Monday 3/31 ABC News Political Unit mini-Note (Keep up with Washington Politics during the war!)

ABCNEWS | March 31, 2003

[Dont Mention the War]

From: politicalUnit@abcnews.go.com
Date: Mon Mar 31, 2003 10:36:48 AM America/New_York
To: "Political Unit Mailing List"
Subject: Monday 3/31 ABC News Political Unit mini-Note
Reply-To: politicalUnit@abcnews.go.com

Good morning, and welcome to the (regular) working week.

The Note remains on war-time footing, as does the political world, so here is your mini-Note, once again distributed by e-mail and not webly.

Please remember to tell all your friends, loved ones, and colleagues that they must sign up for this e-mail alert if they want to make sure they don't miss a single Note during the war.

Just tell them to click here and look for "Political Unit." http://login.mailpref.go.com/login?appRedirect=lists

There are four big political storylines right now:

1. How the war is affecting our politics and the President's standing.

2. How the war is affecting, and not affecting, the legislative agenda, especially Big Casino budget politics.

3. How the war is affecting the Invisible Primary.

4. Fundraising and the Invisible Primary.

Here's the latest and best from the weekend and today, all in mini form.

WAR AND POLITICS

The presidential schedulers found a way to send Mr. Bush to Pennsylvania today.

In related news: When will we start seeing stories about how a potentially longer-than-expected war could keep the economy from improving in time for the President's (anticipated) re-election bid?

And does today's Wall Street Journal story -- leading thusly -- count as one of them?

"Consumer spending was weak last month, a further indication that the approach to war, a soft labor market and higher energy prices have been weighing on the minds of consumers."

On the war and how it is going, as seen through the canapé-strewn battlefields of Washington's salons (and for the virtually off-the-record McCain view), keep reading every Johnny Apple story.

Here's his Sunday effort, all gloom and doom. http://www.nytimes.com/2003/03/30/international/worldspecial/29CND-ASSE.html

His colleague Ms. Bumiller played a role in history by creating a new paradigm about how hands-on the President is in guiding and monitoring the war, in Sunday's New York Times. http://www.nytimes.com/2003/03/30/international/worldspecial/30BUSH.html?pagewanted=all&position=top

What, pray tell, is Bill Safire's definition of "organized"? http://www.nytimes.com/2003/03/31/opinion/31SAFI.html

Kessler/Pincus have a remarkable Washington Post front-page story today that leads thusly:

“The first 11 days of the war have brought back with a vengeance the deep splits that have long existed within the Bush administration and the Republican Party over policy toward Iraq.”

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A55177-2003Mar30.html

“Already there is a behind-the-scenes effort by former senior Republican government officials and party leaders to convince President Bush that the advice he has received from Vice President Cheney, Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld and Deputy Defense Secretary Paul D. Wolfowitz -- a powerful triumvirate frequently at odds with Secretary of State Colin L. Powell -- has been wrong and even dangerous to long-term U.S. national interests.”

What’s remarkable about the story is that it doesn’t name a single one of these “former senior Republican government officials and party leaders,” although guessing their identities will be a Monday parlor game in Washington to be sure.

Robert Bartley's Wall Street Journal column mentions Joe Leiberman [sic], Dick Gephardt, and Tom Daschle, and posits that the Democratic party is a mess, because of the war, and because of virtually every other issue on the table.

Across the page, there is a Journal editorial attacking ABC alum Chuck Lewis, and a Richard Perle op-ed defending himself.

For those of you who missed Pat Buchanan's prediction on the McLaughlin shoutfest over the weekend: watch to see what happens with the other members of the Defense Policy Board and their financial dealings, even in this time of war.

WAR AND THE LEGISLATIVE AGENDA

Jim VandeHei got all the way to A5 of the Washington Post on Sunday with this major domestic matter:

"With Bush focused mostly on the war in Iraq, a small but crucial number of GOP lawmakers has broken ranks and dealt significant blows to several of his highest-profile policies. The president's $726 billion tax cut proposal has been sliced in half, his plan for oil drilling in Alaska defeated, his faith-based plan stripped to its bare bones and his cap on medical malpractice lawsuit damages put on life support."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A48911-2003Mar29.html

And VanedHei's "to be sure" paragraph actually starts with the words "to be sure"!!!!

