April 22, 2003
TO: Governor Marc Racicot
FR: Mathew Dowd
Senior Advisor, Republican National CommitteeRE: Prediction: Some Will Say The "Sky is Falling"-- Again.
President Bush sustained a significantly elevated approval rating in the aftermath of his handling of the tragedy surrounding 9/11. Today his approval ratings are again elevated in the aftermath of Operation Iraqi Freedom.
Just as we counseled last spring in the aftermath of 9/11 that the President’s approval numbers would begin to settle out in the months leading up to election day 2002, expect the current high approval numbers to drop to a more realistic level. After 9/11 the President’s approval rating settled at a slower rate over several months with some pundits and Democrats predicting the "sky is falling" each step of the way. The current approval number should settle out beginning fairly soon and happen much faster this time but you can expect a chorus of the "sky is falling" again.
The main difference between then and now is the Democratic base is solidly against the War in Iraq and therefore the approval rise was never going to be as high as the numbers after 9/11 or as long lasting. Our two most recent Presidents to win re-election provide some historical perspective for the relationship between approval ratings and electoral success. President’s Clinton and Reagan were both re-elected by large margins with each having approval ratings in the 50s.
As we get closer to the start of the 2004 Presidential election campaign, the Democratic base vote will continue to solidify. And as President Bush is tested in media polls on head to head ballot questions, it will not be surprising to see the President behind in some polls against potential Democratic candidates and generic Democratic opposition. Every incumbent President in the last 25 years has been behind the opposition in the latter part of his first term- the sky is not falling.
* Throughout 1983, former President Reagan was behind Walter Mondale by as many as nine points, and against possible opponent John Glenn, Reagan was behind by as much as 17 points in 1983. Even at the beginning of 1984, the polls showed the race between Reagan and Mondale was a statistical dead heat. Reagan won in a landslide carrying 49 states.
* In 1987 and 1988, Vice President George Bush was behind in generic ballot polls by as many as 15 points, and against Michael Dukakis throughout 1988 Bush was behind by as many as 17 points. It was not until the Republican convention in late summer 1988 that Bush took a small solid lead. Bush went on to win by a fairly good margin in November.
* In 1995 and early 1996, former Senator Robert Dole was often ahead of Clinton in ballot polling. The Wall Street Journal showed Dole with a two point lead in 1995. And Gallup had Dole with small leads in 1995 and January 1996 Dole had a three point lead over Clinton.
In addition to approval numbers, pundits and Democrats will place an emphasis on re-elect numbers. Again it is important to have an understanding of historical precedent. Throughout 1995 President Clinton’s re-elect hardly ever got above 40%. In a Battleground poll in April, 1995, Clinton’s re-elect was 21%. The highest point Clinton’s re-elect reached in 1995 was 43% in a poll due in December 1995 for Associated Press. In spite of the low re-elect number, President Clinton ending up winning re-election comfortably.
More recently, in 2002, every major statewide candidate with a re-elect of 45% or higher --- won! The average actual result on election day 2002 showed incumbents finishing 5 to 10 points above their re-elect numbers. It is no longer accurate to suggest that a candidate is vulnerable based solely on an incumbent having a re-elect number under 50%.
As the inevitable discussion proceeds in the months ahead, this memo should provide both perspective and a reality check. President Bush’s approval numbers will again fall back to more realistic levels fairly quickly, and in head to head polls in the months ahead President Bush will at times likely be behind potential Democrats just as former Vice President Bush and Presidents Clinton and Reagan were going into the election. All were quite successful on election day.
Other articles about the memo......