Biggest push for Baghdad

American ground assault forces achieved stunning successes on two fronts in a decisive push for Baghdad today. In the first move, troops completely encircled the city of Karbala, south-west of the capital.

And in a separate action to the south-east, US marines fighting the Republican Guard near the city of Kut took a vital bridge over the Tigris, hailed by one senior officer as "the last big bridge we needed" before Baghdad.

The successes paved the way for US troops and armour to drive on for the so-called "red line" of entrenched positions encircling the approaches to Baghdad.

Allied forces took advantage of the near darkness of the new moon to make some of the most dramatic advances of the campaign.

At Karbala, commanders had expected a day-long battle to seize the perimeter of the city 68 miles from Baghdad.

But in a remarkable success, the highly mobile 3rd Infantry Division secured all major exit routes from the city in three hours.

With the key city effectively neutralised, US forces then advanced north from Karbala and engaged in big battles with two divisions of Saddam Hussein's Republican Guard at entrenched positions encircling Baghdad.

The Pentagon believes that the Medina Division of the Republican Guard which is dug in south of Baghdad has been reduced to half of its original strength after days of heavy bombardment.

American and British military sources made no secret today that the sudden onslaught marked the real start of the definitive battle for Baghdad. "This is it," one source at Central Command in Qatar said, adding: "Everything is moving up, it is clear how significant it is."

US commander General Tommy Franks has been given the "green light" to move on Baghdad itself when the time is right, said sources in Qatar.

In Washington, US defence secretary Donald Rumsfeld said "the circle is closing" on the Iraqi capital while in London Tony Blair told his war cabinet that the conflict had entered its second phase of "a steady advance" towards the Iraqi capital.

As military planners watched the movements on giant screens in Qatar, a high-ranking member of the British military effort told the Standard: "The next four days will be fascinating."

The attack on Karbala began with cruise missiles, B52 bombing raids and artillery bombardment yesterday. US infantry then launched their ground assault supported by warplanes, Apache attack helicopters and a furious artillery barrage which lit up the night sky with a succession of dazzling flashes.

"This is the big battle," a US military-official at Central Command said. It was thought a full Iraqi brigade of 6,000 men with tanks and artillery had taken up positions around Karbala.

But troops encountered very little fire as they moved on the city and took about 30 Iraqi prisoners. And in just three hours - before dawn in Iraq and shortly after 2.30am UK time - the city was surrounded.

The main Iraqi force may have retreated inside the city, but the US does not want to become embroiled in street fighting

Witnesses say the plan was to secure a bridgehead over the Euphrates to move infantry and armour up towards Baghdad.

Detailed battle plans were given to the US frontline forces yesterday and they struck on several fronts under cover of darkness.

At Kut, 96 miles south-east of Baghdad, the 1st Marine Expeditionary Force moved north from Nasiriyah and was fighting the Baghdad Division of the Republican Guard, which is thought to have 8,000 to 10,000 infantry in the city.

Helicopter gunships and AC130 "Spectre" transport planes fitted with heavy machineguns were being deployed to rain fire down on the enemy positions.

A Marine intelligence analyst said heavy bombing near Kut was intended to clear the way for ground forces. And it emerged, at around 7am UK time, that a key bridge had been taken with little resistance - the move on the eastern flank of the US advance cleared the road from Kut to Baghdad. "That's the last big bridge we needed," an officer said. "This was the plan. It's been successful."

The officer added: "Today's action is a major move. There's still tank battles continuing. We haven't had any casualties of note in the fight. We went across an existing bridge."

Elsewhere, B52 planes hit the northern Iraqi frontline near Mosul and US army and airforce attacked Fedayeen militia in Najaf, 100 miles south of Baghdad

A10 Warthog ground attack planes flew low over Najaf, opening fire on Fedayeen fighters who have offered unexpectedly stiff resistance.

Lieutenant Colonel Chris Holden of 101st Airborne said: "The target is to destroy Fedayeen units and anyone else trying to disrupt our lines of communication. We are going to destroy them."

General Richard Myers, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said serious combat was already under way against Iraqi forces and there would be "bigger pushes that will be under way as soon as we're ready".

In Baghdad, in another intriguing development, observers reported hearing "considerable" small arms.

Between Karbala and Baghdad, where Iraqi troops are, is that open territory? That is, is that a populated area, exurbs of Baghdad? Or is it open marsh/desert/farm country?

If the RG are in open territory, it seems they are just sitting ducks. Our planes could hammer them around the clock much like in 1991. I assume that's going on-- but, as always, real information about this front is scarce.

Is it possible for B1's or B2's to fly loitering missions above the battlefield, and nail targets as they present themselves? Or does stealth require a less predictable pattern than being on station? (Or is this classified?)

If the area is populated, then it's more understandable why the RG is making a stand there. More understandable, but it can't be anything other than hopeless. Surely someone in the Iraqi leadership understands this.

Either way, though, the Iraqi strategy of having the RG fight outside of Baghdad is a desperate one. Can they really be hoping we'll be stopped out there? By RG amored forces? The confrontations in 1991 were about as lopsided as any in the history of war. If anything, the odds are longer now for the Iraqis than a decade ago.

The fact that the RG don't retreat into Baghdad, despite their prospect of being slaughtered outside of Baghdad,is telling. SH must fear a massive coalition propaganda victory if Baghdad is beseiged. He must fear losing complete control of everything outside the city in that case. He may also fear an uprising from the RG itself, with its formidable weaponry, and so wants to keep them outside of the city. In any case, SH-- or whoever's running the place now-- is clearly near the end of his rope. Who knows? SH might be at the business end of an oxygen mask, but still aware of his government's impending demise. It's curtains soon, whether from Tomahawk splinters or a lead projectile, in any case.

There's a good deal of maps at this link, some show topography:

http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/iraq.html#iraq_city.html

As the advance pushes north, the RG will be forced out of their dug-in positions and put on the run. When this happens, they will be utterly obliterated by our air power. Under no circumstances will they be allowed to retreat back into Baghdad.

And yes, the airspace has lots and lots of airplanes that are on station in various places, and can swoop down in mere minutes to hit the Iraqis hard.

It's going to be an interesting several days coming up. Regards.

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