Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Possible Plutonium Find Has Wide and Disturbing Implications
STRATFOR ^ | Apr 10, 2003

Posted on 04/10/2003 5:19:05 PM PDT by Axion

Possible Plutonium Find Has Wide and Disturbing Implications
Apr 10, 2003 - 2202 GMT

Summary

Initial reports from coalition forces at Iraq's Al Tuwaitha nuclear complex indicate the presence of weapons-grade plutonium. If this is truly the case, and tests should confirm the plutonium's presence very shortly, the finding will have disturbing ramifications for the region and American foreign policy.

Analysis

Coalition forces searching the Al Tuwaitha nuclear complex just south of Baghdad on April 10 have detected a type of radiation that could signal the presence of weapons-grade plutonium.

One of two materials is used to fuel nuclear explosions: uranium or plutonium.

The initial indications from Al Tuwaitha indicate the presence of plutonium-239. If true, this is worrying on numerous fronts. Uranium is far more abundant than plutonium and methods to separate, purify and mold weapons-grade uranium are not particularly technically advanced or expensive. Plutonium manufacture and purification, in contrast, is one of the most advanced weapon-fabrication processes. Plutonium weapons also require far less material -- as little as 5 kilograms -- and so plutonium weapons can use a wider array of lighter delivery vehicles. Unlike uranium, plutonium does not occur naturally in any form.

Using radiation detectors to determine the difference between uranium products and plutonium products without taking samples is a sketchy business, but there is one relatively clear difference. When plutonium-239 decays naturally it emits almost exclusively alpha particles, or positively charged helium nuclei. Uranium isotopes, on the other hand, emit beta particles (electrons) and gamma rays along with alpha radiation.

Alpha radiation normally cannot penetrate clothes and skin, whereas beta and gamma radiation certainly can. Initial reports from Al Tuwaitha indicate very high levels of radiation, yet there have been no reported casualties. That indicates that most of the radiation is probably not beta or gamma radiation, but alpha radiation, plutonium-239's calling card. Since the people who discovered the radiation at Al Tuwaitha have reported no health problems, the plutonium is most likely purified -- and therefore usable in a weapons program.

This has some disturbing implications.

No isotope of plutonium occurs naturally. In fact, it is normally created in only one of two ways. The first method involves bombarding a sample of uranium-238 with neutrons to make plutonium-239. In the second method, a uranium reactor creates the plutonium as a byproduct.

Unlike uranium enrichment programs required to make uranium-based nuclear weapons, plutonium enrichment and purification is an expensive and technically advanced process involving quite a bit of sophisticated equipment that supposedly is under a series of strict international controls.

If Iraq has obtained the equipment to manufacture or extract plutonium, it must either have some quite complex -- and highly restricted -- technology or a functioning nuclear reactor.

Such a confirmation would signal a colossal failure not only of the United Nations sanctions regime as relates to Iraq's weapons of mass destruction, but also of the broader global efforts to stem the spread of nuclear technology. The new fear would be that if Iraq, clearly on the to-watch list, can import nuclear materials and advanced nuclear technology, so can other nuclear wannabes.

It also means that United States will hardly want to depend upon the United Nations or the International Atomic Energy Agency for global nuclear security, for if it cannot prevent proliferation in the relatively cut-and-dried case of Iraq, it will be next to useless in cases where the subject has more international standing.


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: illegalweapons; iraq; iraqifreedom; nukes; plutonium; warlist; wmd
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-6061-8081-82 next last
To: myself6
Check out a search from the Encarta Encylopedia, (online).
61 posted on 04/10/2003 11:58:13 PM PDT by Fredsterman
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: Cachelot
Remember the container ship flap?

Speaking of ships, What happened to those three ships supposedley circling in the Indian Ocean? Does anyone know what happened to those?

