Posted on 04/15/2003 10:16:00 AM PDT by knighthawk
WITH the successful campaign by the US and its allies to remove Saddam Hussein from power in Iraq concluding, the temptation for the Americans to move against Syria is strong.
The Government of Syria is a protector of terrorism, and, with Iran, can pose a real threat to the stabilisation of post-war Iraq. But despite this, it is clear the Americans have no intention of widening the conflict. Secretary of State Colin Powell says the US has no ground plan for military action and it is beginning to withdraw its massive air power. At this stage the Americans do not need to contemplate the use of force. The sheer spectacle of the military might deployed against Iraq makes it clear that no nation in the region can defy the US in conventional combat. But while Syria in particular is not named by US officials as part of the "axis of evil", it can hardly claim immunity from the charge, given its overt support for the departed dictator.
Syria has also controlled its neighbour, Lebanon, since 1976, and facilitates the training of terrorists in their ancient Bekaa valley stronghold. The US also alleges that Syria possesses chemical weapons. Of course, Syria denies its involvement in terrorism, in spite of the intelligence that identifies known terrorist groups within its borders. These range from the Hezbollah to Islamic Jihad, Hamas, al-Qa'ida and Ansar al-Islam. Such deadly organisations have politicised religion and made hopes for a peace settlement between Israel and a future Palestine ever more difficult.
There are also ample reasons for the US to be concerned by Syria's recent overt threats against Israel. Of course, the region is brimming with complications. Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, in speaking on a radical "land for peace" deal as part of a settlement with the Palestinians, has aroused much alarm. Yasser Arafat's refusal to accept a more moderate cabinet has equally disturbed many Palestinians.
But US President George W. Bush appears determined to broker a resolution of the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians and this will require stability in the rest of the Middle East. This is why Syria is a crucial player, both for its continuing attitude to Israel and also in the way it responds to the new Iraq and why the US administration is explicit that it will hold Syria accountable for any attempts to destabilise the region. Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld has called Syria's harbouring of senior members of Hussein's regime "hostile acts", and Mr Powell has advised Syria to "move in a new direction". The US and its allies are committed to democratic change for the region and have shown the Arab world that their promises are more than mere words. A revitalised Iraq, establishing democratic norms, will become the virtual stalking horse for totalitarian regimes in the region.
This may alarm the Syrians but short of confronting the US by overtly sponsoring terror attacks, there is not a great deal they can do about it in the immediate term. Damascus will now be carefully considering whether there is anything still to be gained by helping any of Hussein's associates who want to fight on from exile. Western-educated Bashar al-Assad, who leads a family succession of dictatorship in Syria will now experience the constant pressure of US demands. To continue the export of terrorism or to finance guerilla warfare inside Iraq would require a more mercurial personality than Mr al-Assad appears to be. In spite of resolute support for Hussein in the past, the Syrian President has shown a more modern approach to many of his nation's problems and he will be unlikely to push his luck by baiting the Americans and defying their requests. These will focus on sealing his borders against the flight of Iraqi fugitives, and a cessation of the supplying of weapons, technology and expertise to residual Iraqi resisters. A quiescent Syria, particularly if joined by Iran, delighted to see the end of the Iraqi dictator, means the new Iraq may be left in peace to rebuild. This could lead to an entirely new ingredient in Middle East affairs which will chill the souls of all authoritarian regimes in the region: a viable Iraqi democracy.
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