[Starrgaizr]

1.3 billion Chinese x say 10% infection rate x 5-7% fatal = 6-9 million potential deaths in China alone. Proportionately more for higher infection rates. Our health care is better, and perhaps we will develop a vaccine in a couple of years. But this could be the biggest pandemic since 1918. We could seal all borders now, but it may be too late and, in any event, it won't happen until it won't help.

For comparison, worldwide AIDS deaths in 2002 totaled 3.1 million. 21.8 million AIDS deaths since beginning of epidemic. (http://www.avert.org/worldstats.htm)

[InShanghai]

This is a bit ridiculous, but found on the Guardian

...one of the scientists who discovered the HIV virus warned yesterday of a looming health catastrophe if Sars combines with Aids.

100 more Sars cases in Beijing

[FrogMom]

1.3 billion Chinese x say 10% infection rate x 5-7% fatal = 6-9 million potential deaths in China alone.

The Spanish Flu in 1918-1919 affected 20% of the world's population. This appears to be more virulent.

If only 20% of the worlds population gets this one, there will be 1,200,000,000 people with SARs.

The SARS death rate is currently running 4.5%, Spanish Flu ran about 2.5%. Of course, the death rate is closer to 12% in Canada and who the hell knows what the real Chinese statistics are. 4.5% of that 1.2 billion sick would mean 54 million dead. If the medical infrastructure collapses (like when we run out of respirators), that death toll would be higher.