62 posted on 04/11/2003 12:17:22 AM PDT by antaresequity
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 17 | View Replies]

To: MadIvan
the hippies of San Francisco, are going to look unbelievably stupid.
63 posted on 04/11/2003 12:19:55 AM PDT by antaresequity
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 35 | View Replies]

To: Axion
There are further reports tonight that Cobalt 60 has been found.
This would be used to manufacture a dirty bomb.
64 posted on 04/11/2003 12:19:57 AM PDT by Allan
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Allan
Where did you hear about Cobalt 60?
65 posted on 04/11/2003 12:21:23 AM PDT by LPStar
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 64 | View Replies]

To: Don Carlos
and (2) Thermo-nuclear explosion (what used to be referred to as H-bomb) results from plutonium

This is only true if the device has a fusion stage (for example, lithium-6 deuteride, in which fusion would occur after being "ignited" by the plutonium fission device; there are other ways to do it as well, but they all involve fusion of light isotopes like deuterium or tritium rather than fission of heavy elements like uranium or plutonium).

66 posted on 04/11/2003 12:31:59 AM PDT by Technogeeb
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 45 | View Replies]

To: LPStar
Clark Staten of Emergency.com and John Loftus.
67 posted on 04/11/2003 12:36:28 AM PDT by Allan
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 65 | View Replies]

To: Beck_isright
Smuggling this into the U.S. would not be difficult with such stalwart allies as Mexico.(sarcasm off)

Why bother even taking the risk of detection in Mexico and running a border???????

All you need is a 40'-50' sailboat...its that simple

Despite all the effort of 'homeland' security...sailing a boat into any port on our coast is typically without challenge...

Take for instance the number of small sailboats routinley crossing the Atlantic via Bermuda and the Mediteranean...

Rarely if ever checked.

Sail right into New York Harbour any day of the week. If someone wanted me to deliver a 'package' to New York...I could have it here within 4-8 weeks from the Eastern Med...piece of cake

68 posted on 04/11/2003 12:55:11 AM PDT by antaresequity
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 40 | View Replies]

To: Beck_isright
What about the plant in Brazil?

Hmmm...makes you wonder

Iraqi Embassy in Brazil Burns Documents

69 posted on 04/11/2003 1:00:15 AM PDT by antaresequity
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 43 | View Replies]

To: Axion
Using radiation detectors to determine the difference between uranium products and plutonium products without taking samples is a sketchy business...

Not true. Each isotope decays via a specific mechanism with specific energy levels - just like a fingerprint. With the proper equipment (not hand-held devices), the isotope can be positively identified.

70 posted on 04/11/2003 3:32:56 AM PDT by snopercod
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: walden
It reads to me like it was written by someone who wanted to write about this topic, didn't know anything about nuclear processes, went out on the internet, and crammed.

For example, he says that there are two ways of making Pu-239: neutron bombardment and in a reactor where it is made as a byproduct. What happens in a reactor? Neutron bombardment.

He contends that unlike uranium enrichment, plutonium purification is a difficult and more expensive process. That is not true. It is more expensive and difficult to fashion the purified plutonium into a functioning fissile device, but the purification process (which for plutonium is not, as he calls it, an enrichment process) is easier than uranium enrichment-- you don't have to do any isotope separation. So why is it more expensive to make Pu-239 than U-238? Because you make Pu-239 from U-238; you have to purify the uranium and then separate it into its different isotopes just to get to your 'starting point'. If Saddam wanted to make some nukes, it wouldn't be a matter of choosing between Pu based weapons or U based weapons on the matter of the cost- in order to make Pu he would need all the processes to make enriched uranium as part of the deal.

I don't see anything completely wrong in a way that matters other than the idea that no one getting sick yet means only alpha emitters are present. Just a bunch of things that are somewhat wrong and show the author doesn't really know of what he writes.

71 posted on 04/11/2003 3:39:52 AM PDT by William McKinley (You're so vain, you probably think this tagline's about you)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 51 | View Replies]

To: William McKinley
Thank you!
72 posted on 04/11/2003 5:26:48 AM PDT by walden
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 71 | View Replies]

To: Allan
There are further reports tonight that Cobalt 60 has been found. This would be used to manufacture a dirty bomb.

I heard that on Batchelor and Alexander.

