Posted on 04/20/2003 6:11:45 PM PDT by DeaconBenjamin
The emergency Opec meeting and US corporate earnings are the highlight of a shortened trading week, given the absence of significant economic data in the developed world and the emphasis on Iraq shifting from war to rebuilding.
US and much of the Asia-Pacific region are open for business on Monday, while European markets are closed for the Easter holiday.
Opec members gather for an emergency meeting on Thursday to discuss production cuts, although some analysts are sceptical about definitive reductions.
"I think we [are] likely to see Opec reaffirm their commitment to keep to their quotas," said Jan Stuart, an oil analyst at ABN Amro in New York.
Opec members have been concerned about the $10 fall in the oil price, although this is from post Gulf-war highs and remain near the upper end of Opec's desired $22 to $28 price range.
High energy costs have been one of the reasons for the disappointing economic data in the US and Europe during the first quarter of this year. The fall in the oil price may be one of the contributing factors to a revision upwards in the final reading of the Michigan University consumer sentiment survey.
James Knightley, an economist at ING Financial Markets, said that since the preliminary reading 10 days ago the uncertainty from the war in Iraq has lifted, oil prices have dropped and share markets have improved.
The Federal Reserve releases on Wednesday its survey of economic conditions for March, which is likely to remain in tune with previous surveys which showed that economic activity remains subdued.
Other US data this week include first-quarter gross domestic product final reading, which is expected to report a quarter-on-quarter growth of 1.8 per cent, up from the 1.4 per cent reported in the fourth quarter last year.
The UK also releases its first quarter GDP estimate on Friday, which is expected to show the economy growing at an annual rate of 2.3 per cent, versus 2.2 per cent rate in the previous quarter.
Sweden's Riksbank announces its interest-rate decision. Economists forecast the central bank to cut by 25 basis points to 3.25 per cent by mid-year.
"I think they are more likely to wait until after the ECB's next meeting," said Mr Knightley.
While Swedish rates may remain on hold, another European central bank may provide a further easing, with Poland's central bank expected to trim by a quarter point to a record low of 5.75 per cent on Thursday.
Brazil's central bank also meets this week and is expected to keep rates on hold at 26.5 per cent but change the bias to neutral from a upwards bias as inflation pressure subsides due to lower oil prices.
US corporate earnings reporting this week include 3M, Merck & Co, Sprint, Corning, eBay, Eli Lilly, Kimberly Clark, Verizon, Viacom, American Airlines, Anheuser-Busch, AOL Time Warner, AT&T, BellSouth, Eastman Kodak, Hilton Hotels, Lucent Technologies, Xerox, Aetna, Amazon.com, DaimlerChrysler, Nortel Networks, Sara Lee, SBC Communications and Starbucks.
In Japan, Nissan, Sony, Sharp, Mazda, Honda all report. In Europe there are trading updates and results from Michelin, STMicro, Infineon and Siemens.
There are shareholder meetings for BG Group, Shell Transport and Société Générale.
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