, Republicans win big.
Now the real question is this, will the White House realize this in time? But even if they don't, will the voters of Illinois figure out that the good of the entire nation depends on us electing the right kind of candidate in the primary of 2004?
For the sake of the U.S. Senate, I hope we do . . .
If it is between these 2 I will probably vote for Poshard, unless the Senate is very close & Edgar makes a comittment to back the President & not be another Lincoln Chafee.
Poshard has already said if he were currently in the Senate he would go along with the likes of Zell Miller & support Estrada & the other judicial nominees.
So did that idiot dimowit from Louisiana. Guess what? She voted against Estrada anyway.
I think he thinks that with time, conservative democrats can bring the party back to what it used to be before the liberal (socialist) takeover
Someone like Illinois resident Donald Rumsfeld - that would be another shock & awe campaign, I don't believe the dems could beat him.
Not only shaock and awe, it would make my job as a GOP Precinct Captain fun again!
You're probably right, but if he was a senator the President would know he had one more senator he could trust
Yea, but if the republicans keep going to the center, the people (like the older members of my family) who were conservative democrats before the socialist took over the party will think twice about supporting the republicans and might, maybe retake the democratic party (given time)
In 2002 half of my extended family voted libertarian because they were disgusted with both parties
I'm genuinely confused about why there's no sadness about him leaving the seat.
He pissed off the Republican establishment in the state, especially when he pushed for the other Fitzgerald (no relation) to be US Attorney to root out the massive corruption in both parties in Illinois
He also pissed off the Daley machine by opposing money for expansion of O'hare airport, which in my opinion is one of the worst run & most dangerous airports in the country (Yes, I am a pilot)
Generally, he has no friends to support his re-election
Not only shock and awe, it would make my job as a GOP Precinct Captain fun again!
Wouldn't it be loverly.
Consider yourself lucky. My extended family votes straight RAT that I know of. (Except for me, of course, my brother, my dad, and I think one cousin. Blag's stance against guns may have cured some of them of that though, they were cussing him big time at the last get-together.)
Besides, I knew things about George Ryan that would never allow me to vote or him - he should have been in jail or maybe even the chair 25 - 30 years ago but the only witness wouldn't testify after his wife & kid were threatened by the mob (can't say that I blame him)
Poshard is at least an honest man, he will stick by what he says, won't lie to you, and will admit when he is wrong
For example, he told me that he (and a few other congressmen) made a huge mistake voting for the 94 assault weapons ban, but at the time he thought something would be passed & he was afraid it would be much worse than what we got - of course, on the bright side the deal he made is the reason there is a sunset date in the bill & we might be able to kill it next year
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