73 posted on 04/11/2003 5:33:36 AM PDT by aristeides
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 64 | View Replies]

To: William McKinley
You sound knowledgable about this so I can ask you this question:

In a bomb U-235 or Plutonium fissions because the nucleus gets hit with a neutron, right? Then it emits more neutrons, which hit other nuclei, etc.

How come sometimes the neutron changes the Uranium to Plutonium and sometimes it causes fission?
74 posted on 04/11/2003 5:50:59 AM PDT by ko_kyi
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 71 | View Replies]

To: antaresequity
Speaking of ships, What happened to those three ships supposedley circling in the Indian Ocean? Does anyone know what happened to those?

I read that all those ships are belong to us. Whatever they had was not earth shaking.

75 posted on 04/11/2003 5:54:30 AM PDT by js1138
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 62 | View Replies]

To: livius
Great phrase! May I use it for a tag, pretty please?

Feel (or perhaps Felix) free.

76 posted on 04/11/2003 6:31:10 AM PDT by Grut
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 39 | View Replies]

To: ko_kyi
I apologize for not knowing how much you know or don't know. If some of this is below you, it isn't by design. And if it's all above you, let me know and I'll try to get simpler.

Different elements can have different isotopes-- the same element but with a different number of neutrons in the nucleus. U-235 and U-238 are both Uranium, but they are different isotopes of uranium.

Fission is the process where an unstable isotope's nucleus breaks apart. There are not many isotopes of any sort that undergo fission. U-235, U-233, P-239 are examples. When the nucleus of a fissionable isotope disintegrates, you will end up with atoms of completely different elements, free neutrons, and lots of energy (mass converted into energy by E=MC^2).

The fissionable isotopes I mentioned above are the ones which undergo fission upon neutron bombardment- as such the neutrons released from the fission can feed more fission in what is known as a chain reaction, which occurs when there is enough of the material present in a small area as is needed to sustain the reaction. This is known as critical mass. Thorium-232 is another fissionable isotope (its nucleus will break apart) but unlike the others, neutron bombardment will not cause the fission. It just happens over time.

Some non-fissionable isotopes (and it is not limited to the elements listed above), when bombarded by neutrons, will change. U-238, for example, when bombarded with neutrons, may accept a neutron to become U-239, which is itself an unstable isotope that is a beta emitter with a pretty short half life. When an atom emits a beta particle, it can be thought of as a neutron in the nucleus becoming a proton and an electron, with the electron being expelled (the beta particle). The new proton causes the atomic number of the atom to increase (atomic number merely being the number of protons in the nucleus-- which says what element it is), and as such what happens is that the U-239 becomes Pu-239.

77 posted on 04/11/2003 6:40:13 AM PDT by William McKinley (You're so vain, you probably think this tagline's about you)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 74 | View Replies]

To: William McKinley
So if I am reading you correctly a nuclear reactor can have a mix of U-235, which fissions and keeps the reaction going, and U-238 which bit by bit becomes plutonium which can be isolated later and made into a bomb.

I had always thought the U-238 fissioned as well.
78 posted on 04/11/2003 6:45:11 AM PDT by ko_kyi
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 77 | View Replies]

To: edwin hubble; thinden; Fred Mertz; honway; JudgeAmint
"Nuclear blackmail against Kuwait, Israel, Saudi Arabia, etc. We would be right where we are now with N. Korea."

Worse. Consider: Hussein has already provided training, financing, weapons, and other support for terrorist groups ranging from Hamas to Al Qaeda. Why not nukes, too?

If this story is valid, we can only hope that we've nipped this in the bud, and that there are no completed products floating around anywhere. I can't even type what I think of the U.N. and their weapons inspection protection program. It would get me banned for obscenity.

79 posted on 04/11/2003 6:47:20 AM PDT by MizSterious ("The truth takes only seconds to tell."--Jack Straw)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 37 | View Replies]

To: Axion
Is the plutonium stamped "Fabrique au Republique Francais?"
80 posted on 04/11/2003 6:50:42 AM PDT by CholeraJoe (Standing tough under Stars and Stripes)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-6061-8081-82 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson