SARS may stay around forever

Washington Post via Detroit News ^ | April 22, 2003 | Rob Stein

[sarcasm]

Despite an unparalleled global counterattack, severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is likely to be with humanity indefinitely, infectious disease experts say.

A scientific consensus appears to have emerged that the window for stamping out the dangerous new lung infection has probably closed because the SARS virus has become entrenched in many places.

"It's definitely here to stay," said Michael Osterholm, director of the University of Minnesota's Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy

< SNIP >

This is a disease that is now probably endemic in China. It's definitely an epidemic in Hong Kong, as it is in Toronto," said Donald Low of Mount Sinai Hospital in Toronto. "Patients will carry it to other countries and introduce it into new countries. Some of those countries will be able to respond adequately and other countries won't have the resources or expertise. It's bleak. It really is bleak."

[TigerLikesRooster]

Re #1

I read from a news report that SARS could be a seasonal illness, which tends to strike people in the winter. Hopefully, when the weather warms up further, this will go away at least until the next winter.

[LPStar]

That may be true, but I don't think Hong Kong is very cold at any time of year, is it?

[sarcasm]

Couldn't it also mutate and come back stronger?

[per loin]

Yesterday's high was 84 F, low was 73 F in Hong Kong.

[Consort]

The obsession with SARS will outlast the disease.

[TigerLikesRooster]

RE #3

That could mean that we are safe only during the really hot summer or may be never. That is troubling.

[TigerLikesRooster]

RE #4

That could happen.

[11B3]

Let's hope humanity outlasts the disease. If it mutates more deadly, as well as more transmissable we're in for some rough times. At it's current rate, China is living on borrowed time already. They will become internationally quarantined. Eastern Canada may get the same.

[Consort]

I wonder how many people it was designed to kill.

[TigerLikesRooster]

Re #6

A lot more people travels globally than it used to. Even if the disease is not a whole lot worse than other known flu varieties, it can spread wider and faster because human hosts travel a lot these days.

It is possible that more virulent strain can evolve from the current one if the disease can be spread so widely due to its hosts' behavior. There is a research done on this topic. If human hosts are relatively isolated, virulent strain cannot survive among host population for long. But if they are not, more and more virulent strain can evolve because while one host dies, others will pick it up from the dying host. The disease will stay in the population, preying on new hosts, while it is killing old hosts. The faster the spread of the disease, the more likely is the disease to turn virulent and still survive among the host population.

[11B3]

I don't think it was designed to get out of the lab - call it a 'beta' I guess. Chances are that a lab worker was somehow exposed and took it home.

There are a number of things I have yet to hear about SARS that I think are important for all of us to know so we can protect ourselves:

1. The ACTUAL transmissibility. i.e.: When you have X number of people in an enclosed area with the virus, what percent of them will come down with SARS? So far, the official statements are all over the place on this.

2. What actually KILLS the virus for disinfection of surfaces? Gamma radiation? UV light? I've read that chlorine works, but that kills us as well in many forms. Ozone?

3. Official reports state that the virus can survive on smooth surfaces for over 24 hours. How about on porous surfaces? Like paper money? What about inside vacuum packaged or other packaged goods? Basically, what about all of the crap that comes here from China? Longshoremen here in Tacoma have already refused to unload a couple of arrivals from Hong Kong and China - thankfully.

4. What's it going to take to get the borders sealed against this? (Yes, I'm dreaming, I know.....) If not sealed, then when is the government going to set up quarantined areas for all who are entering the country from effected areas? 10 days - with or without symptoms if you arrive here from China, Hong Kong, Toronto, etc. In the case of products instead of humans, they should be required to be fully irradiated or otherwise treated upon entry, plus have to sit for the 10 days. NO EXCEPTIONS!!!!! If the SOBs are going to make me wait three days to buy a gun, then why not make someone who is positively going to kill with a virus wait for 10 days?

5. If this starts getting out of hand here in the US, what can each of us do to avoid it?

Any ideas out there?

[goldstategop]

Its just like the common cold. Over time it will attenuate into something less lethal. But there's no getting rid of it. This isn't polio or smallpox.

[sarcasm]

Officials baffled by spread among health workers

Toronto has called in experts from the Atlanta-based Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to find out why SARS is continuing to spread among the city's health-care workers.

They are expected to arrive today.

Despite strict infection control procedures that now include masks, face shields, double-gloving and wearing double gowns while treating patients with severe acute respiratory syndrome, public health officials said yesterday the total number of Ontario health-care workers with probable or suspect cases of SARS has grown to 66.

"This is critical," Dr. Donald Low, chief of microbiology at Sunnybrook hospital, said.

"We thought the precautions we were currently implementing would be adequate to protect workers, but what we are seeing is that, despite those precautions, they are still becoming ill.

"Why is that?" Low asked.

"We want the CDC and their experts to specifically look at that."

Health Canada has also been asked for assistance in determining how SARS is spreading to health-care workers here.

The decision to call in extra help comes hard on the heels of news that two more health-care workers are sick with SARS and may unknowingly have exposed others to the flu-like disease:

[decimon]

Maybe some tea will help Immune

[sarcasm]

How 'bout papaya extract.

[decimon]

There ya go. Add some oil of oregano and we can suck SARS all day without worry.

I'd like more info on those herbs they're using in China and if any are proving effective.

[Eric Cassano]

Despite an unparalleled global counterattack, severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is likely to be with humanity indefinitely, infectious disease experts say.

"Unparalleled global counterattack"? I must have blinked and missed it.

I wouldn't consider a "Don't wear masks/Please visit Chinatown" campaign by Chamber of Commerce-types much of a counterattack. Oh wait... they handed out informative cards at the airport. My mistake.

What's next from our proudly-baffled scientific community? A counterattack against accidental drowning by discouraging the use of life jackets? (Unless you're in close contact with water of course.)

The scientists should start working on a nighttime, sniffling, sneezing, coughing, aching, stuffy head, fever so we don't die medicine.