The end of the world as we know it (maybe)

the guardian unlimited ^ | april-24-2003 | Martin Rees

[green team 1999]

The end of the world as we know it (maybe)

Martin Rees, the astronomer royal, believes our civilisation will be lucky to survive the century. Simon Hattenstone hears why.

Thursday April 24, 2003 The Guardian

Martin Rees is rather chirpy for a horseman of the apocalypse. He welcomes me to his house in Cambridge with a firm handshake and optimistic smile. His dog Masha wags her tail, jumps up and insists we dance. "I'm just about to make a cup of tea. Would you like one. Milk? Sugar?" A tiny bit of sugar would be lovely, I say. He trots off happily, and leaves me dancing with Masha.

In his new book, Our Final Century, the astronomer royal predicts that we're doomed. Well, almost. The subtitle is not quite so hopeless: "Will the human race survive the 21st century" it asks. Ultimately, Rees concludes that we have no more than a 50-50 chance of surviving.

He acknowledges that many people have been surprised by the book. After all, Rees is an internationally respected astrophysicist best known for highly technical work on black holes, cosmic evolution and the six numbers that define the universe. And this is certainly not a technical book - in many ways, it is not even a science book. At heart it is a series of generalised but coherent essays, written by a deeply worried man.

Rees says he doesn't know why others are so puzzled about the book. "Some people have asked me why I've written a book that seems a departure from the books I've written before as though I've suddenly shifted my interests, and that's not the case at all." After all, he's voiced his fears about the abuse of technology for many years, notably about the nuclear arms race. Now, he says, he's simply expanded his thesis to incorporate new and even nastier risks.

Has he always been so pessimistic? "I don't think the new book is irredeemably pessimistic. It says there are threats but there are also opportunities. There are some technologies that are benign socially and benign environmentally. Miniaturisation means we consume less raw materials and the internet democratises information and access." In short we should be able to feed the world, save the planet and redistribute power on a global basis. Which is fantastic. But (and this is where Rees gets into his stride): "We are inevitably empowering more people with the potentiality to harm on an ever growing scale. And we're in a society which is more brittle and interconnected, and I think this is something we are going to have to confront. Also some new technologies don't require very large-scale equipment. It needs a hell of a big facility to make a nuclear weapon, but it doesn't in order to tinker with a virus. So when we have people all over the world who experiment with biotech, then of course we are concerned that even one or two of them might misuse that knowledge with the possibility of disastrous outcomes. What I am saying is that a weirdo, someone with a mindset that could now make a computer virus, may one day be able to create a genetically modified real virus, which could cause thousands of fatalities."

for the rest use link above.
for information and discusion only,not for profit etc,etc.

[Mitchell]

Ping.

[Dog Gone]

The whole article is as dreary as the part you excerpted. I can't recommend it, and I surely won't be buying his book.

[The Hon. Galahad Threepwood]

I'm not entirely sure why anyone would think that these questions (apart from the "killer asteroid" thingy) are within the particular competence of an astronomer (even one who seems to be fairly sensibly conservative for an old Labourite).

[TopQuark]

After all, he's voiced his fears about the abuse of technology for many years, notably about the nuclear arms race.

That and the fact that his dog has a Russian name leaves no doubt that his stance is absolutely neutral.

[meyer]

Gee.... I feel fine

Exactly my thoughts. Sadly, I can't quote any of the rest of the lyrics.

[TopQuark]

In short we should be able to feed the world, Note the typical socialist phrase: not that the world should be able to feed itself...

save the planet which tacitly assumes that it is in danger,

and redistribute power on a global basis. There you go: the man is at least honest. He hates the West, hates capitalism, and hates democracy.

[Billy_bob_bob]

This looks like a job for Exit Mundi!

http://www.xs4all.nl/~mke/exitmundi.htm

Enjoy!

[JennysCool]

It's The End Of The World As We Know It (And I Feel Fine)

That's great, it starts with an earthquake, birds and
snakes, an aeroplane and Lenny Bruce is not afraid.
Eye of a hurricane, listen to yourself churn - world
serves its own needs, dummy serve your own needs. Feed
it off an aux speak, grunt, no, strength, Ladder
start to clatter with fear fight down height. Wire
in a fire, representing seven games, a government
for hire and a combat site. Left of west and coming in
a hurry with the furies breathing down your neck. Team
by team reporters baffled, trumped, tethered cropped.
Look at that low playing! Fine, then. Uh oh,
overflow, population, common food, but it'll do. Save
yourself, serve yourself. World serves its own needs,
listen to your heart bleed dummy with the rapture and
the revered and the right, right. You vitriolic,
patriotic, slam, fight, bright light, feeling pretty
psyched.

It's the end of the world as we know it.
It's the end of the world as we know it.
It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine.

Six o'clock - TV hour. Don't get caught in foreign
towers. Slash and burn, return, listen to yourself
churn. Locking in, uniforming, book burning, blood
letting. Every motive escalate. Automotive incinerate.
Light a candle, light a votive. Step down, step down.
Watch your heel crush, crushed, uh-oh, this means no
fear cavalier. Renegade steer clear! A tournament,
tournament, a tournament of lies. Offer me solutions,
offer me alternatives and I decline.

