Beijing Posts Surge in SARS Cases as Infection Fears Mount

New York Times ^ | 4-23-03 | ERIK ECKHOLM

[_Jim]

Thousands flee Beijing

In a city of how many millions? Sounds like that's hardly newsworthy ...

[Dog Gone]

As with most illnesses, this is likely to have a much larger impact on the third world. But we can't stop colds or influenza in this country, and this appears to be far more contagious and deadly.

If we can somehow stabilize the spread of it, we'll be fine. West Nile Virus killed five people in Houston last year, and the world didn't end (except for those poor souls). There haven't been any SARS deaths in the entire country, yet.

But as long as the numbers are increasing in spite of all our efforts, it's a huge concern.

[Nov3]

But as long as the numbers are increasing in spite of all our efforts, it's a huge concern.

Don't get me wrong, I am concerned. I just don't think American society is as vulnerable as Hong Kong or Bejing. They may reach the number of cases necessary for the disease to explode. The numbers are still too low relative to the population to explode (as far as we know). If it continues to progress in numbers it may reach the point where everyone in Bejing will come into contact with it. That won't be fun.

[Nov3]

Correction the death rate for the 1918 flu depending on which source varied from 1 to 2.5 percent. Still not near the death rate for SARS.

[_Jim]

Hong Kong or Bejing ... may reach the number of cases necessary for the disease to explode.

I don't think that's likely in Hong Kong - for one thing I think we're past that point - owing to the third stage as listed here:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/898791/posts?page=9#9

In the third stage, the rate of infection will slow down and thus, the number of infected cases will stabilize, as epidemics tend to display a self-correcting character for the rising risk of infection causes potential victims to take self-protective measures (Philipson and Posner, 1996).

and secondly Hong Kong has had experience cracking down swiftly on this kind of contagion. Witness the 1.6 million chickens they had slaughtered in 1997 in order to prevent the spread of the Avian Influenza Virus back then.

[InShanghai]

Meanwhile, how many American executives, salesmen and ex pats are in China on business right now?

Thousands.

[Nov3]

They have done the correct thing in Hong Kong and Singapore and hopefully these measures will work. I wonder whether we could implement these measures in NYC?

China may have screwed the pooch however. We will know in 2 to 3 weeks. They won't be able to put a happy face on this if it starts reaching the population as a whole. So far the reported numbers are insignificant in a city of multiple millions. An overtaxed hospital system putting 5-6000 cases out on the street would get real ugly real fast.

It hopefully won't come to that because of the ineptitude and lying of the governement.

[ido_now]

My-o-my it's SARS again .....

THE WORLD IS COMING TO AN END AND YOUR ALL GONNA DIE!


SARS: This is basically pneumonia. It’s been reported that in the US, with a population of 280 million, there are about 50,000 deaths each year from pneumonia. That is 137 deaths per day. The world population of 6 billion would translate into 2,932 deaths per day from pneumonia. Now let me see, SARS is an epidemic, a pandemic, holly-cow, it's killing everyone. SARS has killed many less that 1,000 people in a month. And people all over the world are running around with surgical mask over their faces! As the now dead, Bill Cooper used to say these people are “Sheep-people”. This is how you know you are being feed BS!


Epidemic – Pandemic: During the Influenza (Pneumonia) Epidemic of 1918-19 over 30 million died world wide, that’s 41,667 deaths per day. With a world population of about 4.5 billion versus 6 billion today that would mean a daily death toll of 55,556 today.


Now that’s what should be called an epidemic.

[Nov3]

I just got off the phone with the GM of one of the air freight companies here in Memphis (no not FedEx). We started discussing SARS and he said one of his clients has been Air Freighting 10,000 pounds (POUNDS!) of surgical masks every day for 5 days to Toronto at a cost of roughly a dollar a pound. Toronto is a reasonable driving distance from here. The need is that intense that they are air freighting.

[Dog Gone]

Do you think it started off at 41,000 deaths a day? What was the mortality rate, and how does it compare to this disease?

---

The death rate from SARS in Hong Kong has increased to 7.2 per cent of reported cases - up from about 5 per cent earlier in the crisis - and officials fear it may go higher.

Hong Kong's toll has topped 100, with 105 of the 1,458 cases ending in fatalities as of yesterday afternoon.

Hong Kong's Health Department had been reporting the number of deaths divided by the number of cases, but some have questioned that calculation, saying some people already in hospitals would still die and push the numbers higher.

The South China Morning Post quoted two experts in today's editions as saying the mortality rate in Hong Kong might end up around 10 per cent.

"Many academics estimated the death rate to be between 5 per cent and 6 per cent," said Sydney Chung Sheung-chee, dean of medicine at the Chinese University of Hong Kong. "But I believe it has been underestimated. I would hope that the figure would stay as low as possible, but a conservative estimate would be at least 10 per cent."

An instructor of surgery at Harvard University, Henry Niman, has said the death rate should be calculated by comparing fatalities with people who fully recover from SARS.

That method would give Hong Kong a mortality rate of 16.7 per cent from Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, based on the latest statistics released yesterday.

Hong Kong's health secretary, Dr Yeoh Eng-kiong, has said an accurate mortality rate will be available only when the crisis ends, and it remains unclear when that can happen.

link

[Prince Charles]

Holy smokes! That's some really good information you've put together there. You should call the Centers for Disease Control at 1-800-311-3435 and let them know that you've figured this all out. And to think of all the money they've wasted trying to do research on this!

[AnimalLover]

Just a thought but is it at all possible that SARS was
a Biological Experiment gone awry?

The speed with which it spreads and it's mutating all
along, I just wonder.

[Prince Charles]

Just a thought but is it at all possible that SARS was a Biological Experiment gone awry?

Chaos theory tells us that anything can happen at least once. However, it's much more likely IMHO that SARS was bred in the slums of China.

[forewarning]

By similar logic, "Soviet nuclear weapons never killed a single American -- what was all the fuss about?"

[per loin]

They've been adding over 100 a day to their totals. It's 693 now. I think it's pretty reasonable to assume they will add another 107 within a week, don't you?

Sounds very reasonable to me. They added 89 on Thursday to bring the present Beijing total to 782.

[aristeides]

SARS Fears Grip Beijing: Number of cases in city surges.

[aristeides]

Beijing Closes Major Hospital Amid SARS Fears.

[_Jim]

it's pretty reasonable to assume they will add another 107 ... very reasonable ...

THE original post by the original poster contained a very definite statement about 'future' deaths.

As I responded in my original statement (I think it was in this thread) "Like the stock market, past history does not insure future performance".

I still stand by that statement.

A further comment I made referenced the abscence of an 'exponential growth' in cases reported ...

[per loin]

Read your post #22 on this thread.