Almost everyone I know that works in Milwaukee has no intention of ever using it. Why take Metra when it's LESS CONVENIENT AND MORE COSTLY than the alternative?
Something else that needs to be considered - many of those pushing this extension are doing so claiming it will eliminate the need to expand I-94. You may also be interested to know that the Thoreau Institue has done ongoing studies on cost of mass transit vs. hwy construction, although the latest numbers I saw were a few years old, cost per mile used of highways was running at $0.001/mile, while transit was at $0.47/mile..IOW 470 times the cost to the taxpayer. We are realistically looking at providing service to a very small percentage of the commuter population, yet at a very expensive pricetag to the taxpayer. AND, they have yet to figure out how they're going to pay for this with millions of dollars in revenue sharing cuts anticipated.
I grant you that there are less in Waukegan than there are in Indian Hill, but there are still enough to make it worth Metra's time. Remember, however, that each train I see is only one of thirty that day. If the number of trains were reduced, there would not be enough room to transport all the people to Waukegan that want to go.
I don't know of the study numbers, and would be interested to see them. If they support your position, then I would agree with you. I do think 94 needs to be expanded, but I still believe there would be enough clientele to make the Milwaukee run viable. They would only need to make one or two runs a day to make it worth while, just like they do now with Kenosha.
There are a lot of people out there who don't have access to cars that need to make the trip - students who attend schools in Chicago(like myself, although I do have a car), lower class individuals who work night shifts or other jobs around Chicago, and travelers who want to get to OHare and Midway.
But, I'm just going on what I have seen on the train and what I think. I haven't seen the numbers you talk about, so perhaps that has already been taken into account. But I still like the idea of expanding mass transit - maybe just because the traffic around Chicago sucks.