Posted on 04/25/2003 10:06:12 AM PDT by Constitutionalist Conservative
HONG KONG - At the height of the Asian financial crisis in 1997, two stories surrounded the role of China. One attested to China's positive role as a stabilizer, while the other pointed to China's unsavory economic practices.
According to the latter, China had intentionally devalued its currency in 1994 to strengthen its comparative advantage versus Southeast Asia. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, sensing the risk of China being singled out for rebuke, hence losing its influence to the United States and Japan in the region, quickly rallied to the aid of Thailand with a loan in 1997. This gesture, followed by Beijing's promise not to devalue its currency again, proved effective. China's faux pas was forgiven and forgotten. In time, China was gradually accepted as a responsible regional actor and leader.
But the competition for regional leadership has once again become complicated with the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). The political capital that China has assiduously cultivated with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) since 1997 is withering away. Throughout the region, accusatory fingers are being pointed at China for not disclosing cases of SARS when they first arose last November.
Recently, ASEAN leaders met in Bangkok to confront the economic impact of SARS head-on. Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong of Singapore was particularly displeased: "SARS may not kill everyone in Singapore. But it can kill the Singapore economy. Therefore, it can kill the livelihood of Singaporeans." Goh's statement was not off the mark.
The hotel occupancy rate in Singapore and other Southeast Asian countries affected by SARS has been hovering around 20 percent. This is a huge economic and commercial disaster, given that 6-7 percent of these countries' gross domestic products rely on tourism. Indeed, three of the region's leading airlines, Cathay Pacific, Singapore Airlines and Malaysia Airlines, have had to reduce their flights by half - with no relief in sight.
But beyond the economic cost of SARS, which some analysts have estimated at US$11 billion this year, the outbreak is also having a geopolitical impact that may well be long-term in its effect.
To begin with, more East Asian countries, having observed the decrepit health system of China, are beginning to understand - finally - that China's internal developments have major consequences in the region. Beyond the issue of China's growing military might, about which some East Asian countries are no less worried, lies China's often partial, half-hearted and incomplete evolution toward becoming a responsible power. Complaints about China's massive fossil-fuel consumption, for instance, have traditionally come from Japan and South Korea, two countries that are concerned about Chinese air pollution being carried to their skies.
But since the outbreak of SARS, it is Southeast Asia's turn to understand that when Chinese sneezes its citizens too can catch a cold, if not suffer a painful death. Indeed, SARS is causing a seismic shift in political awareness on two fronts: it makes members of ASEAN less deferential to China, and it makes China less acceptable as a regional model.
The longer the SARS crisis lasts, the more China's feet of clay will become prominent. With China unable to influence the decision-making of major multilateral organizations such as World Bank, the International Monetary Fund or even the Asian Development Bank, Beijing cannot be counted upon to produce a regional rescue package.
Instead, such a role would fall on the lap of Japan, hitherto a country that has been too easily described as the "sick man of Asia" due to Tokyo's decade-long struggle with an economic recession. If anything, SARS could prove that Japan has a lot more to offer the region than China does. Moreover, the fact that SARS has affected neither Japan nor South Korea further implies that these countries are more reliable trade partners.
SARS is also affecting what is the most important single relationship in East Asia: the Sino-Taiwan tie. Because of the fear of SARS, Taiwan has become wary of mainland China. President Chen Shui-bian, together with his Democratic Progressive Party colleagues, have time and again emphasized the inappropriateness of allowing Taiwan to be reunified with the mainland along the model provided by Hong Kong.
As demonstrated by SARS, the widely acclaimed "one country, two systems" simply does not work. The health systems of Taiwan and China do not match either in terms of quality or disclosure standards. Nor is the political culture of China appropriate to Taiwan's democratic practice. Indeed, Beijing only came clean with SARS this past Sunday, some seven weeks after Hong Kong had been battered by the problem. When the official announcement was made it was revealed that Beijing alone has had 10 times as many SARS cases than originally reported.
In contemporary international relations, soft power matters. Reputation, transparency and accountability are all important measures to reflect one's standing in the global hierarchy. In its mishandling of SARS, China has squandered precious political capital that it has built up over the past five years. It will be a long time before China can restore its internal and international position, granted that SARS' coronavirus is said to be susceptible to quick mutation, and therefore resistant to an effective cure.
While East Asia is battling SARS with all medical means at its disposal, the geopolitical configuration of the region has undergone a subtle but significant change.
Despite the effort of China to contain SARS, the ripple effect has already hit the shores of Southeast Asia, causing irreparable damage. Unless leaders of Southeast Asia are willing to be forgiving and forgetful again - unlikely - Beijing will stand accused of being in dereliction of its regional responsibility.
While the SARS problem remains unsolved, the reins of leadership will swing, slowly but surely, toward Tokyo. This is a bonanza that the Japanese government of Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi did not expect, nor for that matter relish, since SARS is above all a human tragedy. But the proverbial passing of batons would have come around anyway. This is because China has caused great consternation and despair to the region that only Japan can redeem, being in alignment with other developed countries in control of various multilateral trade agencies.
(©2003 Asia Times Online Co, Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact content@atimes.com for information on our sales and syndication policies.)
That and Afghanistan.
I am not saying to ban all flights. I am saying we should be heat-scanning persons returning to here, and also detaining suspect persons for blood tests, to be quarantined in airport or area hospitals for treatment. This is not a joke. We are treating it with complete casualness and I am appalled by it.
I think if we said that we would be using the wrong logic. The relevant fact here is that these countries are part of the region in which sars is spreading.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.