Posted on 04/22/2003 8:21:38 PM PDT by DeaconBenjamin
BEIJING - The talk in Beijing now is that America's 'shock and awe' with smart bombs was nothing compared to the shock and awe by the 'smart virus' causing Sars.
For the past half year, Sars, which began in the coastal province of Guangdong, has swept into inland China and across the globe. While at first China tried to restrict its spread without public warning, things got out of control quickly. When people in Hongkong, Singapore and Vietnam began to be infected, Sars became a bona fide domestic and international crisis for the new Chinese leadership, unseen since the 1997 Asian financial crisis.
Like that crisis, Sars also struck at a seemingly improbable time. In 1997, East Asian countries were basking in the glory of the regional economic miracle and looking forward to another decade of robust economic growth. Likewise, China was also in a great mood before Sars struck.
Indeed, just before the 'official' outbreak, the Chinese Communist Party concluded its 16th congress, and a new group of leaders took the reins in Beijing. Economic growth in the first quarter was more robust than most economists predicted. International trade was booming, and foreign direct investment (FDI) continued to arrive. China was looking forward to the next 20 years as a window of strategic importance for its development into an economic powerhouse.
Things are quite different now, and this may be but the beginning.
China came out of the 1997 crisis much stronger. By upholding the value of its currency, it earned toasts from its neighbours, the United States, Europe and the International Monetary Fund as the 'bulwark of stability', and shored up its image as a 'responsible great power'. It became the new FDI draw, pulling money from all over the world.
This time, however, China risks going back to its pre-1997 crisis status.
Sars has already struck China's foreign trade and tourism, which now contribute significantly to the country's total GDP. The economic growth rate this year is unlikely to reach the 8 per cent predicted at the beginning of this year. Indeed, the World Bank has already lowered its forecast from 8 to 7.5 per cent, and may go even lower if the crisis cannot be contained within the first half year.
Second, China's image as a 'responsible great power' is in jeopardy. Regional countries are complaining that it did not alert them earlier so that they could have taken precautionary measures. Opinion columns are lashing out that China cannot be a responsible great power and does not know how to behave like one because Beijing has yet to grasp that its policies will have far greater consequence in the age of globalisation.
Third and most important, the crisis underscores the fact that the country's crisis-management system remains extremely inadequate and ineffective. This ineffectiveness is caused not only by the lack of a basic infrastructure but, perhaps more importantly, also by a lack of openness that is absolutely necessary in these ever-connected times.
China's crisis-management experience largely came from its heroic struggle against the great Yangtze flood in 1998. With determination and manpower, it beat back the flood. But to handle Sars, sheer manpower is not enough. It requires the integrated work of experts and organisations, not soldiers, workers and peasants. Most important, it requires an open and transparent government.
All these factors are prompting a serious re-examination of how China should be governed and what role the media should play. With proper attitudes and actions, China can still come out of the crisis in a much stronger position, just as it did after the 1997 crisis.
First, as recent directives from the Politburo indicated, much more openness may emerge in the media. While it may not lead to freedom to criticise the party or the central government, it would give less power to local officials to silence local and national media outlets. The media will remain the voice of the party (and therefore the state), but it will also become its eyes.
Second, the crisis may also lead to a new set of rules for appraising local officials' performance, which is now based largely on good economic growth numbers. Most local officials believe that they will get promoted only if they present good news, not bad news, and so hide budding crises and disasters from the public and the central government.
This was evident long before the Sars crisis. Local officials and governments routinely tried to cover up such incidents as mine explosions and food poisoning that killed scores. The central government now understands that such horrendous disregard of human life is undermining people's trust in it.
If the new leadership does learn the right lesson from the Sars crisis, we may see far more bad news coming from China than before. But that should not be a reason to avoid China or pull out investments. Rather, it should be welcomed as a sign that China is truly becoming a more open and civilised society. Only a government that is responsible for its people will be a truly responsible great power. From this angle, there may be a silver lining. As the Chinese characters for crisis suggest, a crisis is both a challenge and an opportunity.
The writer is deputy director of the Centre for Regional Security Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing. He is also a co-director of the Sino-American Security Dialogue. This personal comment appeared in Asia Times.
given the empty streets in beijing i'd say the folks there already know this, even better and sooner than we did, censorship or not -- remember the Tianamen FAX machines...
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