Posted on 04/25/2003 6:27:26 AM PDT by areafiftyone
DUBAI, April 25 (Reuters) - After years of shunning the Iraq-based People's Mujahideen as "terrorists", the United States might use Iran's main rebel group to pressure Tehran as tensions rise between the two countries over post-Saddam Iraq.
Washington has warned Shi'ite Muslim power Iran, which it has labelled as part of an "axis of evil", not to try to exploit a power vacuum left after the fall of Saddam Hussein.
And to make Tehran listen, some analysts say Washington may use the heavily armed Mujahideen as a sobering reminder.
Shi'ites form at least 60 percent of Iraq's population and many of their spiritual leaders have strong ties to Iran.
"The U.S. is groping to find its bearings on a post-war policy to stabilise Iraq and prevent anything Iran might do in regards to the Shi'ites," said Shireen Hunter of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
"A group like this might come handy."
U.S. officials say Iranian agents have crossed into neighbouring Iraq to promote Iran's influence among Iraq's majority Shi'ite Muslim community.
U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell told Arabic daily al-Hayat it was "regrettable" that the fall of the Saddam government had led to the arrival of Iranians in the south of the country, which he said could lead to instability.
Iran has denied interfering in Iraq. While staying neutral in the war, Tehran has welcomed Saddam's fall, but it has demanded that the United States leave Iraq immediately.
U.S.-REBELS DEAL SEEN UNLIKELY
A left-leaning Islamist group during the 1979 revolution against the U.S.-backed shah, the Mujahideen broke from the ruling clergy, accusing them of trying to monopolise power.
The group -- also known as Mujahideen Khalq -- waged a bloody campaign in the early 1980s to topple the Islamic Republic with a wave of assassinations of top officials.
But many agree the group lost much of its popular support after it collaborated with Baghdad during the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq war.
Hunter said there may be a debate about any cooperation with the Mujahideen, officially listed as a "terrorist" group but backed by some conservative politicians as a leverage over Iran.
"Some U.S. congressmen see Mujahideen as the best thing since sliced bread, others think it's a less reputable group. These dynamics are in play right now," Hunter told Reuters.
U.S.-led forces bombed bases of the Mujahideen, which had declared its neutrality in the war, but later agreed on a ceasefire with the rebels, allowing them to move into assembly areas in a "non-combat formation".
The Mujahideen voiced hope the ceasefire deal would allow it to stay in Iraq, where it has held bases since the mid-1980s.
"There is no basis for enmity between the Iranian resistance and America," Mohammad Mohaddesin, foreign affairs spokesman for the Mujahideen's political wing, told Reuters from Paris.
"The Mujahideen stand for secularism and democracy, while the Mullahs' regime in Iran is a main threat to peace and a source of (Islamic) fundamentalism," he said.
Other analysts expressed doubt over Washington striking a deal with the rebels despite a shared hostility towards Iran.
"America is now far too confident about its position in the region to enter such a deal. I don't think the Americans would ever put their trust in the Mujahideen," said London-based Iranian analyst Hazhir Teimourian.
"Without Saddam's financial support, I don't see Mujahideen surviving for too long. The U.S. may be keeping them in limbo until Iraq's interim government can decide about them."
A U.S. official said in February Washington would remove the Mujahideen from Iraq as part of Saddam's "brutal apparatus".
Anxious to see the Mujahideen finished off for good, Iran has offered to offer an amnesty to its members if they repent, while seeking the extradition of its leaders.
Some analysts said Washington may try to use the group, which has up to 8,000 fighters according to Western military experts, in a horsetrading deal with Tehran.
"Practically, the Americans have disarmed Mujahideen and are holding them in camps. They may now tell Iran: 'You stop your tricks with Iraqi Shi'ites and we will neutralise Mujahideen'," said Alireza Nourizadeh, another London-based Iranian analyst.
Mohaddesin said Mujahideen would continue its fight even if it had to leave Iraq, an ideal springboard for attacks on Iran.
"We had fought against the shah and the mullahs for 23 years before coming to Iraq...Our movement did not start with Iraq and will not end with Iraq," Mohaddesin said.
You gotta love Realpolitik. This is an excellent source of leverage over the mullahs.
I've just about had it with this guy. He was against Gulf War I, against going after Saddam then, against taking down the Taliban in Afghanistan, and last but not least, against Gulf War II. GROW SOME BALLS, COLIN.
Sheesh. Never trust someone named after a section of the intestine.
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