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Posted on 04/08/2003 6:07:24 PM PDT by Indy Pendance
CHICAGO, April 8 (UPI) -- The Great Lakes states will look more like parts of the South and Southwest by the end of the century as a result of global warming, a report released Tuesday concludes.
The changes will lead to hot, dry summers and severe flooding in the winter and spring, the report, by the Union of Concerned Scientists and the Ecological Society of America, predicts.
"This is the most comprehensive assessment on global warming and the impact on the Great Lakes ever done," said Dr. Peter Frumhoff of the Union of Concerned Scientists.
The report forecasts within three decades summer in Illinois could feel more like Oklahoma and, by the end of the century, like eastern Texas. Toronto's climate will first begin to resemble New York and then warm until it is more akin to northern Virginia's.
Regionally, temperatures could increase as much as 18 degrees Fahrenheit in summer and 13 in winter. The result will be a longer growing season for farmers but 20 percent less soil moisture with attendant erosion, reduced yields and other problems.
"We may think we'll be able to take advantage of the warmer temperatures by going to the beach but the lake levels will be lower and there will be more beach closures," said Michelle Wander, a soil scientist at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.
Donald Wuebbles, head of the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at U. of I., discounted a recent Smithsonian Institution study that found temperatures were warmer during the Middle Ages in Europe than they are now, saying the scientists involved had not fully analyzed the data.
Wuebbles said looking at core ice and soil samples going back 1,000 years, there's no question the climate globally is warmer now than in any previous era.
"We are conducting the largest experiment in human history ... (by) increasing the concentration of carbon dioxide and other (greenhouse) gases," Wuebbles said. The action, he said, will not only have an impact on the climate but on human health as well.
The scientists are calling for a reduction in emissions of heat-trapping gases, minimization of pressures on ecosystems and planning for the impact of climatological changes. They also are pushing increased use of renewable energy sources including wind power and biomass to help reverse the increases.
Thirteen states -- Maine, Massachusetts, Connecticut, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Texas, Nevada, California, New Mexico and Arizona -- already have adopted measures specifying goals for renewable energy production. Four others -- Illinois, Vermont, Maryland and New York -- are considering similar legislation.
"Waiting 10 or more years to reduce emissions will increase the eventual severity, expense and likelihood of irreversible losses -- a terrible legacy to leave our children and grandchildren," Frumhoff, director of the Global Environment Program. "By acting now, leaders and citizens can protect the rich natural heritage, vibrant economy and well-being of people and communities throughout the Great Lakes region."
The two-year study, "Confronting Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region: Impacts on our Communities and Ecosystems," was conducted by 13 scientists from universities in Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Toronto, using advanced models of the Earth's climate system. The study was presented at news conferences in Chicago, Detroit, Minneapolis, Milwaukee, Toronto and Madison, Wis.
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And therein lies Wuebbles problems; from the time of about 1100 AD to 1850 AD was a period of time called the "Little Ice Age" where average temperatures were below what they are now. From 1850 to 1940 average temperatures rose significantly. After 1940 they fell a little again.
At this juncture it seems the Wuebbles may have a point since temperature rises seem to coincide with human industrial activity.
But if you go back another 1,000 years, as a yet to be released Harvard study did, you find that temperatures were well above what the are now. This was a period of time called the "Medieval Maximum" where warmer temperatures allow migrations to areas of the world that had no previous settlements such as Iceland and Greenland.
All Wuebbles has done is restate what is already known; Climate patterns on earth are variable over time.
As to the Great lakes CO2 Science Magazine Stated - With respect to the Great Lakes of North America, Larson and Schaetzl (2001) present graphs of lake level fluctuations for the period 1915 to 1998, where it can be seen that the lowest levels occurred at about 1926 for Lake Superior, 1962 for Lake Huron-Michigan, 1933 for Lake Erie, and 1934 for Lake Ontario. It is also noteworthy that the longest sustained period of high lake levels for all of the Great Lakes occurred over the last 30 years. In addition, lake levels at the end of the record are essentially the same as those at the beginning of the record. Hence, over what climate alarmists claim to be the century that has exhibited the greatest warming of the entire past millennium, which according to them should result in dire consequences for just about everything, there has been no net change in the water level of any of the Great Lakes. In fact, over the past two decades of what they typically refer to as unprecedented warming, the four lakes have exhibited their greatest stability.
This on the heals of ten posts this last week stating the the earth was warmer in the middle-ages than it is today.
For example, here.
Can Global Warming Trigger a ‘Little Ice Age?’
"Global warming could actually lead to a big chill in some parts of the world. If the atmosphere continues to warm, it could soon trigger a dramatic and abrupt cooling throughout the North Atlantic region—where, not incidentally, some 60 percent of the world’s economy is based.
When I say “dramatic,” I mean: Average winter temperatures could drop by 5 degrees Fahrenheit over much of the United States, and by 10 degrees in the northeastern United States and in Europe. That’s enough to send mountain glaciers advancing down from the Alps. To freeze rivers and harbors and bind North Atlantic shipping lanes in ice. To disrupt the operation of ground and air transportation. To cause energy needs to soar exponentially. To force wholesale changes in agricultural practices and fisheries. To change the way we feed our populations. In short, the world, and the world economy, would be drastically different."
Global Warming? Why the F**K is it SNOWING in April here then and the temps are 20 degrees colder.
We are swimming in other places. This stuff is mostly cyclical but some changes are pemanent and due to gradual orbital and axis changes.
We will just have to live with it. As we know, deserts and marshes have moved before, and it was not due to anything that people did or animal farts.
I'll believe it when I see dead Armadillos on the roads of the Upper Peninsula of MI.
Write the President About the Iraq War
The international community has the responsibility to stop Iraq from acquiring or developing weapons of mass destruction. However, the US-led invasion is the wrong approach, as it undermines UN authority and weakens international non-proliferation efforts. Tell President Bush that you oppose the US invasion of Iraq and support a UN-mandated non-proliferation regime rooted in international law.
If the UCS is as correct about Global Warming as it was about the Iraq war, then the Great Lakes will runneth over for foreseeable eons. The UCS is the lefty scientists chapter of the Commie libs. Funny, that the article didn't mention that.
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