Show of Shia power unsettles the allies

The Times (U.K.) ^ | 04/23/03 | Richard Beeston

[DannyTN]

I'm not really sure how I could get involved. Other than putting an occasional opinion out here, and hoping the idea ends up getting presented to those actually doing the structuring.

The key I think is going to be a weaker federal system than we have. The US has proven that if you give the Federal Government the power to tax and distribute funds however they see fit, they can effectively exert control over how the states govern.

All the Feds have to do is provide matching funds. Example, the Feds have no power to regulate speed limits in states, but by providing highway funds to those states that bend to the Feds will, they were able to enforce speed limits nationwide.

The advantage that the US has is that everyone buys into the bill of rights and the Judicial branches authority to protect those rights. That's one of the challenges, I see in Iraq, is that the Shiites aren't necessarily going to buy into basic rights. If Islamic law is allowed to trump constitutional law, Iraw will falter. It is going to be critical to get the Shiites to agree in such a way that they are bound by Islamic law to honor the constitution.

[risk]

I hope someone in our government is listening to you, montag813.

[risk]

Flamed? What are the threads?

[Wolfstar]

"Lovely people," indeed, Billorites. And VBM, one does not need to be a handwringing reporter to see reason to fear the kind of religious extremism currently on display in Karbala. Seeing men dancing around in a blind frenzy beating themselves bloody over some dude who had his head chopped off about 800 or so years ago is terrifying. These are not people with whom one can reason in a 21st Century context.

[risk]

That's one of the challenges, I see in Iraq, is that the Shiites aren't necessarily going to buy into basic rights. If Islamic law is allowed to trump constitutional law, Ira[q] will falter.

Yes, I agree. I don't think that Germany or Japan had a lot of citizens lining up to support our occupation. I hope we're not planning to deviate too much from the "successful" model established by MacArthur and Marshall.

People, I believe the Bush administration tests the waters by putting out various ideas and seeing their reaction. I think sites like FR are monitored to see what the "real" patriots are thinking. Let your opinions be heard. Also, write to the President and his staff and explain how you think.

[Light Speed]

Interesting rounds being made on the talk show ciruit;

EX Director of the CIA James Woolsey was on yesterday...commenting on the Shia marches.

"Iran is active in thought projections in Iraq....this does not bode well for reconstruction".

Iraq is on the verge of tensions that rival Northern Ireland when groups collect to march.

What goes as a media play..."Hey look they are liberated...watch them march...
Is a Kodak of "Win the masses...win their minds".

Iran..exploiting

Nothing new....

[johnb838]

I suspect that the Iranian Ayatollahs think they will be able to run us off just like they did Carter -- with the same strategy. If that's the case they are completely misunderestimating GWB, like everybody else.

[johnb838]

Look, the media has been slobbering for a blood-bath in Kerbala ever since the looting stopped being the story du jour. Let the Shi'a have their little S/M fest, then they'll all go home and we'll move on. This is definitely not the time to be going wobbly.

[Imperialist]

Impose a constitution like in Japan. We won, we rule.

[Minty]

The next one to get kill will be Ayatollah Ali Sistani.

[Wolfstar]

Going wobbly, no. Observing the dangers — and, yes, terrors — of a 12th Century religious fanaticism that is totally alien to a 21st Century world is hardly "going wobbly."

[joesnuffy]

I heard there were ten million of them in Baghdad stuffed into one phone booth making abnoxious collect calls to the NY Times

[jed turtle]

"This can only be accomplished if WE impose a constitution like we did in Japan and Germany"

bingo! this isn't the first country of religious militant zealots that we've put the brakes on. if a civil war breaks out there between sunni and shia, i hope we stand back and let it play out long enough to let both sides exhaust themselves. but perhaps SARS will intervene and kick the poop out of all of them.

[Theresa]

“There is real concern,” a senior British official said. “The Iraqi Shia are the only group to have made any real impact so far. There was a feeling that the Shia were more secular than those in Iran. Now we are not so sure.”

I am real worried. This is not going right.

[browardchad]

The key I think is going to be a weaker federal system than we have.

That is the key. Iraq has never been a cohesive country, and 25 years of dictatorship have effectively strangled initiative, leaving a void that is only too vulnerable to religious fanaticism, which Iran and Syria are only too glad to promote.

I know the Kurds have their own issues, but they are beginning to look like the voice of reason compared to the Sunnis and Shiites. I was looking through the Yahoo Iraq war slideshow today, and was struck by the orderly meeting between Garner and the Kurds, versus the screaming Shiite mobs in the south.

This is going to be tough, and I think the U.S. is going to have to get tough to pull it off.

[meenie]

A federal system has the chance of success by accommodating wishes of different sectors of Iraq in a loose confederation. Unfortunately, the politicians in this country have forgotten this was the way our country was originally formed. A large regulated central authority lacks the diversity our Republic originally had.

Now we see the fallacy in operation in Afghanistan which we call democracy. The only control in Afghanistan is in the capitol. The rest of the country insists on governing their own area. The same model is now appearing in Iraq. If we continue trying to impose a strong central authority it will fail.

[ETERNAL WARMING]

The Shias are no angels either. Just what Iraq needs...an Islamic state like Iran has. With 60% of the population being Shia, the US has it's work cut out for it. They're the ones now calling for the US to leave now. They can hardly wait to install Shia law and cleanse Iraq of other factions.

[Filibuster_60]

None of us should have expected a liberal democracy to pop out of nowhere. The next 6 months will be crucial. If there aren't very encouraging signs by then, we should drop the pipe-dream of keeping Iraq unified and stable at the same time. No matter what, it looks less and less likely that we'll have a long-term military presence in Iraq, even if that were the original plan.

[Filibuster_60]

The Iraqi Shiites are Arabs, not Persians like Iranians - although the Ayatollahs are heavily Arabized since Arabic is the lingua franca of Islam.

Frankly, I'm more comfortable with countries like Iran - where the leaders hate America but the public doesn't - than countries like Saudi Arabia, where the leaders don't like us and the public hates us even more. If it comes down to a choice between two evils, we'll have to go for the lesser one.