How long will the war last?

Lieutenant-General William Wallace, US Army commander in the Persian Gulf, gave this assessment March 27: "The enemy we’re fighting is a bit different than the one we wargamed against, because of these (fedayeen) paramilitary forces."

My translation: US war planners didn’t anticipate extensive death squad tactics.

Military staffs use "game" techniques, experience, and current intelligence data to examine friendly and enemy combat options. They attempt to "see the battle as our enemy sees it and fight the battle his way, not our way." Goals include spurring creative thinking and exposing assumptions to critique. Commanders try to use these insights to craft better plans. A recognized weakness in U.S. wargaming is the "fake bad guys" rarely prove to be as ruthless as the genuine bad guys. Playing "dirty as Saddam" is tough. The real world’s socio-paths and sadists one-up the imaginations of even the best crime writers.

A war plan provides a time frame. No war ever quite follows the plan, for many reasons. The enemy isn’t stupid. The brass doesn’t boss the weather.

Despite the general’s admission, I’m convinced the fedayeen represent more of a political problem than military problem.

The Pacific island campaigns in WWII provide a historical example. Once organized Japanese resistance ceased and the allies had an island’s airfields and ports operating, the brass would declare the place "secure." Infantry regiments would withdraw to refit for the next amphibious assault. The "major operation" was over– but tell that to the Navy SeaBees on the "secure island" who would scrap with snipers for months after the front had officially moved forward.

In Iraq the fedayeen’s low-level resistance could flicker for months. That’s one reason US Army Chief of Staff Eric Shinseki says peacekeeping in post-Saddam Iraq will require more ground troops.

Guerrillas need popular support, but the Iraqi people fear the fedayeen. British troops report civilians are telling them where the paramilitaries hide. The population isn’t protecting the fascists. That suggests pro-Saddam holdouts may use guerrilla tactics but they’re death squads, not a guerrilla force.

Baghdad is the real "big game." Thus the more discerning question: "How long will major military operations continue until the game is up in Baghdad?"

In early February, using a wargame originally developed in 1990 for ABC News Nightline, I looked at several Iraq attack options.

The allied forces actually in Kuwait on March 20 appeared in those games. However, the games also included the US 4th Infantry Division and one brigade of the US 1st Armored Division. Those units weren’t in the line March 20th.

An option close to what appears to be the actual plan was dubbed "The Slow Roll." "The Slow Roll" had two variants, one with two fronts (Turkey and Kuwait) and one with a "Kuwait only" front. The game assumptions included US air supremacy, abundant smart bombs, and stiff Republican Guard resistance.

Major combat operations –meaning the destruction of Repubican Guard units around Baghdad-- took 15 days to 25 days to conclude. With a northern front and no hitches, 15 days. The south-only attack took 25 days, but that was with the presence of the 4th Infantry Division. One had parachute and helicopter units seizing the big airfields in western Iraq. Apparently CENTCOM took those with Green Berets.

"The Slow Roll" did get a few things right. It assumed the allies would try to minimize civilian casualties and protect oil facilities. The gaming does suggest that until the 4th Infantry arrives the allies risk a shortage of combat troops– a worry voiced by several old soldiers. Add the 4th Infantry’s arrival time and the games indicate big operations could last five to six weeks. I’ll trot out that guess, fully aware history pummels guess work. However, it’s a fair bet that the destruction of the Republican Guards will mean the political destruction of Saddam’s regime. The February games missed the 3rd Infantry’s jaw-dropping dash to Baghdad. CENTCOM may well have another surprise

Whenever I need solid, realistic analysis about what's going on I go to Strategypage.com. In this case, I think Bay is right on target. The talk of a 4-6 day delay seems like a fake to me. We aren't going to stop hammering them, and there's simply too much firepower already in place for us not to utilize our advantage. I honestly think the II Marine Exp. Force will be something that surprises all of us in the near future.

Austin Bay, who is a serious military analyst seems to be saying two things:

First, the mopping-up operations are going to take a fairly long time, but that the feyadeen are more a police or pacification, rather than a serious military problem.

Second, he is saying that CENTCOM anticipated a much longer war than may now be the case. The relevant "Slow Roll" estimated 25 days to the destruction of the IRG. It did not anticipate a lightning advance to Baghdad.

This is a categorical rejection of the the punditry which assumes the US underestimated the difficulty of the war. If anything, they thought it would be harder. On one matter, Bay remains silent. He throws no light on the importance of the role of the Marine attack across Mesopotamia. The press represents it as a kind of muddling around.

Currently, Iranian sources are reporting that the Marines have crossed the Tigris, and that the Iraqis are blowing the dams to prevent an advance on the east side of the Tigris, the Iranian border side. If so, this could be the "surprise" Bay hints at.

Cutting an enemy country in half is something the US Armed Forces have done in every campaign since the Civil War, but that does not reduce it's effectiveness. The Army may have had the lion's share of the news, but if the Marines have truly formed a Euphrates-Tigris line, the decisive blow will truly have been struck by the USMC.

The first leap is over. The logistic bases will be moved forward, along with the air bases (mainly helicopters) and follow-on forces. In the meantime, the rear will be cleaned up along with continuation of the air campaign. That will probably continue for about 2-3 weeks. Then "all of a sudden" a great leap into and through Bagdad will end this mess. that stage could be another 2-3 weeks.

The war is the Terror War on America, second Battle of Saddmn's Iraq. This war may last generations if we do not stomp the heart out of pan-Islamists backed by post-commie fascism weapons systems and intel.

This Battle of Saddamn's Iraq may last until Easter, or into the summer if Iraqis are truly suicidal.

Please, Syria, ship weapons systems into Iraq.

"The war is the Terror War on America, second Battle of Saddmn's Iraq."

Agreed. With two national regime changes under our belts, the remaining problem nations SHOULD recognize our resolve.

In a way, it could turn to our strategic benefit, that the UN played debate games, and we acted in our interests, anyway.

The message: The US isn't playing international diplomatic games. They WILL deal with the arab-muslim-terrorism threat, decisively, regardless of what the rest of the world thinks.

I recall a phrase: "I'd rather be respected, than be liked."

We know they don't like us. Maybe the best available outcome is that they respect us, because they fear us.

Reasonable nations will take heed; unreasonable nations can be replaced.

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