Mystery Virus Cases Rising (BIG INCREASE ALERT)

The Australian ^ | March 31, 2003

[EternalHope]

Mystery virus cases rising From correspondents in Hong Kong 31mar03

HONG KONG took drastic new measures today to combat a killer pneumonia as nearly 100 more cases were reported in the territory amid growing disruption to travel and business across Asia.

The increasingly fraught battle to contain Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome came as the US authorities warned the virus could be more contagious than first thought and advised against travel to parts of Asia. The mysterious illness has now infected more than 1600 people in 15 countries and killed at least 59 people.

It erupted in southern China, spread to Hong Kong and has been taken worldwide by airline passengers.

The Hong Kong authorities today isolated an entire housing block for 10 days in an attempt to control the epidemic after 213 people on the estate were found to be infected - a rise of 92 overnight.

The virus has now killed 13 people and infected nearly 630 in the city, and Health Secretary Yeoh Eng-kiong said the Amoy Gardens estate was put in isolation because the authorities were alarmed by the "huge increase" in cases.

Yeoh said no hypothesis had been ruled out in the battle against SARS, raising the possibility of a newly-mutated form of the virus that could undergo airborne transmission or survive extended periods of time on open surfaces.

Over the weekend the US Centres for Disease Control said the virus could move freely through the air and contaminate an object for as many as three hours. It also warned US citizens to avoid affected areas.

During the isolation period at Amoy Gardens, no-one will be allowed to enter or leave the estate without express permission in writing of a health officer.

Medical personnel will visit residents, who will be given three meals a day free of charge as well as help and advice to clean and disinfect their flats.

A quarantine law invoked by Hong Kong Chief Executive Tung Chee-hwa last Thursday as part of tougher measures to contain the respiratory illness, which included the closure of all schools until April 6, took effect today.

The SARS outbreak is causing growing unease in the former British colony, emptying restaurants and shopping malls, and forcing most residents to wear face masks in public.

The authorities have been disinfecting streets and public facilities and cleansed 160 public housing estates yesterday as part of efforts to combat the spread of the virus.

The outbreak is also starting to impact on airlines across Asia who have begun cancelling or rearranging schedules as demand for tickets to affected areas such as mainland China, Hong Kong and Vietnam plunges.

Meanwhile health officials in Canada's largest province, Ontario, confirmed yesterday a fourth victim of SARS, which was brought into the country by a traveller returning from a family visit to Hong Kong.

In Singapore, the Ministry of Health announced the island state's third death from SARS yesterday.

The latest deaths bring the worldwide toll from SARS to 59, with 34 deaths in China, 13 in Hong Kong, four in Vietnam, four in Canada, three in Singapore and one in Thailand.

Fears of further transmission of the disease to Taiwan prompted Taipei to yesterday propose cancelling a fledgling scheme that allows semi-direct links with rival China.

Direct links between the two, severed after a 1949 Chinese civil war, were restored on a limited basis in 2000 via intermediary islands.

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[EternalHope]

This a HUGE increase. And it could not possibly have come from "close contact".

This is very "not good" folks.

[bonesmccoy]

this is getting idiotic.

This is NOT a huge increase and the mortality rate of the disease can not be extrapolated from the existing data set.

[geopyg]

I was encouraged when I read that only about 10% chance of dying from it.... however - later they say no known treatment. Now does that mean you just end up having pneumonia forever, or will it "go away". (If it doesn't just "go away" , I'm thinking the 10% folks are the lucky ones!)

[EternalHope]

YOU are getting idiotic. Read the article next time.

The increase in Hong Kong is 92 people, mostly (ALL?) from the same apartment complex. They could not possibly have been infected from "close contact", meaning some other mechanism of infection must have been involved.

The way it was spread has not been determined, but it is most likely through the air, and had to be a lot further than 1 meter. IF it was spread some other way, the implication is still the same: This thing spread VERY easily.

And remember, I am the one who has been making the consistent point that the mortality rate cannot be extrapolated from the existing data, not you, so don't give me that BS either.

[hole_n_one]

The Buffalo Sabres are on a 4 game win streak despite the fact that two players are under "quarantine" for having been in contact with someone who was exposed to someone with SARS ( Source)

Go figure.

[per loin]

154 families got out the door before they quarantined it.