"To be sure, Bush remains extraordinarily popular with congressional Republicans and is likely to win backing for a rare wartime tax cut, albeit smaller and perhaps markedly different than the one he proposed in January."

And Mr. VH has some great reporting:

"Bush has vowed to fight for a much bigger tax cut when the House and Senate meet this week, but a senior administration official predicted that last week's Senate vote will trim at least $200 billion from the original proposal when all is said and done. One White House official said Bush will be lucky to walk away with $500 billion in total tax cuts, including a 50 percent reduction in the dividend tax."

Which would be welcome news to Dean Broder, whose Sunday column suggested he doesn't like either budget at all, because he sees a Robin-Hood-in-reverse thing going on.http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A45064-2003Mar28.html

And Ron Brownstein's column today shows he likes the Bush budget in its House and Senate incarnations even less than Broder does. http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-outlook31mar31,1,3813864.column?coll=la%2Dheadlines%2Dpolitics

Face it: Ron has NEVER liked these Bush tax cuts, but this sentence will make some of you faint: "Private congressional estimates project that, excluding the money raised for Social Security, the federal government could run a deficit of as much as $530 billion this year, by far the largest ever."

While Brownstein uses a hit-by-a-truck metaphor, the Washington Post ed board uses a too-much-candy one to make the same point. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A55369-2003Mar30.html

The New York Times' David Firestone looks at the (squish!) conservative movement's worst nightmare: the rising influence and independent streak of congressional Republican moderates. http://www.nytimes.com/2003/03/31/politics/31MODE.html

And the Washington Post's Eilperin and Dewar have a "sizable contingent of liberal and deficit hawks" (you know who they are) musing on whether the President's partial defeat on the tax cut plan last week coulda/shoulda been scaled back even farther. Like, all the way. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A54561-2003Mar30.html

Goodness help Nick Lewis, who got major column inches in Sunday's New York Times to look at the Estrada stand off. http://www.nytimes.com/2003/03/30/politics/30ESTR.html?pagewanted=all&position=top

WAR AND THE INVISIBLE PRIMARY The New York Times' Adam Nagourney went all the way to Onawa, Iowa to document Jim Jordan's latest attempts to bait Dr. Dean into a fight on defense policy. http://www.nytimes.com/2003/03/29/international/worldspecial/29DEAN.html

Concordian Holly Ramer of the AP wins the "how many ways can Iowa and New Hampshire reporters write the same war/campaigning lead?" award with this: "Making the rounds of a crowded diner, Sen. Joseph Lieberman praised one woman's choice of waffles and won praise from another customer for not waffling on Iraq."

National Review's website has a pretty good history and analysis of Dr. Dean, the other candidates, and the war. http://www.nationalreview.com/comment/comment-geraghty032803.asp

FUNDRAISING AND THE INVISIBLE PRIMARY With today's deadline for first quarter contributions to be taken in, we just might see one or more campaigns come forward with their macro fundraising figures.

The AP tries to hedge their bets in previewing the outcome, with Dean zeroing in on an impressive $1.5 million (that's a lot of zeros), and Gephardt, Edwards, and Kerry looking to rake in $4 to $5 million and beyond (Kerry). http://www.theunionleader.com/prez_show.html?article=19566

And our feelings weren't hurt at all by this section from an e-mail that Governor Dean sent last night at 8:30pm to a select group of supporters:

"Journalists love to speculate about which candidates are doing well in the 'invisible primary.' Long before Iowa and New Hampshire, pundits like to think they can assess who will do well in the elections by who is raising the most money. But there is another primary that is only invisible to those who are blind to seeing it. Its place of power is on the Internet, where people who never before had a voice this early in a campaign can speak up and demand honesty and fearless leadership from the Democratic Party, and self-organize around common ideas and ideals to take our country back."

"One invisible primary is about money and posturing for position."

"Our movement is about taking a stand, and giving people a reason to vote."

