Posted on 04/05/2003 4:23:50 PM PST by blam
Iraqi defence evaporates as US push wins minds and ground Analysis
By Chris Bellamy
06 April 2003
The war in Iraq suddenly moved faster than anyone expected yesterday, as strong US columns pushed fast, far and aggressively towards the centre of Baghdad. Whatever you think of the political machinations behind this war and the spin so far, it is hard to deny that yesterday the US military were doing what they do best extremely well.
This was, in US and British military parlance, "reconnaissance in force", or even more. In Russian, razvedka boyem – "reconnaissance by battle". The US may have learnt from earlier experiences in this war, and certainly from Mogadishu in 1993. If you send in reconnaissance and it gets into trouble, then it has to be strong enough to look after itself. But more than that, the US columns were operating as classic "mobile groups", not only penetrating the enemy's military structure but unnerving, and therefore unhinging, its high military and even political command.
Military history has many examples which show that Cossack cavalry – or US tanks – appearing on your doorstep may be bad for your nerves, as well as your physical health. This is "effects-based warfare", where the psychology is as important as the physical manoeuvre and attrition. So, this was not just military, but psychological – taking the war to the enemy in a very "in your face" sort of way. And it may be working.
Many expected that the US forces would encircle Baghdad first, before driving in. But why assume resistance until you find it? Colonel David Perkins, commanding 2nd Brigade of the US 3rd Infantry Division, estimated 1,000 Iraqis had been killed and 100 vehicles destroyed in the limited push on central Baghdad in "a most audacious, bloody and destructive" attack.
As Maj-Gen Buford Blount, commanding the 3rd Division, said, "We countered his IO [information operations] campaign." The Iraqi government in Baghdad had denied the US forces were anywhere near the capital. "This showed them it's not true', said Maj-Gen Blount. "We're here!"
The apppearance of US troops in metropolitan Baghdad had psychological and political, as well as military, value. It was an incursion, sending a message to the Iraqi people and regime. The most important part of that message now is probably that the Allied forces will stay and not let the Iraqi population down in the way they are clearly perceived to have done in 1991. If you believe the story that Iraqis are reluctant to welcome the British and Americans because they fear reprisals from Saddam's regime, then the sight of US forces in the outskirts of Baghdad must have an important psychological as well as military effect.
Meanwhile, the massive "unconventional" attacks on US forces who seized the airport on Thursday night, promised on Friday, have not, so far, materialised.
The Iraqi Information Minister, Mohammed Saeed al-Sahaf, said these would not involve "weapons of mass destruction" such as chemical agents, leading to speculation of suicide bombers and "human wave" attacks, possibly using civilians as "human shields". Mercifully, so far, these have been very limited in scale and scope. Instead it is looking increasingly as if Iraqi conventional forces are dissolving – partly because the US forces are so well-designed to find and destroy heavy armoured vehicles.
Whereas the Iraqis have eschewed conventional warfare in favour of guerrilla tactics to a large extent, Allied strategy and tactics have been largely conventional in style, though radical in concept. The 3rd Infantry division – about 25,000 troops – has been the spearpoint of the very rapid US thrust by V Corps towards Baghdad in the past two weeks. In the past few days its forces moving on Baghdad from the south-west have linked up with the 1st US Marine Expeditionary Force, moving up the Tigris from the east and south-east. This is therefore a "two-corps" assault.
US troops have closed on Baghdad from south, east and west, and the 101st Airborne Division has reportedly cut off the road to Saddam Hussein's home turf in the north of the country. "Refugees" are reported to be heading north but some of them may be Saddam supporters in disguise.
What has happened to the Iraqi army? And, indeed, to much of the six Republican Guard divisions – originally totalling 60,000 or 70,000 men? Many experts believe they have discarded their uniforms and gone home. Reports from Baghdad indicate they may be sitting in cafés, just waiting to be sure Saddam and his police and informers are really not going to come back.
There may still be some serious resistance from irregular forces in Baghdad, but by yesterday, the Iraqi army and Republican Guard were beginning to look spent as a conventional military force. I was very sceptical that conventional military power would ever again be much use in achieving political objectives. But when all else fails, there may be nothing else.
I agree, I see the same thing in my local newspaper too, The Mobile Register.
And in other news: A newly-released study confirms that apples fall downward when they leave the tree.
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