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To: Paradox
Oh horsefeathers, it is not capitalism, it is "let's pretend capital is free". Negative real interest rates (as glorified in the article - borrow at 12% to make goods rising 15% per year in price) do not force real investment into productive sectors, but allow anyone with the connections to get loans to keep doing whatever it is they have been doing, if not completely insane and outright destructive.

Rubles per dollar, 1994 to 2003

1994 - 2.2
1995 - 4.6
1996 - 5.1
1997 - 5.8
1998 summer - 6.3
1998 fall - 20.8
1999 - 22.3
2000 - 27.8
2001 - 28.5
2002 - 30.9
2003 - 31.2

Average ruble devaluation per year vs. USD 1994 to now - -26% per year, or dollar up 34% per year
Average consumer inflation 1998 to now - prices up 32.2% per year
Rise in dollar since 98 crash - 50% or ~9% per year
Rise in dollar from 94 to pre-crash - 186% or 26% per year

They just got a whole bunch of the real terms smash out of the way in 1998, when they defaulted on $40 billion in debt.

The last 3 years of "stability" have involved a slide of 4% per year in the value of the ruble compared to the dollar, with "growth" of 4-5%. In dollar terms their economy is going nowhere. Over the last 9 years, a ruble has lost 93% of its value - against dollars, which have themselves dropped about 20% in value compared to the consumer price index (US consumer prices in dollars have risen 25%, 2.5% per year, over the same period). Against consumer goods in the US, rubles have lost 94.4% of their value in 9 years.

Inflationists believe the secret to "growth" is "free" capital. Actual capitalism is based payments for and to capital, ensuring its most efficient use. To the inflationists, the whole point of making access to capital "free" is to gain control of resources without having to pass the test of efficiency and benefit to others from its use.

8 posted on 04/21/2003 11:35:07 AM PDT by JasonC
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To: JasonC
Actually, the Ruble has risen vs the dollar this year and that is bad. Ruble devaluation is good for Russia, makes American/EU goods to expensive to import and Russian goods very cheap and easy to export. Worked for Japan.
12 posted on 04/21/2003 2:12:47 PM PDT by RussianConservative
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