U.S. Hawk Defends His 'Cakewalk' Prediction on Iraq

Reuters ^ | Friday, March 28, 2003 | Arshad Mohammed

[ambrose]

Arshad Mohammed

I'm sure this author has not hidden agenda or bias.

[Deathmonger]

When you measure what I predicted as against Armageddon engulfing the Middle East

Well today you had Rumsfeld threatening to expand the war to Syria and Iran. We're certainly well on the way to Armgeddon engulfing the Middle east.

[EternalVigilance]

Sheesh, these leftwing Islamo-loving pukes are desperate.

They are attempting to create an atmosphere in which they can build enough political pressure to harm or stop the war effort.

The thought of a quick war terrifies them.

[Keith]

as long as it is done before April 20, he's right. I stay with weeks vs. months...let's see.

[EternalVigilance]

Hey, we now have those two terror-supporting states, Iran and Syria, flanked.

That's worth even more than taking out Hussein.

[MEG33]

I googled yesterday to find the cakewalk author and there it was ,Adelman. It was a stupid thing to say. He is not the Commander in Chief.

[Willie Green]

Wasn't he a wide receiver for the 49ers?
Or am I thinking of someone else?

[Frumious Bandersnatch]

The bottom line is he got it wrong," Gordon said. "Even with the major force that we have put in there, we are struggling and Saddam is not collapsing quickly and they are putting up fierce resistance."

The fastest advance in military history, few casualties in the week this war has lasted, within days (probably) of winning the war, and Gordon is gloom and doom?  Wonder what he will say after the dust settles?

[Mister Baredog]

Well today you had Rumsfeld threatening to expand the war to Syria and Iran. We're certainly well on the way to Armgeddon engulfing the Middle east.

Come on. Clear your head. That was a demonstration of "peace through strength" which I believe is our best chance of survival even if the world doesn't like it. Who else would we wish to cede control to?

[MEG33]

Agreed

[AmusedBystander]

Some conservatives had argued that the war with Iraq would be relatively easy,

It's always "some consevatives" when in reality ol' Bill Clinton himself said even more recently that it would be quicker than any "conservative" ever stated. I wish these articles could be written after the event is over before pronouncing it one way or another.

[no-s]

See also No Cakewalk from CNN. Adelman's comments were made during the debate last year, and he wrote his remarks in his capacity on the Defense Policy Board, he was not a Pentagon official.

The people arching their eyebrows over the "cakewalk" remark, Media and Dem types, all seem to be acting in concert. Those were the guys thinking it was going to be a cakewalk? Looks like they skipped the rest of the debate.

However, there seems to be a number of items Adelman got right. We'll have to wait and see for the rest of it, but so far the oil fields seem to be in good shape. Of course, Adelman's article was written in 2002.

[colorado tanker]

"Cakewalk" was a dumb thing to put in a published piece because there have to be some fights and casualties. To a soldier caught in a firefight or a family mourning a loved one, war is not a "cakewalk."

That said, we've moved to within 50 miles of Baghdad taking only about 20 casualties. It's hard to imagine a war going any better.

And there is no guerilla war. Most people think of guerilla war as an indigenous insurgency. We don't have that. We have isolated units and irregulars putting on civies and resorting to hit and run tactics. These are deadenders and conscripts threateded with death. As they are killed or chased off, the attacks diminish. There is no insurgency in Basra, only deadender Baathists terrorizing the population in a last gasp.

So far, Adelman has been shown right, despite his poor choice of words.

[Kay Soze]

Excellent catch:

"See also No Cakewalk from CNN. Adelman's comments were made during the debate last year, and he wrote his remarks in his capacity on the Defense Policy Board, he was not a Pentagon official."

[rageaholic]

I doubt he calculated that Sodumb would use his bug spray, either. But now that he's dead and his conspirators are going to be dead, odds are they will use it. More candies will be given out in Palestine.

[devo]

The full Adelman article can be found at
http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A1996-2002Feb12?language=printer

I think most of us have underestimated the Iraqi regime- which is why we're sending over another 100,000 troops.

From various news sources coming out of the defence dept there has obviously been some degree of "debate" between its uniformed generals and civilian leadership about the size of any military force needed to invade Iraq- with Rumsfeld incorrectly supporting the concept of a small mobile force being suffice.

As conservatives we all agree that the government has little place in running the economy (leave it to the market). In the same way the government has little place in planning and running a war (leave it to the military). It would seem those in the civilian leadership, like Rumsfeld, have been proven wrong- but so what- we'll still win the war.

[HockeyPop]

Unfortunately, the author did not disclose the date of Adelman's article. Had Germany and Russia bellied up to the bar with the US and Great Britain, Iraqi resolve would have been greatly diminished. I suspect many in the DOD expected greater international backing and watching the Iraqis surrender en masse like rats in a firestorm.

"If the enemy is to be coerced, you must put him in a situation that is even more unpleasant than the sacrifice you call on him to make. The hardships of the situation must not be merely transient - at least not in appearance. Otherwise, the enemy would not give in, but would wait for things to improve." -Carl von Clausewitz

[Kay Soze]

"All these people need to calm down, take a deep breath, and read their history — computing the logistics of fighting 7,000 miles away and considering the hurdles of vast space, unpredictable weather, and enemies without uniforms."

And?

"In just a week, the United States military has surrounded one of history’s most sadistic and nasty regimes. It has overrun 80 percent of the countryside and has daily pulverized the Republican Guard, achieving more in five days than the Iranians did in eight years."

"Gulf War I is considered a great victory; it required 48 days of air and ground attacks by an enormous coalition to expel the Iraqi army from Kuwait."

"Our present attempt, with half the force, seeks to end Saddam Hussein altogether — and on day 7 already had him cut off, trapped, and besieged."

[colorado tanker]

If Rumsfeld is to be criticized it's for deciding on a "rolling start" after he learned he wasn't going to get the 4th ID in through Turkey, so he started the operation short of a planned heavy division. The 4th won't be available through Kuwait for another couple of weeks.

Rummy may have planned around that. Something is being flown into the airhead in Northern Iraq seized by the 173rd and the rumor is the 1st ID.

We still don't know what the heck is in Western Iraq, which seems blacked out. There are lots of rumors about the 2nd MEF.

The units after the 4th ID and 3rd ACR, the so-called 100,000, have been planned for months as stabilization forces or a reserve if needed; they aren't being rushed in to remedy some mistake.

We have plenty of units to destroy the three Guards division around Baghdad, beseige Baghdad and go after the leadership and deadenders with air and spec ops assests, if that's the plan. If the plan is to repeat the Battle of Berlin and reduce Baghdad building by building, the whole Army probably isn't enough.