It's the end of the world as we know it.
It's the end of the world as we know it.
It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine.

The other night I dreamt of knives, continental
drift divide. Mountains sit in a line, Leonard
Bernstein. Leonid Brezhnev, Lenny Bruce and Lester
Bangs. Birthday party, cheesecake, jelly bean, boom! You
symbiotic, patriotic, slam book neck, right? Right.

It's the end of the world as we know it.
It's the end of the world as we know it.
It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel
fine...fine...

(It's time I had some time alone)

[TopQuark]

Rees is actually Sir Martin. But although he's rather posh, at times rather formidable, he does not seem like a Sir Martin. He's too nice, too human.

See, most knighted by teh Queen are not human, and not nice the rich, that is.

[TheyConvictedOglethorpe]

Ultimately, Rees concludes that we have no more than a 50-50 chance of surviving.

OK, who wants to be the first one to say it?

[MHGinTN]

His point regarding a murderer who develops a particularly deadly virus is well taken. There are numerous suicide murderers plying their fantical trade int he Middle East. That they can create a virus that could wipe out the human race fails to sink in with a mindset that believes a fictional god protects them and cherishes them above all other humans, to the extent that said god commands them to slaughter any who do not bow down to allah. Witht hat in mind, I'd say his slightly less than 50 - 50 chance is a bit too high in favor of surviving the fanatics.

[TopQuark]

"Because of the greater risks it is all the more important to minimise the number of people who have grounds for being disaffected or aggrieved."

A logial fallacy: to prevent the result, you either must remove the motive for action (which he suggests), or make the action infeasible or too costly. Ensure that the aggrieved will pay dearly --- and you are done.

[green team 1999]

i think humans will stay on this planet for few more years,
oh wait,2012 is coming up soon.

[HuntsvilleTxVeteran]

Its The End Of The World As We Know It (And I Feel Fine)
(Print the Lyrics)


That's great, it starts with an earthquake, birds and snakes, an aeroplane,
Lenny Bruce is not afraid
Eye of a hurricane, listen to yourself churn - world
Serves its own needs, dont misserve your own needs. Feed
It off an aux speak, grunt, no, strength,turn, ladder
Start to clatter with fear fight down height. Wire
In a fire, representing seven games, in a government
For hire and a combat site. Left of west and coming in
A hurry with the furies breathing down your neck. Team
By team reporters baffled, trumped, tethered cropped
Look at that low playing! Fine, then. Uh oh,
Overflow, population, common food, but it'll do. Save
Yourself, serve yourself. World serves its own needs,
Listen to your heart bleed dummy with the rapture and
The revered and the right, right. You vitriolic,
Patriotic, slam, fight, bright light, feeling pretty
Psyched

It's the end of the world as we know it
It's the end of the world as we know it
It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine

Six o'clock - TV hour. Don't get caught in foreign
Towers. Slash and burn, return, listen to yourself
Churn. Locking in, uniforming,and book burning, blood
Letting. Every motive escalate. Automotive incinerate
Light a candle, light a motive. Step down, step down
Watch your heel crush, crushed, uh-oh, this means no
Fear cavalier. Renegade steer clear! A tournament,
a Tournament, a tournament of lies. Offer me solutions,
Offer me alternatives and I decline

(chorus)
It's the end of the world as we know it (it's time I had some time alone)
It's the end of the world as we know it (it's time I had some time alone)
It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine (it's time I had some
time alone)

I feel fine

(repeat chorus)

The other night I dreamt of knives, continental
Drift divide. Mountains sit in a line, Leonard
Bernstein. Leonid Brezhnev, Lenny Bruce and Lester
Bangs. Birthday party, cheesecake, jelly bean, boom! You
Symbiotic, patriotic, slam book neck, right? Right

(repeat chorus)

It's the end of the world as we know it
It's the end of the world as we know it
It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine (it's time I had some
time alone)

(repeat chorus 2x)

Fine
It's the end of the world as we know it (it's time I had some time alone)

[Dog Gone]

"I describe myself sometimes as a practising but non-believing Christian. I don't believe in any dogmas. But on the other hand I do believe there is a benefit and value to be gained from participating in common rituals."

Ah, participating in rituals you don't believe in is always beneficial and valuable. I wish I could remember that.

[staytrue]

That they can create a virus that could wipe out the human race

That virus does not exist. Nature is tinkering everyday with trillions and trillions of mutations in viruses. If there was one out there, nature would have found it already. Nature has come up with some really bad ones already and may come up with some new nasties, but they will not wipe out the humans.

[chilepepper]

Of course, the unstated "solution" to this global catastrophism is, ta-da (drumroll please)...

world socialism!

in fact, to a socialist the solution to EVERYTHING is socialism, which of course implies society that is completely and totally controlled. no thanks

[meyer]

Hey, thanks, JennysCool. I'll be singing that for the rest of the night!