U.S. faces repercussions if weapons are not found

Newark (red)Star Ledger ^ | 4/16/03 | JOHN HASSELL

[Incorrigible]

U.S. faces repercussions if weapons are not found

Wednesday, April 16, 2003

BY JOHN HASSELL
Star-Ledger Staff

[Newark, NJ] -- The list of banned Iraqi weapons cited as the central reason for war by President Bush was lengthy and specific: Anthrax. VX. Botulinum toxin. Nerve gas. R-400 aerial bombs.

Bush's assurances that U.S. troops will unearth these weapons of mass destruction, however, have not been borne out by searches at suspect sites in Iraq -- so far.

The dilemma for Washington, according to foreign policy analysts, is that with each passing day, the failure to produce evidence of Saddam Hussein's weapons undercuts the success of the military campaign, as well as U.S. credibility overseas.

"This was the core reason for going to war with Iraq and the reason we had to go now," said Joseph Cirincione, author of "Deadly Arsenals," a study of unconventional weapons programs worldwide.

"If we don't find fairly large stockpiles of these weapons, in quantities large enough to pose a strategic threat to the United States, then the president's credibility will be seriously undermined, and the legitimacy of the war repudiated," Cirincione said.

The consequences would be especially troubling in the Middle East, where the Bush White House hopes to implement an Israeli-Palestinian peace plan and to receive fresh cooperation from Arab states in combating terrorism.

"If these weapons are not found in Iraq, then the Arab world could come to the conclusion that the country was invaded under false pretenses and that it was not legal," said S. Azmat Hassan, a former Pakistani ambassador to Syria and Morocco.

Hassan, now a faculty associate at the John C. Whitehead School of Diplomacy and International Relations at Seton Hall University, said the ramifications of that "could have a broad effect on U.S. interests in the region."

In recent days, U.S. officials have suggested that some of Iraq's chemical and biological weapons may have been moved into Syria, and they have expressed concern that these substances might fall into the hands of terrorist groups.

Still, military leaders say they are confident that inspection teams will find the weapons they are seeking in Iraq.

"It will take time to uncover things that are deliberately hidden," U.S. Brig. Gen. Vincent Brooks said yesterday. But, he added, "We remain convinced that there are weapons of mass destruction inside Iraq and we remain unwavering about that."

Brooks said coalition forces are using special equipment to search the Iraqi desert for buried material. Entire fighter jets have been found buried for no apparent reason, he said.

So far, though, reports of chemical and biological weapons discoveries by U.S. field commanders have turned out to be false or premature.

One of the first such reports came on April 7, when media outlets quoted military officials as saying troops were looking for chemical weapons at four sites.

Reuters news agency reported that "initial investigations" at a military training camp in central Iraq "revealed levels of nerve agents sarin and tabun and the blister agent lewisite" in barrels stored there.

Later, Gen. Benjamin Freakly of the 101st Airborne said the barrels could contain "some kind of pesticides." Tests at the site, and at other sites noted in news reports, were pending, he said.

On Monday, CNN cited Freakly as the source of a report that 11 containers buried close to an artillery ammunition plant in Karbala were discovered by U.S. troops and could be dual-use chemical and biological laboratories.

Hours later, the Knight-Ridder news service reported that troops south of Kirkuk had found about a dozen 20-foot-long missiles, more than two dozen large green tanks full of an unknown substance and crates of protective chemical gear.

As of last night, the Pentagon had not confirmed the presence of chemical or biological agents at either of the locations cited in the reports.

As pressure to unearth weapons of mass destruction has mounted, U.S. officials have urged patience, saying they do not expect to make progress until they control the entire country and Iraqis no longer fear the consequences of speaking out.

In the meantime, officials have expressed hope that two prominent Iraqi scientists who surrendered in recent days will provide critical leads.

One of those scientists, Jaffar al-Jaffar, reportedly turned himself in to authorities outside Iraq Sunday and is being interviewed by U.S. intelligence agents. U.N. inspectors have called al-Jaffar the father of Iraq's nuclear weapons program.

Saddam's top science adviser, Lt. Gen. Amer al-Saadi, surrendered to U.S. forces Saturday. He has denied publicly that Iraq harbored weapons of mass destruction, but American officials are hoping he will change his story.

