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As you know, the U.S. CDC is 99% sure SARS is a new viral variant from the corona virus family. It would seem that either the U.S. is wrong, or the Chinese are wrong.

Assuming the U.S. is right, the Chinese are either incompetent, or there are two different outbreaks. In other words, if we assume the Chinese are competent, then the original Chinese outbreak was NOT SARS.

Since China has lied repeatedly and been spectacularly uncooperative overall, it is important to remember:
We cannot yet prove that the Guangdong outbreak was actually SARS and not some other form of pneumonia.

If we assume that China has somehow decided to come clean, and that everything we are now hearing is completely true, then China was most likely hit by a new variant of Chlamydia, not SARS. This would also be consistent with the differing pattern of contagion and morbidity of the Hong Kong outbreak compared with the Guangdong outbreak.

If we choose to believe everything China is now saying, then the odds are very good (80%) that the Guangdong outbreak was a new variant of Chlamydia. The U.S. CDC says it is 99% sure SARS is a new variant of the corona virus family. If both groups are right, and they certainly could be, then we have two different diseases to deal with here.

A potentially major factor affecting the public perception of SARS in the U.S. is the probable over-reporting of cases. Here in Washington, for example, all 7 reported cases of probable SARS may be reclassified as something else. A SARS case in Portland, OR, was reclassified yesterday.

This would not matter in a perfect world. But the practical effect right now is to create the public perception that SARS is no big deal.

That could make it more difficult for your typical politician to impose the kinds of isolation/quarantine that seem to be working in Singapore. Since that is the only proven way to keep this under control, I would hate to have our key decision makers misled into thinking SARS is less serious than it really is.

Another problem with over-reporting of cases is the creation of misleading statistics. Since the United States has over 100 reported cases, and no reported deaths, the press is already saying it is not that serious a disease. They seem to have missed the fact that the U.S. is reporting "suspected" cases, not confirmed cases. The true statistics are thus completely obscured.

Hong Kong has shown us how fast SARS can spread, and what it can do to its victims. We know the best/only defense at this stage is isolation/quarantine. I would hate to see over reporting at this early stage lead to reluctance to do what needs to be done when a true problem rears its head.