The fact that it probably went to fewer people than attended then-Governor Bush's 1999 finance meeting at Palmer Auditorium shouldn't bother anyone. http://www.austinconventioncenter.com/Releases/index_PEC.htm

(Close readers will know that Palmer Auditorium is across the street from where the once famous Armadillo World Headquarters used to stand -- the place where Mark McKinnon once fronted for Asleep at the Wheel. The reception was so underwhelming, he went into politics, and ended up working for that very same Governor George Bush.) http://www.austinlinks.com/Music/armheadq.html

Howard Dean talking point: money does not always rule in New Hampshire elections. http://www.theunionleader.com/articles_show.html?article=19615

THE INVISIBLE PRIMARY

David Lightman gets the real (estate) scoop, on Joe Lieberman opening up a bunch of offices all over America, plus getting a Sallet, a "veteran" Ravitz, and a Gerstein. http://www.ctnow.com/news/politics/hc-joehqs0331.artmar31,0,3895533.story?coll=hc%2Dheadlines%2Dpolitics

Heaven love the northern New England press corps, which, even during armed conflict, can still cover the heck out of a candidate visit to the Granite State.

Joe Lieberman's jaunt got full coverage, including in this first story, in which the Senator stalls for time on the Michigan v. New Hampshire battle. http://www.theunionleader.com/prez_show.html?article=19564

There's also http://www.nashuatelegraph.com/Main.asp?SectionID=25&SubSectionID=378&ArticleID=76829 and

http://www.theunionleader.com/articles_show.html?article=19545 and

http://www.boston.com/dailyglobe2/088/nation/By_backing_troops_Lieberman_earns_voters_support+.shtml

By the time you read this, Senator Lieberman will probably have already given his speech to the Union of American Hebrew Congregations "consultation on conscience" conference.

This is what one Lieberman adviser calls the Senator's "first significant speech to a religious group...since he announced" for president. He was expected to talk about the link between religious values and social progress.

AIPAC says policy and logistics kept them from hearing from the Democrats Who Would Be President. http://www.boston.com/dailynews/088/wash/POLITICAL_NOTEBOOK_Nine_candid:.shtml

The AP's Mike Glover wonders just how far Howard Dean's hot-hot-hot status can take him. http://www.boston.com/dailynews/089/region/Dean_claims_momentum_for_the_m:.shtml

By holding firm as the Democrats' Democrat, and by building on strong momentum with charisma and indignation, Dean has Glover envisioning another Jimmy Carter in the making. And we don't mean he's angling for the Nobel Prize.

Will this cut into the momentum? The AP reports that Dean's campaign manager Rick Ridder is stepping down April 15, to be replaced by Dean's media consultant Joe Trippi. http://www.theunionleader.com/Articles_show.html?article=19637&archive=1

The Union Leader editorial page mocks the alleged fumblings and grumblings of the Democratic hopefuls. http://www.unionleader.com/articles_show.html?article=19607

The same page rebukes Dr. Dean for his "'wrong war and the wrong time'" remark, offering up the example of Pat Buchanan as how a troop-loving patriot with alternative views on strategy behaves in times of battle. Other anti-war Democrats get chided as well, yet Dean is practically offered up the costume of the Republican Guard. http://www.unionleader.com/articles_show.html?article=19581

The Washington Times' Charles Hurt throws a few more logs on the fire that is the bloc of Southern voters. Apparently they are still up for grabs and considered vital for winning both the nomination and the general in 2004. http://washingtontimes.com/national/20030330-539338.htm

Once again, Steve Jarding is credited with having a supernatural pull on Southern rural voters, regardless of what the Edwards campaign says.

Juliet Eilperin, the Sunday Washington Post, the wooing of House super delegates, Dick Gephardt, and John Edwards -- all in one tight little package. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A49267-2003Mar29.html

What was Jane Norman trying to say about Gordan Fischer in this very complex paragraph from Sunday's Des Moines Register?

