Click The Logo To Donate
Posted on 04/12/2003 5:11:29 AM PDT by Oldeconomybuyer
AS SAYLIYA CAMP, Qatar, April 12 (Reuters) - The ferocity of what could be Saddam Hussein's last stand, the battle for Tikrit, will hinge on whether years of favoured treatment make the people of his hometown stand by him to the end.
"These are Saddam's tribe. They may decide to go down with the ship because they know if they surrender they may not be treated kindly," said Larry Korb, a former U.S. assistant defence secretary.
With the collapse of Saddam's government in Baghdad and the surrender without a fight by his forces in Mosul, all eyes -- and not a few guns -- are now turned on Tikrit, a town of 200,000 people 175 km (110 miles) north of the capital.
U.S.-led forces have been bombarding Tikrit for weeks, hammering away at what are thought to be among the strongest Republican Guard positions yet seen in Iraq.
Bruno Tertrais, senior fellow at the Paris-based Foundation for Strategic Research, said the last battle of the war could be difficult. "(It) may be a semi-suicidal act by the last defenders of the Iraqi regime."
Michael Clarke, director of the International Policy Institute at King's College in London, said Tikrit may have been reinforced by troops that have disappeared from other cities, including Baghdad.
"Iraq has 50,000 troops there and maybe more -- though it's not clear how many would fight," Clarke said. "It has the Adnan Division (10,000-15,000) there which so far hasn't entered the fighting. You can add to that the normal garrison troops and the special security service that (Saddam's son) Uday controlled."
NO HURRY
U.S. and British officials say they are in no hurry to launch a ground assault on Tikrit.
"Obviously we've had our campaign for Tikrit going on for some time, striking regime and military targets from the air," Group Captain Al Lockwood, spokesman for British forces at war headquarters in Qatar, told Reuters on Saturday.
"The land campaign, when it comes, will be done on a timescale which fits our plan," he said. "We will move when we're ready."
That could mean waiting for reinforcements.
Elements of the U.S. 4th Infantry Division have just started moving into Iraq from Kuwait, after being diverted there when Turkey denied permission for U.S. troops to launch a northern front from its territory. Analysts say the 30,000-strong force could be the backbone of an assault on Tikrit.
"Before we would move in we would keep bombing as we have done, so they're not going to have much wherewithal to fight," Korb said, adding that the 4th division, in contrast, had the most modern tanks and equipment to bring to the fight.
IS SADDAM THERE?
Saddam's concentration of power in the hands of his closest family, and distrust of most people outside his own Albu Nasir tribe, mean that Tikritis form the backbone of his most loyal military forces.
Hospitals, schools and a university have all been built in the former farming and trading town.
Tikrit's attitude to the fight may hang on whether or not Saddam himself is there. It is not clear whether he survived at least two direct air strikes since the start of the three-week-old war.
Even if he did, any escape to Tikrit would have been difficult because U.S. special forces have controlled the main road from Baghdad for some time.
"The first element of the strategy is to get reinforcements up there as quickly as possible," Clarke said. "The second element is clearly psychological operations again. What they are saying to the fighters in Tikrit is the game is up.
"The third element of the operation is the Americans knew they had to get special forces in because they guessed, probably accurately, that there are senior Baathist Party members there, possibly Saddam and his family and possibly major elements of the weapons programme dispersed amongst the faithful in Tikrit.
"I think the coalition are assuming they may have to do this the hard way...but they are hoping squeezing them hard might put that off."
Tribalism. Such a primitive concept. I wonder how we can ever expect primitives with such a mindset to embrace democracy.
I was wondering why they were driving amphibous assault vehicles (vs Bradlies and Abrams) so far. And then it struck me, "Duh! Rivers!"
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.