Without so-called "human intelligence," experts on chemical and biological weapons say it will be difficult to track whatever material does exist.

"Saddam has had 10 or 12 years to play shell games with this stuff," said Eric R. Taylor, a former captain with the U.S. Army Chemical Corps who is a professor of chemistry at the University of Louisiana. "If it's buried out in the desert somewhere, that could be pretty tough."

Certain biological agents, such as anthrax, are especially easy to store "because these are pretty hardy things and you don't need a lot of them," said Taylor, author of the 1999 book "Lethal Mists: An Introduction to the Natural and Military Sciences of Chemical and Biological Warfare and Terrorism."

Cirincione likened the hunt to a police search for illegal drugs in the United States.

"Imagine how difficult it would be to find 10 kilos of cocaine in New York City," he said. "It would be much the same trying to find 10 canisters of anthrax in Baghdad."

The problem for the Bush administration, Cirincione said, is that U.S. officials have accused Saddam's regime of hoarding "several hundred tons" of illicit chemical and biological weapons -- not just 10 canisters.

"It's hard to believe that a convoy of trucks large enough to carry hundreds of tons of these agents across Iraq's highways could travel very far without being seen and targeted by American forces," Cirincione said. "A few trucks? Maybe. Hundreds? Not a chance."

In the end, Cirincione said, it will come as a surprise to a lot of people -- him included -- if U.S. troops do not find hidden weapons caches.

"We have all assumed, based on documented evidence of past activity, that these things existed," he said.

But if they don't turn up soon, he said, "a lot of people in Washington are going to start getting very nervous."

Not for commercial use.  For educational and discussion purposes only.

[Incorrigible]

The Newark (red)Star Ledger once again goes out of it's way to find the hand-wringers and give them a forum.  Another example of editorial as news.

Other examples:

Victory won't guarantee re-election -- Bush's popularity can be perishable

Symbol blurs the U.S. mission -- US flag on statue hinted at occupation, not liberation

 

[GingisK]

I'd be looking in Syria for Saddam's stuff.

[Just mythoughts]

Mr. Hassell might consider, if we have evidence that WMD's went to other countries, by his own standard it demands that we go to those countries and collect them.

[Diogenesis]

========= IRAQI MISSILES AND WMD =========

========= Chemical Warhead found in Kirkuk =============

Chemical warhead at an Iraqi air base, marked with a green band,
the symbol for chemical weaponry. Trace amounts of a nerve agent was found
in two spots on the ~meter long warhead. The amounts could be consistent with
leakage from a chemically armed weapon. A 13-foot missile was found next
to it.

---

In Kerbala, found in a military training camp are
banned chemical agents similar to pesticides.
Initial investigations reveal sarin and tabun and the blister agent lewisite.
Non. Mais non? Could that be French on the containers?

---

========= IRAQI MISSILES [So many missed by the Klowns) =========

In central Baghdad, Iraqi missiles are found everywhere.

---

Near Baghdad, US military found and tows an Iraqi missile.

---

Near Baghdad, at a weapons development facility, another Iraqi missile.

---

In Baghdad, captured Iraqi Scud missiles at the the University of Baghdad.

---

In and near Baghdad, more abandoned trailors loaded with Iraqi al-Samoud 2 missiles.

---

In Kerbala, even more Iraqi missiles found.

---

[3AngelaD]

And those repurcussions would be what? Islamic radicals wouldn't like us? We wouldn't get invited to France's birthday party? And my favorite: the President's credibility among American-hating university parasites would be reduced? Where does this bird-cage liner find such intellectual power?

[vin-one]

U.S. faces repercussions if weapons are not found

From whom.......

by the way what about all the other violations, Let's not forget those.
Let's also not forget the Irag people dancing in the streets.
This guy needed to go, and the U.S. was just the country to make it happen.....

[BlueLancer]

"This guy needed to go, and the U.S. was just the country to make it happen....."

