China admits Sars may spread out of control

The Independent -UK ^ | 22 April 2003 | Cahal Milmo

[InvisibleChurch]

Who cares about this mongolian virus???

we have cable internet access, major wars fought and won in 3 weeks, cable news that brings info w/in minutes, leaps in medical/technical knowledge... on top of that, we live in a society where someone else is at fault for anything that befalls us; it's easy to understand why people think that this problem should be taken care of so as to not inconvenience them...

[Beck_isright]

And how many people arrived from Asia from March 1, 2003 until this week? 1,000? 10,000? 50,000? How many arrived via Canada? This is mind boggling. I think the quarentine at the border is like the little boy putting his finger in they dyke while he's drowning.

[Walkingfeather]

Boy I couldn't have stated it better. Unfortunately I am not sure what there is to prepare for, prevention wise?

[John Valentine]

As far as I know Post #53 is correct, there are only "suspected" and "probable" cases in the US.

If you know of five "confirmed", I'd like to know where thiat information came from becaue it does not correspond with the latest information in my posession.

[InShanghai]

You may be interested in this:

MORTALITY RATE
In Hongkong for different age groups as of April 15:
AGE GROUP	MORTALITY RATE
0-14	0
15.34	0.4
35-54	3.6
55-64	6.5
65-74	18.9
over 75	28.6
Source: Hongkong's Department of Health



HONGKONG: Health officials stumped by more resistant cases showing up

[Bluewave]

Preparation is not a pleasant subject. Even my wife doesn't want to talk about it and I don't like to preach it. Generally, we all need to think about and plan a strategy to stay alive during a pandemic. Any rational plan involves self isolation. Self isolation includes all necessities for living, including air.

Just as some would sit at home with their guns in their hands to stave off a foreign invasion, we need to plan to stay at home to fight off SARS.

I'm just thinking aloud, but I'm wondering if we shouldn't have a 30 day supply of food on hand, a water and air purification system, and medical supplies for home care.

I am thinking we are all going to have to make a decision to either panic and do the right thing or stay calm and really screw up. I've never been confronted with these kinds of decisions before. Any suggestions?

[John Valentine]

Here's the issue that won't go away: even if we can control the cases that are alrady here and in Canada - and there is no gurantee of success on that front - in other parts of the world, this won't be the case.

We will soon be continuously inundated with infectious people, often with no symptoms, entering our territory. They will come in increasing numbers as the disease spreads through South Asia, Africa and Europe, all areas so far relatively unaffected.

We are now in the very very early stages of this thing and we have no appreciation whatsoever of the horror it has the potential to become by next winter. There are not too many people left that can remember 1912.

[FrogMom]

1.3 billion Chinese x say 10% infection rate x 5-7% fatal = 6-9 million potential deaths in China alone.

The Spanish Flu in 1918-1919 affected 20% of the world's population. This appears to be more virulent.

If only 20% of the worlds population gets this one, there will be 1,200,000,000 people with SARs.

The SARS death rate is currently running 4.5%, Spanish Flu ran about 2.5%. Of course, the death rate is closer to 12% in Canada and who the hell knows what the real Chinese statistics are. 4.5% of that 1.2 billion sick would mean 54 million dead. If the medical infrastructure collapses (like when we run out of respirators), that death toll would be higher.

[Brimack34]

And just think a few weeks ago Drudge was ripping Bush and Bush in Florida for thinking of a quaratine!!! What up now Matt?

[John Valentine]

First of all, you had better be thinking more along the lines of six months or more. You certainly won't find that things have returned to normal 30 days after the disease shows up in your neighborhood.

You will need to soak all food in a bleach solution. You will want to wash your hands very often, and keep all surfaces hospital clean. Don't go out without a filter mask.

Avoid all contract with strangers, or indeed anyone for whom you cannot account for at all times. You won't be able to work in an office environment without serious risk. Most offices will eventually be closed anyway, so this will not be a problem after a while. Getting food will be a real problem, and hoarding will begin soon if it has not already. I can't recommend hoarding, but prudence would dictate that you will need to be pretty much self sufficient for a prolonged period.

Some may see this as overly pessimistic, but the next few weeks will tell the tale.

If there is no breakout, we may be OK, if there is a breakout of the diasease into South Asia, Europe and Africa, or the caseload in Canada starts rising again, we will all need to think very hard about the weeks and months ahead.

[Ken H]

Looks like SARS does hit the elderly the hardest, at least in Hong Kong.

[per loin]

There is one suspected case in NY state, near the Canadian border, a bartender.

[per loin]

I hear that Nightline will be covering SARS tonight. Sorry if this note is too late for the east folk.

[John Valentine]

The SARS death rate is currently running 4.5%.

This is a very misleading statistic and is based on a wrongheaded ratio. The true death rate looks to be between 15% and 20%, based on all the figures we have as of now. Some put it at 25%. Read this article: Docs Wrangle Over SARS Death Rate. You'll never use the 4.5% figure again. http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/897275/posts

[John Valentine]

The SARS death rate is currently running 4.5%.

This is a very misleading statistic and is based on a wrongheaded ratio. The true death rate looks to be between 15% and 20%, based on all the figures we have as of now. Some put it at 25%.

Read this article: Docs Wrangle Over SARS Death Rate. You'll never use the 4.5% figure again.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/897275/posts

[EternalHope]

If you know of five "confirmed", I'd like to know where thiat information came from becaue it does not correspond with the latest information in my posession.

My source for the five confirmed SARS cases is the U.S. CDC report issued a couple of weeks ago confirming the presence of a new coronavirus in at least four of the five "confirmed" SARS cases they checked.

I do not recall if they ever found the SARS virus in the fifth case. However, one of the problems with SARS has been the difficulty making a positive diagnosis early in the course of the disease (it is difficult to find the virus until a couple of weeks after a person has full blown symptoms, but that is too late to be useful).

As I recall, the same material is available on the New England Journal of Medicine's web site, and it is easier to find. I have not checked the NEJM web site in a week, and they may have new info.

Those are the only "confirmed" SARS cases I have seen mentioned in print in the U.S. Why more information has not been forthcoming I do not know (I may have just missed something, however).

[Lester Moore]

millions of deaths, and an unprecedented economic depression.

Millions of deaths? Holy Cow!

[blam]

Doc's Wrangle Over SARS Death Rate

[blam]

"we will see the medical system overwhelmed within weeks, millions of deaths, and an unprecedented economic depression."

Just think, the survivors could have 2-3 houses, etc. Wouldn't have to build any new houses for 75 years or so.