"Gordon Fischer, the new and highly-visible chairman of the state party, weighed in the day of the vote with news releases, radio comments (at a telephone number in northern Virginia) and phone calls to reporters." http://www.dmregister.com/opinion/stories/c5917686/20874341.html

It's not quite "H," "E," double hockey sticks freezing over, but Dave Yepsen praised Governor Vilsack for his attempts to change the tone of Iowa politics by interacting with the legislature. http://www.dmregister.com/opinion/stories/c5917686/20841088.html

Does teaching New Hampshire activists how to question the presidential candidates amount to turning grass roots into Astroturf?

You make the call: http://www.theunionleader.com/articles_show.html?article=19591

Even the Union Leader ed board is worried about the state's economy. http://www.theunionleader.com/articles_show.html?article=19608

Dennis Kucinich and Marin County: perfect together. http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2003/03/31/MN176142.DTL

Lee Bandy yesterday pushed that Jim Clyburn phantom endorsement of Congressman Gephardt story just about as fer as it could go. http://www.thestate.com/mld/thestate/news/politics/5516843.htm

It looks like Kevin Landrigan is going to need some quality face-time with Senator Edwards when the latter fellow is back in the state. http://www.nashuatelegraph.com/Main.asp?SectionID=30&SubSectionID=86&ArticleID=76958

The Charlotte Observer's Tim Funk provides a thorough assessment of where (once and still and future?) golden-boy John Edwards' presidential campaign stands, after enduring high-profile criticism for his Iraq stance (the boos! the picketing!) and the loss of big-name campaign consultants. http://www.charlotte.com/mld/observer/news/local/5516277.htm.

As David Axelrod points out, the war is "'a tricky situation for all the candidates…Right now, it defines the kind of campaign activity you can do. As for long term, it'll depend on how attitudes (about the war) have evolved by next January,'" and offers the truth that if Edwards collects a lot of money, following a period of quiet but intense fundraising, "'the fickle political community will re-lionize him and spin him back into the flavor of the month.'"

Ed Tibbetts of the Quad Cities Times Notes that Elizabeth Edwards didn't hold back while campaigning for her husband in Iowa, slamming President Bush for squandering international goodwill and compassion brought on by the tragedy of September 11, and complaining "We’re the biggest, baddest cowboy in town." http://www.qctimes.com/internal.php?story_id=1010110&l=1&t=Local+News&c=2,1010110

Sunday's Rush and Molloy had a detailed second-hand account of Al Gore on Michael Moore and the Oscars. http://www.nydailynews.com/news/gossip/story/71206p-66136c.html

Oh, and happy birthday, Al Gore!!! http://www.oaklandtribune.com/Stories/0,1413,82~1865~1284794,00.html

POLITICS The services and burial today for the late Senator Moynihan are closed press.

Last nights Clinton v. Dole segment on 60 Minutes (about whether the country should be debating domestic policy issues during war, sort of) proved

1. This deal will never work unless the two gentlemen sit in the same room. 2. Some things never change: Clinton is STILL getting his talking points from Rahm Emanuel. (He even mentioned more cops on the street!)

We'd link you to the transcript, but CBS cares so much about the segment that they still have the one from two weeks ago up there. http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2003/03/16/60minutes/main544160.shtml

The AP's Jonathan D. Salant picks up the Center for Public Integrity's study on where 51 of the 100 top Clinton administration officials landed since the White House changed hands in 2000. Answer: D.C., lobbying the government. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A54556-2003Mar30.html

According to the CPI report, the Washington revolving door continues to revolve apace, as the numbers are pretty much the same for previous administrations. Catch up with some old headliners!

The Wall Street Journal says on A2: "Despite the threat of sanctions from the World Trade Organization, President Bush is unlikely to end the steel tariffs designed to stabilize U.S. steel producers. The industry, while improved from a year ago, remains fragile, and much needed consolidation could unravel if imports flood the market."

We don't want to embarrass or unduly praise anyone, but we will say this: there is no greater two-step in politics than when a political committee's opposition research staff plants some research in a major newspaper, and then the same party's communication's staff cites the clip in a press release.

Validation all around!!!!! And you know who you are.

All our best,

The Note

[Dont Mention the War]

Oh, I give up. I started out trying to format it better and make live links out of all the URLs, but I gotta go to lunch.