Posted on 04/05/2003 4:47:04 PM PST by hope
Analysis: Iraqi forces are crumbling
Exiled Iraqi Army officers and Israeli experts barely raised an eyebrow at the relative ease with which coalition forces gained a choke hold on the Iraqi capital of Baghdad Saturday.
Following a 3rd Infantry Patrol into the what was dubbed "the heart of Baghdad," air force Capt. Dani Burrows told reporters at central command in Qatar that Baghdad is "pretty much cut off in all directions."
"Forget what they tell you, no one in Iraq is wiling to die for Saddam. The Iraqi people are tired," Salam A., an exiled Iraqi Colonel told the Jerusalem Post over the weekend in Amman.
So dismal is Iraqi morale to fight that since 1980 a vast network of death squads was instituted to pull "non-motivated soldiers," from the lines, said Salam. The squads sole task is the public execution of soldiers. To drive their point home, the death squads, headed by Saddam s son Qusay Hussein, have also been known to kill entire families and demolish their homes for the "pacifism" of their sons, said Salam.
Iraq expert Professor Amatzia Baram of Haifa University, believes that Hussein is so mistrustful of his forces that he was wiling to sacrifice the crack Republican Guards Media armored division to American tanks and Apaches rather than redeploy them to Baghdad. A merciless pounding from over eight kilometers away decimated the Media division 80 kilometers from Baghdad near the holy city of Karbala.
"The Medina division stood its position for almost ten days," said Baram. Logic would dictate that Hussein would prefer to spare them for an apocalyptic battle in and around his Baghdad bunkers, but "Saddam s logic is different," said Baram.
"None of his divisions stand a chance against American gunships, he knows this." But the Iraqi leader was wary of ordering his crack troops to Baghdad, lest they turn their guns and attack him. "He sacrificed his best panzer division to for no reason save for his paranoia," said Baram The much-anticipated collapse of Saddam Hussein's house of cards might have begun. Three of Saddam Hussein s close aides were executed late last week, accused of divulging intelligence to American forces, UPI reported.
Despite the apparent disintegration of Iraqi opposition, the fighting is not yet over. That 1000 Iraqi soldiers were killed in a fierce two-hour gunbattle for the newly christened "Baghdad International Airport," indicates that while the Republican Guards have crumbled before coalition forces, the Special Iraqi Guards must not be forgotten.
According to Baram there remain thousands of fighters for whom there is no alternative but to fight. The Special Republican Guards and the Fedayeen know well that surrender could mean facing a coalition forces hanging judge, said Baram.
Other experts caution against undue exuberance. Col (res.) Shimon Boyorsky, formerly head of the Iraq desk in IDF intelligence downplayed the US foray into Baghdad, calling it "at best a draw." US troops might have proved they can slice into Baghdad at will, but these surgical operations came at a high cost of two Abrams tanks.
Boyorsky reckons Baghdad will not fall easily, and that the destruction of the two US tanks could herald a bloody welcome for troops. As Iraqi Information Minister Mohammed Saeed al-Sahaf vowed Friday, the regime will use every weapon in its possession even "martyrs," to slow the US advance.
Boyorksy expects the Republican Guards and the various Saddam-supporting militia to put up a hard fight in the coming days, These martyrs, according to Col. Salam, will not be Iraqi. "Only the Palestinians are willing to die for Saddam," he said bitterly. Reports from Baghdad indicate that much of the opposition confronted by coalition forces came "Arab fighters from abroad." However, unlike western sources, Col. Salam is almost certain that Saddam Hussein might use chemical weapons on US forces in Iraq. As if to verify his conjecture, three Iraqi diplomats were arrested and expelled from Jordan last week after they attempted to poison wells that provide water to Jordanian and US bases in Jordan s expansive eastern desert.
Jordanian Authorities have yet to reveal what type of poison or biological weapons the Iraqi s had intended to use. However some Jordanians believe it might have been a much under-publicized opening shot in Iraq s use of non-conventional weapons.
"He has done it before, against his own people, why should he not use it against invaders," reasoned Salam.
Iraq might target US troops with non-conventional weapons, but it Israel will remain out of Saddam s missile loop this time. "There are still several Al-Hussein missiles [capable of reaching Israel] which remain unaccounted for. But if Saddam uses them he ll do it against Kuwait, the country that brought all the American misery upon his head."
This article can also be read at http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=JPost/A/JPArticle/ShowFull&cid=1049509369754
Saddam has a problem then!
Martin Sheen?
Good Lord - is that why he sent those poor SOBs south in the open? I hope they do get their hands on him before we do.
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