Panic grips Beijing as leaders admit tenfold rise in Sars infection rates

The Independent UK ^ | 21 April 2003 | Jasper Becker in Beijing

[Maynerd]

Beijing has more than 700 confirmed and unconfirmed cases, ten times more than initially admitted, putting it among the communities hit hardest in the world, behind only Guangdong province and Hong Kong. Even now there are doubts whether all the figures in China have been revealed.

A Chinese biological Chernobyl. Those commies never change.

[Joe Hadenuf]

Wonderful. Wonder how many are flying in tonight?

So glad I don't fly anymore.......I have no desire to be in a sealed tube, with 300 other people.

[Starrgaizr]

Sometimes the way a political machine or dictatorship responds to natural disasters causes big changes.

IIRC, it was the response to a devastating earthquake that did in the Samoza dictatorship in Nicaragua. In Chicago, the original Daley machine lost a mayoral election due to public disgust over the fumbling of the response to a blizzard. China is obviously a different order of magnitude, but if this epidemic ravages China and the world, could public outrage in China reignite a protest movement? It would be a silver lining to a very dark and growing cloud.

[goldstategop]

SARS could do more to topple Communism in China than all the protests the pro-democracy movement conducted in Tianamen Square ever did. The sacking of top officials and the cracking of Leninist official secrecy is a sign of things to come.

[Bonaparte]

"The handling of the crisis has dealt China's reputation a severe blow."

China's what?

[Drammach]

So glad I don't fly anymore.......I have no desire to be in a sealed tube, with 300 other people.

Not to mentioned the re-circulated air.

Used to be, when smoking was still allowed on air transport, fresh air was being pumped into the cabin from those little blowers to lessen the effects of smoke.
Airlines stopped doing that when they banned smoking, and the incidence of airline related transmission of illness / disease rose precipitously.
Now we have the perfect test case of the airline passenger cabin as an agent for transmission of disease.

I hope I'm wrong, but so far it doesn't look like it.

[pkust]

Tragic as SARS deaths are, the world should count its blessings that SARS is a relatively minor bug, epidemiologically speaking. Imagine the death toll and the chaos if a virus as infectious and as lethal as the 1919 influenza pandemic arose today.

[DAPFE8900]

Could this be the beginning of the plagues spoken of in the bible... And if so watch the chinese to try and infect as many countries as possible...OK GET MY TIN FOIL HAT!

[SunTzuWu]

So glad I don't fly anymore.......I have no desire to be in a sealed tube, with 300 other people.

Not to mentioned the re-circulated air. Used to be, when smoking was still allowed on air transport, fresh air was being pumped into the cabin from those little blowers to lessen the effects of smoke. Airlines stopped doing that when they banned smoking...

Airliners wern't redesigned when smoking was banned. IIRC the body of an airliner isn't airtight. Fresh air is continualy pumped in as air leaks out. The air in an airliner is completely changed every few minutes due to this action. Any pilots here want to confirm or debunk this?

[SauronOfMordor]

Tragic as SARS deaths are, the world should count its blessings that SARS is a relatively minor bug, epidemiologically speaking. Imagine the death toll and the chaos if a virus as infectious and as lethal as the 1919 influenza pandemic arose today.

Excuse me? Firday's figures show 182 deaths and 1749 recoveries, for an average worldwide death rate of 9%. In Canada, we have 12 deaths and 54 recoveries (18%). In Hong Kong 81 deaths and 363 recoveries (18%). The worldwide death rate averages are being brought down by China's official numbers, which are falsified, according to latest reports.

[Petronski]

Those commies never change...

Communists simply don't respect the
life or liberty of the individual.

[WoofDog123]

"A Chinese biological Chernobyl. Those commies never change."

In all fairness, if a u.s. biolab had something get loose, the u.s. would go to all extremes to cover up the military origin of it, though I expect they would respond to the health emergency created much more quickly. Any government would lie about an error of this magnitude, as it could topple even the most entrenched power. Government is not in the business of committing suicide, anywhere.

[WoofDog123]

"The worldwide death rate averages are being brought down by China's official numbers, which are falsified, according to latest reports.
"

I would say that any credible statistical work on SARS must exclude PRChina from their calculations, maybe putting it off to the side with an * or something explaining that no one believes them.

[blam]

"Imagine the death toll and the chaos if a virus as infectious and as lethal as the 1919 influenza pandemic arose today."

I think you've missed the boat on this one.

[js1138]

As bad as this sounds, it is nothing compred to the flu pandemic of 1918. SARS kills three percent of its victims. the flu killed upwards of 30 percent. My father, living in the back woods of Virgnia, got it. He said entire families were wiped out.

[EternalHope]

Tragic as SARS deaths are, the world should count its blessings that SARS is a relatively minor bug, epidemiologically speaking. Imagine the death toll and the chaos if a virus as infectious and as lethal as the 1919 influenza pandemic arose today.

Relatively minor bug?

Not as infectious and lethal as the Spanish Flu of 1918/19?

Everything I have seen says it is much, much WORSE than the Spanish Flu. The mortality rate is much HIGHER. Many of the people who survive have major damage. The stress to the medical system is very high, with a high hospitalization rate, a multi-week stay for typical patients, and a high proportion of patients requiring intensive care. The medical staff caring for these people is at high risk of catching SARS themselves, in spite of extreme precautions.

The big questions are how many people are naturally immune, and how contagious it is to the rest of us. Extraordinary measures are currently being taken to prevent its spread, so we do not know how fast it would spread in the general population if allowed to spread naturally.

Since SARS is a new variant of the common cold, it seems logical to assume it is about as contagious as the common cold. However, the U.S. CDC has just released their finding that it survives for at least 24 hours on hard surfaces (versus the 2-4 hours expected for a common cold virus). Hence, it may be MORE contagious than the common cold.

So, please explain how SARS is minor, and less of a threat than the Spanish flu of 1918/19?

[EternalHope]

As bad as this sounds, it is nothing compred to the flu pandemic of 1918. SARS kills three percent of its victims. the flu killed upwards of 30 percent. My father, living in the back woods of Virgnia, got it. He said entire families were wiped out.

The Spanish flu eventually infected 25% of the U.S. population, and killed 2.5% of those infected. I have seen some reports saying the mortality was zooming upwards just before it died out, but I have not seen anything confirming this.

We do not know what proportion of the population is susceptible to SARS, but we know the mortality is over 4% (lots of reasons to believe it is 9% or higher). We also know it is much harder on the medical system and leaves a trail of badly injured victims in its wake.

The big difference between SARS and the Spanish flu is that SARS has not broken out into the general population (except perhaps in China). Extraordinary measures are being taken to keep it contained, but success is not guaranteed.

[sonsofliberty2000]

Maybe it was a way for the Chinese to control population?

[xp38]

There are now 14 dead here in Toronto but the latest victim was 99 years old. Not that I wish death to any one but this 99 year old probably outlived 99% of all of us.