We've got to take these bastards.
Now, we could fight 'em with conventional weapons,
But that could take years and cost millions of lives.
No, in this case, I think we have to go all out.
I think this situation absolutely requires
that a futile and stupid gesture be done on somebody's part."
"And we're just the guys to do it."
(Courtesy of "Animal House")

[vin-one]

was it over when the Germans Bombed Pearl Harbor,
NO,
Let's do it.

[JohnGalt]

You demonstrate the issue in your post.

The war began on conservative principals a year ago, but morphed into a war on Wilsonian principals.

[Kevin Curry]

"If we don't find fairly large stockpiles of these weapons, in quantities large enough to pose a strategic threat to the United States, then the president's credibility will be seriously undermined, and the legitimacy of the war repudiated," Cirincione said.

Only among those who already despise him and have no faith in the Iraqi operation. This is no loss.

Saddam had twelve years to hide his stuff deep. And it is already a matter of record that he ordered mass executions of the person who helped to hide it. We've bombed many of the rest. It will take time and painstaking effor to find the stuff--and a lot of it will never be found.

[Tallguy]

The ground forces still switching gears from combat operations, and all the media can do is b*tch. First is was about the looting. Now that the looting is beginning to subside, they are complaining about not having found WMD's.

Securing the WMD's is going to take more resources & more intel than are presently on hand. Even so, the frontline troops have discovered & sealed several promising sites.

Oh, and if some infantryman or tanker should come down with some symptoms akin to Gulf War Syndrome, these same reporters will be accusing the military brass of carelessness in not allowing the "experts" to come in to deal with these sites.

[browardchad]

A sure sign we are switching to the next phase of the war: "The WMD Quagmire."

It must be frustrating not to be able to work Vietnam in there somewhere....

[Eric in the Ozarks]

I have to agree with the story's premise. We'd better find something more than missiles. It is interesting that they went to the trouble of burying entire MiG fighter planes...

[cloud8]

"From whom......."

Exactly what I wondered when I read the article's headline. Apparently the U.S. will face repercussions from Joseph Cirincione, author of "Deadly Arsenals," and from S. Azmat Hassan, a former Pakistani ambassador to Syria and Morocco. So what? Even the Euro-trash is coming around to admitting the war wasn't such a bad idea after all.

[apillar]

Total BS....

The American people are so happy to see that the war was won with a minimum loss of life and in such a short amount of time and that the Iraqi people are now free, that they won't care a whit if Chemical Weapons are found or not.

The only ones that will try to make hay over it are the anti-war liberals and the French, normal Americans don't give a darn about what they say anyway

[bobsatwork]

"We'd better find something more than missiles.."
Don't worry. We will. There was a remarkable breakfast meeting involving Tony Blair and most European leaders. It happened just after Powell gave his pitch to the UN, and everyone was talking about "did he make his case" on WMDs. At this meeting Blair said (this is a paraphrase) "Everyone in this room knows, from their own intelligence groups, that Saddam has these weapons". The room went silent.

[Bloody Sam Roberts]

"If we don't find fairly large stockpiles of these weapons, in quantities large enough to pose a strategic threat to the United States, then the president's credibility will be seriously undermined, and the legitimacy of the war repudiated," Cirincione said.

Harumph. Tell that to the Iraqis who were forced to watch their families tortured and killed. Think they give a fat rat's bladder about VX, Anthrax or R-400 aerial bombs?

[skeeter]

The media has been hurt by this war, and their looking for payback.

It won't matter how much evidence is found... unless US soldiers find a wharehouse full of barrels with DANGER: WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION stenciled on them the media will claim the war was waged for phony reasons.

[sr4402]

What part of FOUND WITH MORE EVIDENCE TO COME don't they understand.

Another liberal paper gets to EAT CROW

[templar]

I have to agree with the story's premise. We'd better find something more than missiles.

I tend to agree with you. We stressed WMD's way too much, IMO, as the reason to attack. Now we gotta produce them or we have credibility problems. The problem isn't so much that anyone could actually be a threat to our domestic or military security (they can't), even if the Islamic societies were smart enough to form a defensive alliance against us (which they aren't), it's the lack of cooperatiohn we may end up experiencing in the future on other matters vital to our economy and such. And, of course, Israel is a factor here somewhere, since we seem to think we can solve the Palestinian problem.