Fresh doubt cast on Sars cause

BBC ^ | April 23, 2003

[_Jim]

So far, more than 4,000 people worldwide have fallen ill with Sars,

I did a quick look at the statistics (it was either last night or earlier today) - and about half of those had also recovered!

[Nov3]

In the third stage, the rate of infection will slow down and thus, the number of infected cases will stabilize, as epidemics tend to display a self-correcting character for the rising risk of infection causes potential victims to take self-protective measures (Philipson and Posner, 1996).

This proved true in the reading I have done on the 1918 influenza. It also mutated into a less virulent strain and died out in relatively short order. Of course that was after 20,000,000 deaths. The living conditions in urban centers were vastly different then however.

[tet68]

. The living conditions in urban centers were vastly different then however.

Yes, however the ability to travel is that much greater too.

[_Jim]

Yes, however the ability to travel is that much greater too.

Why do people keep repeating that old saw?

The FACT of the matter is - contagion such as the Spanish Lady, AKA The Influenza of 1918 affected the entire world - with it's *transport* assisted by world-wide steamship travel ...

[Dog Gone]

I did a quick look at the statistics (it was either last night or earlier today) - and about half of those had also recovered!

Well, that certainly is the optimistic spin on those statistics. I mean, it's true, but I like to think whenever I get sick that I have much better than a 50/50 chance of a speedy recovery.

When the news on this illness first broke, the initial reports were that NOBODY was getting well. That's probably because treatment was experimental, and the length of the illness wasn't known. Apparently, the average hospital stay is something like three weeks, and then there's further recovery at home.

So, yes, it's good to know that half of the people who catch the disease are deemed to have recovered. But it's obviously a very severe illness.

[Nov3]

Yes, however the ability to travel is that much greater too.

I don't think the speed of transport will make the difference. It will be the transport itself. One "super spreader" or whatever they call them on a crowded subway car or airliner could ruin a lot of peoples days. Fortunately we don't have troop ships, bootcamps and or as bad slums like we had in 1918.

[Nov3]

I mean, it's true, but I like to think whenever I get sick that I have much better than a 50/50 chance of a speedy recovery.

The death rate for this influenza is 2 to five times the 1918 virus. Fifty percent of them did not get well. 97.5 to 99 % did. That sounds a lot better than 50%.

[Nov3]

Oh the victims of the 1918 flu did not tie up the hospitals for three weeks either.

[Dog Gone]

There's no question that this is more deadly than the Spanish Flu pandemic in terms of mortality percentage. SARS is running at a minimum of 5% and might be over 15%, since we're trying to calculate a moving target. It doesn't look like it will get anywhere near 50% although we haven't seen it go untreated in a major population center with poor facilities.

The big fear is what it potentially could do in places like India or rural China. So far, India is in better shape than even America in terms of cases, but China is going to serve as the test case.

Assuming the numbers are remotely reliable, if less than 5,000 cases exist there a month from now, I'll feel pretty good about controlling it to manageable numbers around the world.

[Nov3]

Assuming the numbers are remotely reliable, if less than 5,000 cases exist there a month from now, I'll feel pretty good about controlling it to manageable numbers around the world.

5,000? Hell, I will be ecstatic if there are less than 10,000 cases a month from now.

[ido_now]

Doubt? How can there be any doubt? Ever since the government announced AIDS and cure which they haven't found for over 20 years, how can anyone be in doubt?

THE WORLD IS COMING TO AN END AND YOUR ALL GONNA DIE!


SARS: This is basically pneumonia. It’s been reported that in the US, with a population of 280 million, there are about 50,000 deaths each year from pneumonia. That is 137 deaths per day. The world population of 6 billion would translate into 2,932 deaths per day from pneumonia. Now let me see, SARS is an epidemic, a pandemic, holly-cow, it's killing everyone. SARS has killed many less that 1,000 people in a month. And people all over the world are running around with surgical mask over their faces! As the now dead, Bill Cooper used to say these people are “Sheep-people”. This is how you know you are being feed BS!

Epidemic – Pandemic: During the Influenza (Pneumonia) Epidemic of 1918-19 over 30 million died world wide, that’s 41,667 deaths per day. With a world population of about 4.5 billion versus 6 billion today that would mean a daily death toll of 55,556 today.

Now that’s what should be called an epidemic.

[riri]

If you are implyng that I am making this story up...why? God knows I wish I was.

excerpted from Health system's misjudgments escalated new SARS outbreak

The man's family was quarantined for 10 days, but one of his sons went to two or three different hospitals with SARS symptoms after his quarantine period ended. But he was sent home because hospital staff there did not suspect he had SARS, or see any clear link between him and the outbreak at Scarborough Grace -- a decision Dr. Basrur described as regrettable.

[Mitchell]

Didn't China also transport SARS patients, apparently for the purpose of keeping their existence hidden? This moving of patients seems particularly foolish.

[_Jim]

If you are implyng that I am making this story up

Not all of us are privy to all your posts or all news stories over the course of a day. Also, many-a-statement has been by posters in the past with nary a backing in fact ... I just want to prevent that from happening again ...

[Lucas1]

A very severe illness indeed...

Being here in Toronto...I can tell you that those who get sick get VERY VERY sick. Many have ended up in the hospital...some on ventilators. It takes many many weeks to recover...and then there is concern about damage to the lungs...along with possible memory loss. It is a VERY serious illness...EVEN IF YOU RECOVER!

[Lucas1]

Yes but what you forget is that this disease is just in the beginning stages. If it actually does "get out" in full force...then your x number of people who die from the flu everyday will look pathetic. This has the potential to kill millions of people...in short order. That is what you forget.

[Dog Gone]

Hey, wait a minute. You're not singing out of the same hymnbook as your Mayor...

[sytole]

I can confirm this. The Ontario health authorities were operating under the asumption that they had all cases linked to the index case. The guy that went to the hospital had no such link and thus he was turned away, three times. Somebody dropped the ball big TIME.

[tet68]

. Fortunately we don't have troop ships, bootcamps and or as bad slums like we had in 1918.

No, but we have a transit system that can send an infected person a thousand miles across country, then via tube across a major city, spreading the virus in a matter of hours, to my mind that ranks right up there with crowded slums etc.

Something like Ebola or hemoragic fever would be horrible to contemplate. Then again, this may be worse.

[keri]

...transporting infected patients distances as great as 30 miles.

What was the rationale for this and who made this decision? Health management bureaucrats, maybe?