[hole_n_one]

Just a heads up....

be prepared for the I'm a board certified physician arguement from bones.

[EternalHope]

154 families got out the door before they quarantined it.

An increase of 92 in one day, on a base of somewhere around 600 (don't recall the exact figure for Hong Kong), is about 15.3% in one day. At that rate it doubles in five days.

But the real significance is that a single person infected so many people, and so easily. How many more people in Hong Kong did this same person infect?

[per loin]

The immediate cause of the epidemic in Hong Kong was also a doctor.

[per loin]

The 92 are all from the Amoy Garden. I'd suspect that there are also others today in HK. But just using the 92 figure, that's a one day increase of 17.36% in HK. Full figures should be available later in the day.

[InShanghai]

This is NOT a huge increase and the mortality rate of the disease can not be extrapolated from the existing data set.

What would you consider a good data set? You have to understand, as my handle suggests, I'm in Shanghai. I am concerned about SARS and I would like to keep up with the information being posted.

The local gov't news outlets are not reporting any of this. I've been keeping my ear to the grapevine by talking with locals about what they know, while trying to give them more information. As another Freeper suggested:

As always, when folks can't get trustable facts, the rumor mill churns what it may.

I'd expect that if the disease is spreading in China, that'll be known on the rumor conduits before the Chinese government acknowledges it. Let us know if you start hearing rumors.

Could this really be a case of reporters just putting their fingers on the panic button?

[EternalHope]

Just a heads up....

be prepared for the I'm a board certified physician argument from bones.

Yeah, I know. Doesn't mean squat, either. I have more total education than he does, and know a helluva lot more about math. Does that mean I win?

Furthermore, I'll bet I can out arm wrestle him, and outshoot him too. SO THERE!

[Neuromancer]

How many more people in Hong Kong did this same person infect?


What a great point. I hadn't thought of that. I understand he infected all these people just by visiting his family in the complex? How is that possible? Did he infect all the people in the other places he visited?

[bonesmccoy]

It means that in more than 93 percent of patients (and probably much higher percentage); your body successfully fights off the disease and you will survive.

I have not heard of any data on long term pulmonary function tests.

I doubt they have the long-term data on PFT's because they haven't been able to successfully make a virologic diagnosis yet.

This is the reason that I am beginning to pass the 90% confidence level for the following:

1. UN WHO health investigators have overstated the "global health emergency"

2. CDC's Geberding is appropriately concerned about this emerging disease but appears unwilling to panic the US population.

3. China has utterly failed the world by showing the complete and utter disaster that is Communist controlled healthcare.

4. Canada has utterly shown the same exact factor... centralized control of healthcare (and lack of free market economics) risks lives.

[bonesmccoy]

It isn't BS to point out that the prevalence and incidence of SARS in the Chinese population is unknown.

Have you DONE ANY math regarding contagion????

If the disease started to emerge in November of last year (as KABC TV's story sunday AM stated), then the contagion of this virus is NOT very high.

[bonesmccoy]

Are YOU a board certified physician????

And the CROWD says "NOT!"

[stlnative]

ignore bones... (thank you for the post and keeping folks up to date) I am really concerned about this, only because my mother's boss was sent to China the day before all this hit the news. He is still in China and is due to come back during April, my concern is that he may be allowed to return if he feels well and but could be in the early stages of it if caught it right before he is to return home. He may return work not knowing he has it and infect the people at his work including my mother. It all sounds way out there, but there is reason to be concerned or to be on guard if you are around someone who has just came from China. The company my mother works for, was expecting some Chinese from China to come into her work place, but she has heard that they are having problems getting passports or something to that effect. I am wondering if China is stopping China residents from leaving the country now due to this. I wonder if her boss may be put in quarantine before he comes back. I wonder to if this something that is living in the airplane environments and if is like the Cruise Boat problems they have had this past year, except on higher level.

[bonesmccoy]

That math is utter nonsense!

This "virus" emerged in November of last year.

At the spread rate you are suggesting, the virus would have penetrated every person on Earth already.

What a lark!

[nopardons]

The people here, hyperventilating about SARS, just thoroughly enjoy scaring themselves. If they ONLY knew the history of various diseases ( like the pandemic of Flu, after WW I, for example ), they'd better be able to put this in perpective.