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To: David
We don't have protectionism now and deflation is becoming embeded and will become a Greater Depression in the near future.

Deflation and devaluation are two terms being tossed around alot lately, almost as if they are interchangeable. By running the fiat presses do you think the Fed. can use devaluation of the dollar to help offset deflation of prices, at least for the short term?
49 posted on 04/22/2003 5:33:48 AM PDT by steve50 (neocons, the "new coke" of conservatives)
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To: steve50; arete; NYTexan; rohry; sarcasm; hinckley buzzard; Soren; imawit; litehaus; B4Ranch; ...
"By running the fiat presses do you think the Fed. can use devaluation of the dollar to help offset deflation of prices, at least for the short term?"

This question is of course one we revisit regularly--in other versions, summarized, as--can the fed stop deflation by printing money to cause inflation instead of deflation (devaluing the dollar instead of seeing it increase in value as it would in a deflation).

The fed can do only a couple of things to influence the money supply. It can make bank reserves cheaper (the fed funds--interbank borrowing rate; or the new discount rate policy); it can buy government debt in the open market.

In fact, week before last, the fed bought some government debt and the bond market went down and interest rates went up (the opposite of what would be expected). I tend to doubt the buy government debt policy because it is so clear that will probably be counterproductive--everyone now watches open market activity.

So if the question is restricted to, can the fed, by fed monetary policy alone (facilitating more and cheaper bank lending through the reserve mechanism) cause deflation to become inflation, I think the answer is "No".

But there is still room for some uncertainty in the ultimate outcome.

Shostak's article is data in support of the proposition that the fed can't make the money supply go up and could not do so in the 30's.

However there is another money creation issue. The US Government runs deficits and borrows the money. Although those deficits seem huge, facts are in the context of the overall money supply and available investment liquidity, the deficits are tiny and such a minor interest rate adjustment they are not readily apparent in the short term.

But you could foresee that the deficits got to a point where they can't be financed in the normal money market activity and the fed had to print money to buy federal bonds. You would then foresee the outcome they got last week alright--interest rates up; dollar now selling off; gold going up. And presumably a lot of additional liquidity into the money supply. Result would be inflation not deflation.

It just isn't clear what the end result would be of Government Fiscal policy directed toward federal overspending for the purpose of causing the fed to act in the monetary markets in such a way as to cause inflation. It might happen that way. One of the principal reasons gold is going up is because of the risk (not the existing fact--as in "it will happen that way") that might be the outcome.

51 posted on 04/22/2003 7:12:13 AM PDT by David
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To: steve50
"We don't have protectionism now and deflation is becoming embeded and will become a Greater Depression in the near future. "

Careful, we had deflation in most of the late 1800s and the average growth rate was 7% (1965-1914 avg)!

Deflation and depression are 2 distinct things.

We've had technology induced deflation for years now, and it has actually helped our economy.

As for not having protectionism, ever hear of our sugar quotas? peanuts? steel tariffs? etc.


54 posted on 06/29/2003 10:06:28 AM PDT by WOSG (We liberated Iraq. Now Let's Free Cuba, North Korea, Iran, China, Tibet, Syria, ...)
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